The biggest story in American soccer this year is whether the US Women’s National Team can retain the World Cup this summer in France.
Germany are the only nation to retain, accomplishing the feat by winning the 2003 and 2007 FIFA Women’s World Cup; the United States have never advanced past the semifinals in the tournament following a victory the preceding cycle. That history, coupled with the reality that it’s always more difficult to win a World Cup away from your home continent, all countenance against betting heavily on the US Women’s National Team this summer.
And yet on the surface there are plenty of reasons to be confident about American chances.
No one suffers winning quite as miserably as American women’s soccer fans, but for all the hand-wringing, fan and journalist angst over the US playing style and system under veteran coach Jill Ellis, the Americans are unbeaten in the last 18 months, a stretch that includes multiple international competitions. The team closed 2018 with two sluggish performances against Scotland and Portugal; but they spent the critical part of last autumn steamrolling through CONCACAF qualifying, outscoring five opponents 26-0. In other words, the US enters 2019 playing some of the best soccer it has put together this cycle.
The US opens 2019- and puts its eighteen month unbeaten streak to an immense test- Saturday against France, the World Cup hosts who are among the favorites to unseat the US Women from their throne. It’s a heady test and a should serve as a good barometer of where this team is heading into the homestretch of a World Cup cycle.
Here are three observations and questions facing the USWNT as they begin 2019.
Who wins the final two midfield spots? Or is it three?
Okay, that’s two questions, but we’re going to count them as one for purposes of the piece.
As John Halloran notes in an excellent interview piece posted today at ASN, the decision to move Julie Ertz to the six mid-cycle has been the driving force behind this team’s improved play. She’s the Americans most important player, even if she’s not the team’s most “valuable” one in the traditional “she scores the goals” sense. The United States have been undefeated in the 28 games since Ertz moved to the spot and her presence has helped shore up a backline that was leaky in the Americans disappointing Olympics performance.
Barring injury, Rose Lavelle and Lindsay Horan figure to be locks to make the 23 women roster. But who joins them? The smart money is on three of the four remaining midfield names on the US roster ahead of the France friendly: McCall Zerboni, Sam Mewis, Danielle Colaprico and Morgan Brian. That said, Andi Sullivan has been a frequent face this cycle and Allie Long started three of the four US matches at the Olympics and was with the team again in November, so it’s hard to read too much into her exclusion from qualifying matches.
There are arguments for any of these names, but the best guess here is Sam Mewis, Morgan Brian and Zerboni round out the roster. Mewis recovered beautifully from a late 2017 knee injury to play terrific soccer in the NWSL Playoffs and make the US qualifying roster. When healthy, she is a fixture.
Morgan Brian is perhaps the largest non-Carli Lloyd and Becky Sauerbrunn reason the US won the World Cup in 2015. The youngest player on the World Cup roster at the time, Jill Ellis placed her in the lineup mid-tournament and the US never looked back, with her physicality and creativity igniting a US midfield that had been stagnant in the group stages. The world appeared to be at Brian’s fingertips, and for a while, it was, until her body broke down.
Injuries slowed her for most this World Cup cycle and tanked a high-profile, expensive transfer to Lyon with two years remaining on Brian’s contract. Eventually, Brian landed back in NWSL, playing with the Chicago Red Stars and this autumn, regaining the form that made her such a coveted prospect to begin with out of the University of Virginia.
A box-to-box midfielder with World Cup knockout stage experience finding her form again is a luxury most countries do not have. I’d imagine it’s a big reason she’s selected.
The last spot is tougher, but for now, we’ll give the edge to McCall Zerboni. The veteran midfielder is playing the best soccer of her life in her thirties, having made two consecutive NWSL Best 11’s and been a fixture on her second NWSL Champion in three years last season with the North Carolina Courage. An injury forced her out of the CONCACAF Championships, but it seems instructive that she’s back this January for the trip to France and Long is not.
Morgan Brian proves Ellis is unafraid to go young, but Zerboni brings a steadiness and champion’s quality to the bench that makes sense when constructing a roster. It won’t make Andi Sullivan advocates happy, but it makes good soccer sense. Besides, Sullivan did little to impress this November, which matters when you aren’t playing as well as your competition for the national team at the club level, either.
Danielle Colaprico likewise probably just misses out; that’s a rough deal but it happens when you play on a team that already has Julie Ertz at the position and can capably put Brian there in a pinch.
Even with Ertz, are the US Centerbacks beyond Dahlkemper ready to defend this World Cup?
Can I answer this question after the France match?
Abby Dahlkemper has been a revelation this cycle, continuing the strong play that has helped her earn 30 caps. She’s the best CB on the team and provides cover for her teammates, steady distributions and unorthodox but effective positional defending.
Beyond Abby, nothing is certain.
Tierna Davidson is all-in, having foregone her senior year at Stanford to do everything in her power to win a spot and a starting job on this roster come the summer. Whether she’s fully healthy is to be determined; the Chicago Red Stars weren’t concerned when they selected her first in the NWSL Draft earlier this month.
Becky Sauerbrunn isn’t the best defender in the world anymore, as time remains undefeated. She’ll be on this team and available, a smart play against a matchup that commands a technical, positional defender.
Emily Sonnett has lost herself and found herself again this World Cup cycle, a reminder that cycles are long and progress isn’t always a neatly-drawn arc. She was trusted at the She Believes Cup last year and less mistake-prone, at least at this age, than Davidson. Maybe giving her a runout at CB will make sense.
Whatever the choice, it’s a big question area for the US heading into the summer.
From Baby Horse to Thoroughbred: Is this Alex Morgan’s time?
It’s amazing to me the player called “Baby Horse” by her teammates at the 2011 World Cup will be thirty this summer and captaining her national team at a World Cup.
The three-time reigning CONCACAF Female Player of the Year and 2018 US Female Soccer Player of the Year was a force in 2018, finishing with 18 goals for the national team in 19 games, including 7 (and Golden Boot honors) in World Cup qualifying. She’s the most popular American player in the world, and she’s worked relentlessly to improve her overall game this cycle, becoming a more polished technical player and smarter at reading the game after several years of relying primarily on her speed and athleticism.
Morgan only scored one goal at the 2015 World Cup, a disappointing tournament personally for a player pegged as a global superstar before it. But she was one of the few Americans to play well at the Olympics, scoring twice, and her three goals last summer at the Tournament of Nations helped the Americans claim first.
US backup options at centerforward are limited, with the poacher Carli Lloyd and Jessica McDonald the primary options, at this point. If the US are to repeat as World Champions, they’ll need Morgan to lead them. The thinking here is she’s ready for that moment.
Neil W. Blackmon co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.