Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie celebrate a US goal earlier this World Cup cycle.
By Sanjay Sujanthakumar
Concacaf recently unveiled the pandemic-induced, modified World Cup qualifying format that replaces the final round Hexagonal with an eight team, home-and-home round robin beginning in June 2021. With an additional two teams and four games, The Ocho – I will exclusively refer to it as such – is a welcome extension of the Hex for the USMNT. Brian Straus excellently analyzed the pros and the cons of the updated international calendar and I’ll briefly build on the upside.
There are two obvious takeaways in terms of how this benefits the USMNT.
First and foremost, this could buy the US more time to improve, regardless of how many camps the US can have between now and June. In theory, it’s three camps with the entirety of the pool – October, November, and the Nations League in March – plus the usual MLS-heavy January camp. But even if the pandemic limits travel and any plans to convene (I wouldn’t bet against that), the 10 months to come could be an invaluable, potentially pivotal period in the progression of the player pool at the club level. Gregg Berhalter acknowledged this in an interview Tuesday on ESPN.
“Our goal as a team is to keep progressing, and we may not have the opportunity to do it together in this fall, but it doesn’t mean the players aren’t progressing,” Berhalter told ESPN.
Like any national team manager during this period of profound uncertainty, Berhalter is waiting that much longer to work with his players, but when he can once again, he knows it’s highly likely he’ll have more and better options.
The delayed start to qualifying was anticipated, and this is more than expected cushion for youngsters in Europe (Richie Ledezma, Sebastian Soto and Ulysses Llanez) to establish themselves and develop with their first teams, as well as kids still stateside to play their way across the pond and/or into a full strength senior national team roster with their names in pen (Paxton Pomykal, Brenden Aaronson and Mark McKenzie). It’s more room in the calendar for Christian Pulisic to rise into the world’s attacking elite, for Tyler Adams to cement his role in the middle of the park, for Weston McKennie to find his way at a new club and keep blossoming as a central midfielder, for Gio Reyna to take the next step and become a BVB and unquestioned MNT starter, and for Tim Weah to bounce back from injury. And that’s just a few names.
I’m not going to predict whose stock will rise in the next year and what a squad could look like next June because that’s not easy and there’s several candidates, but it’s also not the point here. If the whole pool is fit I don’t think the ideal 11 between now and then will change much regardless, but that’s a massive if and that is the point. In the next year, the pool can enter a phase where depth reaches a level that insures against injuries at all endangering qualification. While 14 games leaves greater margin for error, there will absolutely be injuries, suspensions, and a bit of rotation necessary anyway with qualifiers set for next September, October, November, and January and March 2022. After the summer of 2021 it’s essentially a straight shot, and there won’t be time to integrate new faces unless their club form is so impressive that Berhalter can’t refuse OR if Berhalter is extraordinarily desperate for reinforcements.
A few thoughts on the state of the pool with qualifying around the bend:
The US are at their best when the John Brooks we saw at the Copa America is on anchoring the defense.
The defense
In terms of injuries, the first player that comes to mind is the first center back on the team sheet. If John Brooks didn’t miss the final four qualifiers of the Hex in 2017, the US probably doesn’t miss out on Russia. Brooks was also out for the qualifier in Panama and was rested for the match vs Mexico at Azteca (along with several others due to a short turnaround between games), meaning he only played 40% of the Hex and went 90 in just three games. One of those was his personal worst performance in a US Shirt, against Costa Rica. That’s not the type of return the US want and they’ll hope for better in the Ocho, despite the fact that Brooks now faces pandemic compressed schedules for both club and country.
Following the 2016 Copa America, Brooks and Geoff Cameron were the clear first choice center back tandem when fit, with Cameron providing the assured, reliable presence Brooks needed to shine. But Brooks and Cameron started only one Hex qualifier together, and the lack of consistency and stability at center back became an especially noticeable problem in both losses to Costa Rica and a narrow escape from Honduras with a draw.
The current default partner for Brooks is Aaron Long. They’ve started twice together in comfortable home wins against Ecuador and Canada, neither of whom were remotely threatening on the day. Long’s distribution is not spectacular but he’s steady defensively, he should be in Europe and like my colleague Jon Levy, I have no complaints about him in the starting 11.
However, there’s a bevy of younger center backs who could by June a) unseat him at RCB b) jump Premier-league bound Fulham stalwart Tim Ream on the depth chart and start with Long when Brooks is out or c) start as part of a back three.
Matt Miazga, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Erik Palmer-Brown are still on the books of Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester City respectively. Whether or not they find new permanent homes soon, minutes on loan at the club level are keeping them in the picture.
