Featured, March 2016, USMNT, USWNT

Guatemalan Gut Check: With World Cup Qualification In Peril, Thoughts on How Americans Got Here

Jurgen Klinsmann addresses the media last November. He's under fire today.

Jurgen Klinsmann addresses the media last November. He’s under fire today.

Neil W. Blackmon

The U.S. lost 2-0 at the Estadio Nacional in Guatemala City Friday night, the first loss by an American senior side to Los Chapines since 1988. The defeat ended resoundingly a U.S. federation best 21 game unbeaten streak over an opponent, and delivered the men’s national program Jurgen Klinsmann directs another blow in what has been a trending series of setbacks dating back to at least the summer of 2015.

If we’re taking the long view, the troubles may have started even earlier, against Belgium in Salvador in the round of 16 at the 2014 World Cup or perhaps in the slog and mud of rainy Recife. The “when” is less the point than the fact that the trend can no longer be disputed: the Americans have been reeling for some time now, playing reactive and on the backfoot, with little in the way of coherent style or tactical imagination. 

Friday might not have been rock bottom, though that’s a reasonable and widely-held take.

Yes, losing with no doubt to Guatemala- in a World Cup qualifier no less- for the first time since the Reagan Administration, a full year before Paul Caligiuiri ushered in what is widely considered the modern era of American soccer lies somewhere in the dark, pale shadows that surround the caverns of rock bottom. But the American Olympic team, led by Jurgen Klinsmann’s confidante and friend Andi Herzog managed to score an early goal and salvage a stunning draw on the road in Colombia, thus leaving the imprimatur of a slight band of sunshine on a gloomy day as a whole.

Both results matter as Jurgen Klinsmann remains, after all, both the technical director of the U.S. Men’s soccer program and the manager of its national team, no matter the potential for conflict between the two goals and no matter the wisdom of such a consolidation of power. This means that rock bottom, at least for today, remains October 10, when the US lost a thrilling Confederations Cup playoff game to Mexico in the Rose Bowl and a younger group of Americans, fighting for a berth into the Olympics on home soil, fell 2-0 to Honduras in Salt Lake City.

Following that day’s debacle we at TYAC wrote an op-ed arguing that the U.S. should replace Jurgen Klinsmann as manager. What follows isn’t going to be another call for the Sword of Damocles to fall. Jurgen Klinsmann is under considerable pressure. The noise in the system is at aircraft carrier rumble. Further, our position hasn’t changed. Instead, it’s the hearts and minds of readers and fans who remained in the Klinsmann camp that are losing faith in their convictions. Which begs an important question: why now? What’s wrong now that wasn’t then?

Here, it’s hard not to think of Russell Hammond’s line when he finally gives young William Miller that interview at the end of Cameron Crowe’s masterfully self-reflexive Almost Famous: to begin with, everything.

The U.S. have, since defeating largely the same incarnation of this Guatemala team 4-0 in Nashville last July ahead of the Gold Cup, lost 4 competitive matches. In only one of those games- Mexico in October- were they the lower-ranked team. 

The Americans have played 10 competitive matches in that span, with a record (W-T-L) of 4-2-4. Three of the defeats occurred on home soil. Those losses include a defeat by Jamaica- the first loss on home soil by an American team to a Caribbean nation since 1969 and a penalty shoot out defeat to Panama in a stronghold city, Philadelphia, where the U.S. were outclassed and Brad Guzan had to make more saves than Tim Howard had against Belgium just to force penalty kicks. That the U.S. were fortunate to be in the Confederations Cup playoff before losing on Paul Aguilar’s “Benny Feilhaber is avenged” wonder thump is well-documented.

In two of the Americans victories during that span, the U.S. have been outshot and/or out-chance created (Honduras, Haiti). In many of the matches, the Americans have conceded an early goal, including during one of the span’s only two comfortable wins, over Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. In both draws, the Americans were outplayed, getting outshot by Panama and nearly falling behind Trinidad and Tobago after thirty seconds in Port of Spain, only to see the typically clinical Kenwyne Jones yank a shot inches past Tim Howard’s near post. Howard, it should be noted, later made a brilliant stop that preserved a point for the Americans in a game that was largely even chance-wise, in the sense that it was by and large chance free.

