The day fortunes smiled on Mexico and things in this rivalry began to turn again…
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon
Rivalries are often cyclical, but…
My how a Graham Zusi header in Panama can change everything.
Since Graham Zusi’s late header found the back of the old onion bag and Panama and delivered El Tri from the “we aren’t going to Brazil” fire and wilderness and into a World Cup playoff, the footballing fortunes of both countries have changed dramatically.
Mexico have shined, winning 10 of 13 matches since Santo Zusi’s header, looking dashing and dangerous in doing so, including an impressive, Carlos Vela driven 3-2 win over the Netherlands in Amsterdam last November.
Meanwhile, save one night wrestled from the fire in the Natal rain, the US have gone largely south since placing first in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying for the third consecutive World Cup cycle. The Americans have won just twice since Natal, and spent most of the World Cupdefending admirably and fighting against a lack of possession and imagination in the final third.
Mexico have shined, winning 10 of 13 matches since Zusi found the back of the old onion bag in Panama and looking dashing and dangerous in doing so, including an impressive, Carlos Vela driven 3-2 win over the Netherlands in Amsterdam last November.
In a world where the United States and Mexico were playing tomorrow night on a traditional FIFA date, with a full complement of players, Miguel Herrera’s El Tri would storm the Alamo decided favorites.
Instead, coming off the heels of the March friendlies, FIFA doesn’t require European clubs to release their players and Miguel Herrera has called in a very experimental side to face Jurgen Klinsmann’s slumping Yanks.
To counter, Jurgen Klinsmann has called in a largely US and Mexico based contingent that falls somewhere between another Klinsmann experiment and traditional MLS callups.
On paper, the United States has the better roster, even allowing for a forward grouping that includes a host of experiments behind World Cup veteran Chris Wondolowski. Michael Bradley is here and is, as he tends to be when these two nations get together, the best player in either camp. Kyle Beckerman returns to stabilize things in front of the back four. Gone are the more experimental backline combinations utilized since the World Cup, giving way to the more commonsense solutions of Omar Gonzalez and Matt Besler. Nick Rimando brings a wealth of experience in goal.
For Mexico’s part, the most famous player involved in proceedings was to be Oribe Peralta, the talented forward who was the only reliable goalscorer in El Tri’s miserable yet fairy-dust fated 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign, but he left the team for personal reasons, leaving Mexico with little in the way of starpower but, according to Herrera, plenty in the way of motivated youth who are well-aware they are playing an archrival they haven’t beaten in five meetings.
The last seven Clasicos between the US and their friendly neighbor to the south have been decided by one goal or less.
There’s little reason to expect tomorrow will be much different.
Without further Freddy Adu, let’s kick the usuals around a bit before diving into the particulars, shall we?
There’s some history in this game, no?
Series: 64th edition. Mexico lead, 32-17-14. The United States, however, are unbeaten in the last five and are 12-5-5 vs. El Tri since the turn of the century. The Americans have also won 10 of the last sixteen matches played on American soil– using American soil here since a match at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas is a home game in nomenclature only for the United States. The Americans would take a 40-60 fan split tomorrow night to the bank, and this is the type of match (non-traditional FIFA date, pro-Mexico location) that the US plays to generate revenue- down south in the SEC, we call these “bill paying games.”
Weather: The game is in a dome. If it weren’t, San Antonio is pleasant this time of year. Highs tomorrow will be around 80 and lows will be seasonal, lingering around the mid-sixties. It will probably rain outside, so the dome allows folks to stay dry. It also allows FIFA and the Canadian football federation to see how easily one can put down grass over synthetic turf to play soccer. But I digress.
What to watch for from the Yanks:
First, let’s dispel some floating inaccuracies about this match. Biggest one first.
There’s this notion that the US will look very different at the Gold Cup in a couple months than they will tomorrow night at the Alamodome, assuming that there is soccer. That notion is only half true. Realistically, the US could be playing with as many as six Gold Cup starters against Mexico on Wednesday night, and that number remains six even with the late withdrawal of Michael Orozco from the team.
