The US again hit the road in World Cup qualifying tonight, in a familiar venue, the Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores of Guatemala City.
Jon Levy
Better late to this party than never. The US play their third game of the 2016 World Cup qualifying schedule this evening on the road in Guatemala (10 PM ET, BEIN SPORTS). The Americans closed 2015 with a testy 0-0 draw in Port of Spain, a result many writers, including yours truly, felt was an accomplishment given the form of the two nations entering the match. That result assured the Americans a first place spot in Group 3 of the Fourth Round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying, with the top two teams after the six game group stage advancing to the final six team “Hex.”
Here are the group standings heading into tonight’s match against Los Chapines at the Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores.
TEAM Points Goal Difference
United States 4 + 5
Trinidad and Tobago 4 + 1
Guatemala 3 + 3
St. Vincent and Grenadines 0 – 9
The table is noteworthy because it highlights two themes of tonight’s match. First, with the Soca Warriors likely to win in St. Vincent, the Americans likely must win to maintain the lead in the group. A loss would put them out of a World Cup qualification spot, at least for the time being. Second, Guatemala already dropped a crucial home fixture to Trinidad and Tobago. If they want to advance to the Hex, they need to find a way to stun the Americans tonight. World Cup qualifying matches on the road are always tricky. Playing a desperate team that takes the pitch with a sense of urgency is even trickier.
So let’s do the TYAC preview. We’ve been doing these for almost eight years. You know the drill. Usuals. Then particulars.
Series: 26th meeting. US lead 15-4-6. Guatemala’s last win over the United States came in 1988 when Los Chapines earned a 1-0 win in a friendly. The US have a 21 match unbeaten streak since, including a 4-0 win on a soggy Nashville 3rd of July this summer prior to the American collapse at the Gold Cup. That should all sound like rosy news, and it mostly is, but it’s useful to remember two things. First, this is still a road game and the Americans didn’t capture all three points last time here (more below). Second, Guatemala has frightened the Americans before, including Carlos Ruiz and company taking a 1-0 lead in a game last cycle that could have sent the US out of the World Cup prior to the Hex. Strange things happen in soccer.
Weather: 60’s with a breeze and some humidity. It was ten degrees or so above normal in Guatemala City today, but the air thins out and cools at night, and it should be comfortable by kick. Normally this would mean a low Fabian Johnson misery index, but given he’s been training by himself and isn’t likely to play much soccer tonight, we’ll leave it at about 7.
Stefano Cincotta gives Guatemala a rare bit of polish and talent from width. Good thing the US brought so many fullbacks. Oh. Wait.
What will we see out of Guatemala?
The US shared a group with Guatemala in this stage of World Cup Qualifying four years ago, and while much of the chatter this week has been about the tense beginning to the all important home match at the end of that cycle, I think the away match in Guatemala is more instructive.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. A hopelessly outgunned Guatemala team keeps eleven men behind the ball, and tests the limits of soccer legality on absolutely every challenge. It’s a familiar script for a CONCACAF away match, but the Yanks appeared set to escape with a one-nil victory. That is, until the not so familiar happened. The US was called for a phantom foul outside the box (that’s not the unfamiliar part), and Marco Pappa separated himself from decades of established Guatemalan soccer mediocrity by curling a perfect free kick into the top right corner of Tim Howard’s net. As MLS and CONCACAF fans know, that free kick was no fluke. Pappa will be the hub of his team on Friday night, and he’ll once again be Guatemala’s best chance of turning another match relatively full of bunker defense into a win or draw for Guatemala.
Guatemalan Player to Watch: Stefano Cincotta (Chemnitzer FC)
I’m breaking an unwritten Yanks Are Coming match preview rule here, but this 25 year old left back/left winger is compelling me to do so. We usually don’t feature the same “Player to Watch” for two consecutive matchups with a given national team. So if we spotlighted Chicharito prior to one Mexico match, he’s almost certainly not going to be our “Mexican Player to Watch” the next time the Yanks take on El Tri. But in the months between the USMNT’s Gold Cup tune-up versus Guatemala and these crucial World Cup Qualifiers, Cincotta’s become indispensable to his new national team. The former Germany youth team player has the kind of quality in his feet that’s only matched (and probably surpassed) by Marco Pappa on La Furia Azul. So Cincotta will be on the field against the US, and whether he’s playing left back or in the midfield, expect him to get the ball as much as any Guatemala player, and to get up the field with it. He could be a problem for the American defense, especially if the US commits too much attention to Pappa, and especially given the dearth of American fullbacks or natural wingers called in by Klinsmann to contain him.