The U.S. were comprehensively beaten by Guatemala Friday night, continuing a troubling trend.

The U.S. were comprehensively beaten by Guatemala Friday night, continuing a troubling trend.

The Americans can’t even argue they’ve been “unfortunate” in defeat.

The Guatemalan loss Friday night was so comprehensive Michael Bradley answered “everything” when asked what the Americans needed to improve.

The Gold Cup loss to Jamaica in the Gold Cup semifinal appears to be bad luck statistically, but the Reggae Boyz bunkered up after a pair of goals and the Americans, for all the chances they created in the early portion of the second half, left Atlanta having spent the last half hour hoping against hope that boot and run longballs toward Alan Gordon would solve the Jamaican defense’s riddle. That the US had a chance to win the Confederations Cup playoff was a testament to American grit and industry, rather than attractive soccer. The Americans spent most of a hot evening in the Rose Bowl defending their goal mouth. 

Klinsmann’s supporters have long been intractable, armed with a litany of reasons anyone but the manager/technical director is to blame. But there are only so many bruises that can be covered by the blush of friendly victories in Amsterdam and Cologne. And as successful moments that portend better days become battered by time, the reality that the Americans are trending towards doom becomes difficult for even the most ardent supporter to ignore. Hence, deafening noise in the system.

The next logical questions are “Why or how did we get here?” and “Does Klinsmann hear the noise?” The second question is less complicated. 

When he took the job, Jurgen Klinsmann wanted a healthy and robust debate about American soccer in the press and among fans. During his first cycle in charge, he lamented the timidity of the American soccer press and noted that in the great footballing cultures of Europe, every move is scrutinized. This is progress, he said.

At base, Jurgen Klinsmann seems to recognize the desperation of tonight’s match. “We need to win this game,” Klinsmann told reporters in Columbus Monday.

He also appears, to some extent, to appreciate the discussion surrounding his tactical choices of late, though he pushed back yesterday against suggestions he is playing players out of position (more below) with this remark: “I’m not playing anyone out of position,” he said. “I know that Geoff Cameron can play right back and center back. I know Yedlin can play right wing or right back. This is a good thing for us to have, because we try to put the pieces together the best way possible in order for them to fit.” 

These comments appear to be tacit acknowledgments by Klinsmann that even a manager with his extraordinarily unusual in the world of international soccer power can come under scrutiny or lose his job. Klinsmann wanted a robust and healthy debate about soccer in this country to demonstrate progress. He has it, though if you spend too much time on social media you’ll accurately wonder how constructive or at the least “healthy” the debate is. Robust to be sure, healthy…well, perhaps less of that. But the reality is that today, March 29th, the largest topic in the robust debate Klinsmann hoped would emerge from a timid press and happy to agree fans is about the manager’s job. And it should be.

Is John Brooks celebrationin the rain likely to be the defining positive image of the Klinsmann regime?

Is John Brooks celebrationin the rain likely to be the defining positive image of the Klinsmann regime?

There have been much better days in Jurgen Klinsmann’s tenure. But it is deeply troubling that the manager isn’t (publicly?) more reflexive and self-critical at this juncture.

The U.S. under Klinsmann have had sunny days.

The 2013 Gold Cup, as dominant a tournament performance by an American side as we’ve ever seen, came under Jurgen Klinsmann, albeit with a fit and motivated Landon Donovan conducting the symphony.

The confident, powerful team that barreled through the 2014 CONCACAF World Cup qualifying Hex was a pragmatic blend of tactical flexibility and depth that only truly struggled in two games, and responded with vigor when its character was tested, whether the response came in a wintry blizzard of a World Cup qualifier with a manager under fire or in a utterly dominant second half display against Mexico with a chance to qualify on the line. So good were the U.S. in the Hex that Mexico, having played themselves out of the 2014 World Cup finals, were rescued by the Americans in the final hour. That was a team that utilized Klinsmann’s undeniable motivational strengths and the wide array of pieces at its disposal to achieve tremendous success.