Miazga has the most international experience but after starting the Gold Cup semifinal and final last summer, he didn’t feature in the loss to Canada in Toronto then was dropped from the squad for the must-win rematch in Orlando and 2019 finale vs Cuba.
Neither CCV nor Palmer-Brown have been capped by Berhalter – CCV was in the Gold Cup pre-camp but didn’t make the cut for the tournament – but both are coming off successful loan spells. CCV was a major influence in lifting Luton Town to survival in the Championship, and EPB was a regular for Austria Wien in the Austrian Bundesliga. Miazga is 25, EPB is 23, and CCV turns 23 in December. The trio that went to the 2015 U20 World Cup – CCV started in 2015 as well as 2017, first with Miazga then EPB – are not kids anymore. But they’re definitely not fading from the senior team conversation.
The same is true for Atlanta’s Miles Robinson, 23, who debuted and made a couple of MNT cameos last fall. Chris Richards, 20, and Mark McKenzie, 21 are the younger end of the batch. Richards has graduated from Bayern’s reserve team, he’s reportedly rated by Hansi Flick and he may remain in Munich with the first team. He has the highest ceiling in this group but if he stays with Bayern, it’s crucial he gets a healthy dose of minutes. Injuries prevented a breakout 2019 for McKenzie but his performances in the MLS Is Back Tournament are attracting European interest because like Richards, he’s quite a well-rounded center back.
All of these center backs are right footed but all have professional experience in a back three and/or as a left sided center back. Take a moment to savor McKenzie showing off breathtaking passing range with his “weaker” foot from LCB.
Mark McKenzie's weak foot pic.twitter.com/GdJ8aiu9Ol
— scuffed (@scuffedpod) July 31, 2020
I doubt Berhalter has the luxury to experiment and install a back three ahead of The Ocho but considering the options at wingback right now – Sergiño Dest, Reggie Cannon, DeAndre Yedlin, Antonee Robinson – it could be worth a look down the road. For now, the next year is a golden opportunity for a few center backs to emerge as upgrades over Ream and Long. Richards, McKenzie and Palmer-Brown definitely are in terms of talent, and there’s 10 months for them to prove it weekly.
Healthy U17, U20 and US youth pipeline continues
At the end of a U17 or U20 World Cup we take stock of who has USMNT contributor potential, understanding that no matter the results of the tournament, if a few kids ultimately pan out, the tournament has served its real purpose.
Recently, we’ve seen the best eligible U20 players either not be released for the World Cup or, prior to the competition, graduate to the senior team – namely Pulisic and McKennie in 2017 and Tyler Adams in 2019. That trend seems like it will continue with Gio Reyna and maybe Ulysses Llanez for 2021. There are, of course, more examples of prospects who didn’t even make the U20 squad forcing their way into the senior team discussion: Jordan Morris didn’t go to the 2013 U20 World Cup, Jackson Yueill, Reggie Cannon, and Miles Robinson didn’t go to the 2017 U20 World Cup – and that should also continue. The point is you want both and the fact it is currently happening while the World Cup squads themselves are bearing a bit of fruit bodes rather well for the future of the senior team.
James Sands didn’t go to the U20 World Cup last summer and in almost every game I watched him play before and after Poland – with every tackle, interception, the New Yorker was blending a smart, subtle reading of the game and an eye for the simple yet sweet pass – I’ve wondered why. Chris Durkin is a better distributor and Aboubacar Keita is a bigger body in the back, but I still think Tab should’ve brought Sands at the eleventh hour of the cycle. Brenden Aaronson never played in a youth World Cup but he has surged into the senior team picture, and the depth chart in the middle and higher up the pitch is looking increasingly crowded.
What role will Tyler Adams play now that he’s healthy and excelling in Europe?
The midfield tactical setup debate also continues
This is a very educated guess about how Berhalter was planning to set this team up (Bob Morocco brings in the advanced stats and elaborates really well) and the only reason I could see it changing before qualifying is if Berhalter scraps the so far seemingly sacrosanct regista role to a) accommodate Richie Ledezma if he breaks out with PSV or b) deploys a double pivot and slides Reyna in to a more traditional 10 role to accommodate Ulysses Llanez, Jordan Morris, or a healthy Tim Weah. If McKennie and Adams are both fit, Berhalter may sacrifice Yueill for another attacking player, but that remains to be seen. In January TYAC asked Berhalter directly about a double pivot and he said it’s possible depending on the opponent, so it doesn’t sound like his preference yet, but again, development changes things.
If Adams or McKennie isn’t available, the likes of Paxton Pomykal, Aaronson, Sebastian Lletget and Duane Holmes are all probably better suited to play ahead of single deep 6 as we saw in the only game the USMNT has played in 2020 to date. Regardless, there’s plenty of options in orbit, and less reason to be afraid if Tyler Adams isn’t available.