What to expect from the US:
This is a match in which the USMNT must show it has made progress since the road qualifier against Trinidad and Tobago. That was the last match of consequence for this team, and neither the players nor the manager passed that test. The Soca Warriors played a typical defend and counter game against the US, and the Yanks had absolutely nothing for them. In fact, if not for a brilliant save or two by Tim Howard, the whole US Soccer community would be in preemptive panic mode after a loss in Port of Spain. Instead we were left with a zero-zero draw, and that seems easier to forgive and forget. But let’s not forget it. To say the US attack was flat is as kind as I can put it, and Jurgen Klinsmann apparently left his usually handy “inspired substitutions” playbook back home.
After the Trinidad and Tobago game, Michael Bradley noted that so many of these away qualifiers in CONCACAF are “all the same.” Can you take your chances? Can you break down a team designed to turn the game into a sloppy morass on what is likely a poor pitch? Can you shrug off the noise and the dim lighting and the bunkered mentalities and find a goal? This match will largely no different, save the fact that Guatemala aren’t as good as Trinidad and Tobago but are certainly more desperate. The challenge against Guatemala is what you’d expect it to be then: unlocking the home team’s determined defense. Remember, this is one of reasons, allegedly, Klinsmann was hired. Bob Bradley and Bruce Arena were seen to employ basic, uninspired tactics against inferior CONCACAF opposition, despite clearly having better players. Klinsmann’s progressive approach would turn a possession edge that this team has traditionally held over opponents like Guatemala, into an irrepressible attack. Granted, this hypothesis has been false as often as it’s been true during Herr Manager’s tenure, but if he doesn’t get it going in the right direction by summertime, he might just maybe could be out the door. (Something we called for months ago, and well, that’s another conversation) But let’s not get that far ahead of the action. I expect a response from manager and team on Friday night. That should mean lots of scoring chances and a couple goals. Right Jurgen?
As Sunderland struggle, Yedlin keeps gaining experience.
American Player to Watch: DeAndre Yedlin (Sunderland)
DeAndre Yedlin’s been the TYAC American player to watch a number of times since his apparent star turn as a super sub in the World Cup a year and half ago. Truthfully, by this point we thought he’d be the no-doubt starter at right back for the USMNT. At least that was the conventional wisdom coming off a performance that landed DeAndre Digital (it’s gonna catch on dammit!) on Tottenham’s radar.
But that transfer led to a lack of playing time, partially due to the speedy winger’s lack of technical defensive nous. And instead of letting the young defender get better against CONCACAF opposition, Jurgen Klinsmann chose to spend a year deploying him further up the wing. All of the burst, and none of the responsibility! What could go wrong!?
Well what could go wrong did go wrong.
The Yanks suffered through an identity crisis at right back while DeAndre stagnated on both wings, proving less effective going forward than he was when overlapping from defense. It was all going wrong until the most unlikely hero stepped forward to save the day for DeAndre, and hopefully the US Men’s National Team.
Red-faced Big Sam Allardyce is an unapologetic, egotistically stubborn, English football manager. And he was just the boot up the pants that young Master Yedlin needed to spur his development into a Premier League quality right back. Big Sam arrived, as most Sunderland managers do, when Yedlin’s loan side was well and truly on the ropes, staring likely relegation in face. But Allardyce’s pragmatic, almost American, “points above all else” approach took hold immediately. Best of all, he had use for his new speedy American right back, and Yedlin was suddenly cruising on Wearside. That is, until a surprisingly stylish Watford team completely exposed Yedlin for the incomplete player he was. Sam had enough after a horror show in the first half, so he pulled DeAndre and put him in a storied old doghouse that few scorned players ever emerge from. But this is the best part of the story. The American kid with the too-cool-for-school hairstyles puts his head down, gets to work, learns a thing or two about defensive positioning, and plays his way back into the team. The fact that he’s now starting at right back again for a Sam Allardyce team that’s fighting relegation tooth and nail down the stretch run is nothing short of amazing. No one’s making the argument that DeAndre Yedlin is one of the best fullbacks in the EPL, but he’s gained the trust of a no-nonsense manager that likes no-nonsense defenders. And if I would have predicted this six months ago you’d be right to tell me that’s nonsense. It’s time for Jurgen to play DeAndre in defense again; a glance across the pond shows the proof is in the figgy pudding. … I’m so sorry, I couldn’t resist.
Prediction: Guatemala 0 – 2 USA
Road CONCACAF World Cup Qualifiers aren’t generally get-right matches for the Yanks, but I’ve got a really good feeling about this one. This could be the match that gets the team rolling again. And I think Lee Nguyen finally shows he can put it on a platter for his US teammates in a game that means something.
Enjoy the match, and Go USA!
Jon Levy co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Reach him at jon@yanksarecoming.com or jon.f.levy@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @TYAC_Jon.