And on the largest stage, it is unfair to Klinsmann to not credit the American side that gutted out a game against longtime nemesis Ghana in the rains of Natal despite losing its in-form, star forward 20 minutes after the whistle. That was a tremendous three points where the U.S. coaches had to adjust tactics on the fly. Yes, it would have been easier to adjust those tactics if they had someone other than an injured and in-need of surgery Aron Johannsson off the bench, but that is a lengthy rabbit hole. The coaches made their choices and the result they earned with them was special, as was at least 70 minutes of the match in the rainforest of Manaus that followed, which saw the Americans take the battering ram to Portugal and secure a result that made advancement from a dire, dangerous group possible despite a final fixture against eventual world champion Germany.

These are laudable things,and Klinsmann deserves credit for them. Most of all, he demonstrated a thoughtful pragmatism that helped the Americans compete against a multiplicity of styles and despite a rash of player injuries, suspensions and yes, sabbaticals. Klinsmann’s largest detractors would suggest there are kernels of criticism to be leveled against Klinsmann for the injury issues too. They’d rightly point out that when you pick the team, you shouldn’t get to complain about who is missing. But being reflexive and self-critical works in both directions. The best of us can see each view and admit that often, reality is somewhere between. With Klinsmann, it seems like the search for that type of equilibrium has been one of the only constants.

The problem of course, is that what was once thoughtful pragmatism has morphed into aimless tinkering and suddenly, an odd but malignant insularity.

On this point, let’s start here.

This is an absurd claim that demonstrates a malignant insularity. It isn’t easy to be self-critical, but the best managers tend to be reflexive and quick to adapt. Here,the fine line between the merits of Klinsmann’s tactical pragmatism and his long attributed inability to take inventory and ownership of his own choices clashes and to the team’s detriment.

Against Guatemala Friday night, the Americans fielded a starting lineup with, at a bare minimum, six players playing out of position. In midfield, Mix Diskerud isn’t a 6. He’s probably not an international caliber player- something Klinsmann knew when he didn’t play him at the World Cup and rarely played him in any match that mattered during qualifying– but he’s certainly not a holding midfielder. Ale Bedoya entered Guatemala camp “feeling in the zone.”  Unfortunately, the “zone” isn’t always on an inverted wing, and is often more central, in France. Michael Bradley continues to play much higher than he should, depriving his teammates of his defensive acumen and his ability to wield dazzling long balls in traffic. A polemic can (has?) be written about the continual decision to use MB 90 as a creator when he clearly excels in the scrum, where his team can benefit not just from his offensive choices, but his defensive ones.

 

DeAndre Yedlin, fresh off a miraculous comeback from the dreaded Sam Allardyce doghouse, started at wing, not the fullback spot he is manning for a Barclay’s Premier League club immersed in a bruising relegation fight. The backline saw Geoff Cameron, a Premier league CB and forever a more effective CB internationally, slotted at fullback, and just months after Klinsmann himself said it would take something special from someone else to remove him from his role as a national team starting CB. (The U.S. played a total of two matches, and zero full-strength senior side matches in between that comment and Friday night.) With Matt Belser in concussion protocol and John Brooks hurt, it is easier to brush off Klinsmann being forced to play two right-footed CB’s, but why not utilize Cameron in his natural spot, particularly when you have Yedlin at your disposal and Michael Orozco, who you also played, hasn’t been playing for his club? It was an easy fix and a common-sense one, given the choice (a fine one, I’d add) to start the in-form but attacking fullback Edgar Castillo on the left. Balance and symmetry matter. Klinsmann’s positional choices left his defense with little to none. So his denial of that problematic is astonishing. 