What role for Jordan Morris after his massive 2019?
It’s worth noting (as noted in the latest Scuffed podcast) that, assuming Pulisic is operating on the left, there isn’t a role in the system we saw vs Costa Rica that fits Jordan Morris like a glove. Morris almost (rightly) beat out Christian Pulisic for US Male Player of the Year in 2019 and the media has been waxing lyrical about the Sounders winger. I’m still not yet sold on his international future as a winger (never giving up on the idea he’s truly a striker) but Morris has been very effective against Concacaf opponents and it’s encouraging that even he is set to face intense competition for his starting spot.
Paul Arriola’s grit being back on the field is great news
We’re excited about Pulisic, Reyna, Llanez, Weah and Morris but it’s a relief that Paul Arriola is supposed to be back on the field before World Cup qualifying kicks off. His leadership, experience and two-way grit could be an asset in navigating The Ocho. You always need grinders to qualify, and Arriola is the best of the new wave of Bedoya types and he’s been a consistent producer in a US shirt. He’s not flashy, but he’s underappreciated.
Zack Steffen: Does he need playing time to be the number one?
The longer wait until qualifying means, in theory, more chances for Zack Steffen to get on the field. And even if those appearances are few and far between, it’s more time to learn from Pep Guardiola. I think the impact of that on the USMNT realizing Berhalterball is being underestimated and why Berhalter himself suggested it would be “worth it” and “something special.” I get the concerns about his match sharpness, but a year spent perfecting his distribution and being healthy come June doesn’t sound like a bad idea. Plus, there’s a reasonable argument he’s far enough ahead of the rest of the goalkeeper pool that he doesn’t need to play to be the US number one.
The pandemic has shifted the Olympics to a secondary priority
The pandemic is a cloud of doubt hanging over the Olympics and Olympic qualifying (and just life period), which is supposed to be in March, so rediscovering a balance between the U23s and senior team remains hypothetical unless the situation changes. World Cup qualifying is the focus. After two years of prioritizing a return to the men’s Olympic competition after a decade of qualification failure, this is a big shift.
“Our strongest group is gonna be there in June for the World Cup qualifiers,” Berhalter told Taylor Twellman. If the 2021 Gold Cup goes ahead it’ll be the customary JV team edition. Berhalter acknowledged “we’re certainly gonna have to rotate the squad” in what could be the last but lengthy audition for the depth of the varsity squad to solidify their spots or stake a claim to start, and for fresh faces (Sands?) to springboard into Berhalter’s plans ahead of The Ocho, with perhaps a few kids sprinkled in (especially if there’s no U20 World Cup… wishfully thinking Bryce Duke in his mid-breakout MLS season).
The US are building a diverse team that looks like the United States and plays fun soccer. Could they become a unifying force?
USMNT diversity can make this team a unifying force at a time of unprecedented polarization
America has been battered by a pandemic and the additional virus that is politics during a presidential election year and a climate of unprecedented polarization. Around the time of midterm elections two years ago I wrote about the significance of the increasing diversity of the USMNT, which is as relevant as ever today during a national reckoning on race relations. But when I think about what the USMNT could look like on the field when we’re on the other side of this pandemic – whenever that is – there will be more to celebrate than the team’s diversity. That’s definitely a beautiful bonus, but what this group can achieve on the field could hit different.
The United States is fighting a war with itself while losing the war against the virus. Certain states have fared better than others but collectively we’ve been a colossal failure compared to other countries, and unfortunately we may have to accept the corresponding contrast in how COVID-19 compromises pro sports. It’s already tripping the MLB and it would be a miracle if there’s a complete football season of any form this year. Mainstream coverage of soccer happening domestically (women’s and then men’s) and abroad during the pandemic has still been disappointing, only reluctantly if at all inclined to monitor the potential growth of the MNTers scattered overseas beyond the headline grabbing Christian Pulisic. That’s understandable to an extent – under normal circumstances, following the USMNT through a cycle demands painstaking patience, and the casual American fan is content to save their attention for the culmination that is the World Cup. But it may take less than two years for America to slowly realize that the USMNT have, slowly but surely, transformed themselves since that night in Trinidad, and that we can measure ourselves against the world in a way that no one ever expected. A positive way. Eventually the pandemic shall pass, and when it does, the USMNT could be passing the ball in a way that disorganizes any opponent. But for the next 18 months, with little to no exception, the focus will be where it should be: CONCACAF.
Sanjay Sujanthakmar is a longtime TYAC contributor. He coaches soccer at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. Follow him on Twitter @Tha_Real_Kumar.