Another concept that should be, but seems to be difficult for Klinsmann to understand is that there’s a linear concern and impactwhen you play that many individuals out of position. Players miss assignments simply thinking too long about assignments. Or better stated:

https://twitter.com/shinguardian/status/714513575432364032

These are choices that matter, and what’s bizarre is that the out of position trend seems to be a recent phenomenon. Check the US 11 against Mexico in the 2014 Columbus qualifier: Howard-Beasley-Goodson-Gonzalez-Johnson-Beckerman-Jones-Bedoya-Dempsey-Donovan-Eddie Johnson. That’s a fairly steady and accurate deployment. You could quibble with Dempsey on the wing or Fabian Johnson at fullback, but both have played those spots for various clubs historically and given the absence of Michael Bradley and at least two other regulars, this was a deployment that reflected both tactical and personnel understanding. This sort of common-sense pragmatism was common early in Klinsmann’s tenure. Now the moves seem whimsical instead of calculated, and results have suffered. The U.S. look rudderless, listless and unimaginative, and if you struggled through the second half Friday night, they appear to lack panache and passion to boot.

The defenses are crumbling. And the notion this is about the talent pool taxes the credulity of the credulous.

Klinsmann’s most strident supporters blame everything from “the pyramid being upside down” (that implicates a manager’s in-game choices, how??) to MLS (same question, please don’t say form) to the talent pool, generally, most notably, the absence of elite (I don’t mean world class, I just mean elite) top-level talent like an in-his prime Clint Dempsey or Landon Donovan. While criticizing the current state of the talent pool is a reasonable take, two quick retorts should be offered. 

First, the player pool is deeper than ever before, and the U.S. have talent. Fabian Johnson wasn’t available Friday night, but he’s been around for the last nine months when things have gone far south, and he just capped off one of the best year’s ever for an American abroad. Ale Bedoya has been masterful in France. Why not play him in the same spot? Only three years ago, Michael Bradley was called “the best player in CONCACAF” by a manager who led his team, Costa Rica, to a World Cup quarterfinal. A year later, a later fired Mexican manager called Bradley “better than anything we had on the field” in a friendly. He can play. The Americans may be somewhat in-between generations, but the idea the cupboard is bare is a stretch.

Second, there’s a sensible argument to be made that if the U.S. lack elite level talent, and there is an issue at the top of the player pool, that’s an argument for a manager with outstanding tactical chops, not against one. And for all of Jurgen Klinsmann’s positive attributes, he’s unlikely to be considered a tactical expert anytime in the near future. If you need a manager who can shield your team’s various weaknesses, you probably want someone other than Jurgen Klinsmann. 

It has been a while since the Americans could feel good about themselves.

It has been a while since the Americans could feel good about themselves.

Perhaps joy comes in the morning?

Without question, Friday night’s result put qualification for the 2018 World Cup in Russia in jeopardy. The U.S. have qualified for the previous seven World Cups, often comfortably, though there were close shaves with disaster in the 2002 cycle and in 2014.  They must finish second in this qualifying group to advance to the final round Hex.

Halfway through this round, the Americans now sit third, with four points to Guatemala’s six and group leader Trinidad and Tobago’s seven. The Americans, like the Soca Warriors, will play two of their final three qualifiers in this round at home, whereas Guatemala will play two on the road. Still, with each country likely to collect all three points against minnows Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, the Americans have to believe that anything but a victory tonight in Ohio could mark the end of a seven World Cup run. 

And yet if the U.S. win Tuesday night, they at a minimum will be back into second place, a qualifying position, with only a trip to Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and a home match against an improved but certainly beatable Trinidad and Tobago on deck. The pressure is on the U.S., but Guatemala desperately need a result tonight as well.  

The U.S. are struggling, to be sure, but there is something magical about Columbus and while the idea that defeating Guatemala at home would be magical takes some getting used to, the reality is a win changes the complexion and optics of things literally overnight. And Wednesday could end being a banner day for U.S. Soccer as a whole if the U-23 team can defeat Colombia (or draw 0-0) in Frisco, Texas later tonight. 

I think of Whitman:

O the joy of the strong-brawn’d fighter, towering in the arena in
perfect condition, conscious of power, thirsting to meet his
opponent.

O the joy of that vast elemental sympathy which only the human 

soul is capable of generating and emitting in steady and
limitless floods. 

Joy comes in the morning?

Neil W. Blackmon co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Reach him at neil@yanksarecoming.com or nwblackmon@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter at @nwblackmon.