Still, the Americans are without two of the top three options at forward with Clint Dempsey (hamstring) and Jozy Altidore (red card) unavailable, and while the Americans European contingent continues to dwindle with the increasing allure of money and comfort and playing time in MLS, the Yanks are playing with only two of the traditional seven or eight consistent European selections at their disposal.
Klinsmann has been excellent against El Tri.
Second, there’s this notion that the US “fixed” things or earned an impressive result by drawing the Swiss in Zurich. Again, this falls somewhere south of accurate. The Swiss were ranked 12th in the FIFA rankings at match time, to be sure, but they are a team that had struggled out of the gate in European qualifying and had lost to Slovenia and been embarrassed by England in Basel prior to playing the Americans. The Swiss haven’t been the same since being pummeled by France in Salvador last summer, and their FIFA ranking has fallen ever since as well.
A more accurate view is that the Americans did exactly what they’ve done throughout their post World Cup swoon: played well in stretches but failed to win, conceding another late goal. Jozy Altidore’s foolish red card may or may not have been to blame for the Americans losing another lead, but at this point- it is less about the “how?” and more about the “habit.” The Americans, long a tireless and fit unit who defended leads relentlessly and in numbers, can’t close games, and in fact, find ways to not win instead of their historic tendency to find ways to not lose.
Inaccuracies aside, Jurgen Klinsmann has been excellent in his tenure against Mexico and has five to six likely Gold Cup regulars at his disposal to defeat a B/C Mexico side tomorrow evening. The US should win.
Here’s what TYAC expects, spot to spot.
Nick Rimando probably starts again. Klinsmann tends to play the most experienced goalkeeper at his disposal and obviously here, that’s Rimando. Bill Hamid enters the match in good form, save his spill of a Sacha Kljestan free kick last week against New York Red Bulls, but I’d argue Hamid is the least likely to play, with Mexican American international William Yarbrough also available. Klinsmann has shown he can be sentimental (calling Kljestan for Bosnia-Herzegovina, among other examples)– we’d expect to see Yarbrough here for a half.
The backline center half pairing should be Besler and Gonzalez. Klinsmann seems to like assigned CB roles more than previous US managers. You don’t see Besler flipped to the right or Gonzalez on the left, etc. That predictability makes these spots easier to project, as does the departure of Michael Orozco at the request of Puebla. The thinking here is that Besler and Orozco are the Gold Cup pairing today, with Gonzalez and perhaps even Jermaine Jones potentially still in the mix, but with minimal matches remaining to play the top pair, we should see 90 minutes of the Besler and Gonzalez in San Antonio.
Brek Shea is back and continues to brim with confidence since moving to Orlando. He is even responsible for this emergency clearance, two weeks ago against DC United- nevermind that it was atrocious angle and fundamentals that set the whole sequence into motion in the first place.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CYLv8p4J0fA
Klinsmann clearly values Shea’s athleticism, size and speed on a flank and we’d expect to see more of him at left back Wednesday night, especially after Greg Garza’s rough go in the European friendlies. On the right, DeAndre Yedlin is in camp fresh off his debut with Spurs this past weekend, and while Klinsmann isn’t afraid to call in players from England and immediately not play them (see, Ream, Tim, November and March; Yedlin, DeAndre, March), we’ll speculate that Yedlin wins the Yahtzee roll on the right. Alternatively, Shea could be bumped up to left midfield with Garza behind, which gives the US a bit of width and more important, probably balances out the Yedlin-Shea “who goes up” debate that undoubtedly will leave the US caught out on occassion.
Ventura Alvarado should feature at some point, however, and Americans would do well to quickly write off the two somewhat subpar cameos Alvarado made in Europe this March. The Club América product brings a skillset that is fairly unique to the US along the backline: positional flexibility (he can play CB and does play as the 3rd CB for Club América), outstanding recovery speed and the ability to handle out of the back. In a world where I was confident with what Klinsmann’s plan was, a back four featuring Ream and Alvarado in the center ahead of Yarbrough would actually make sense– a libero style goalkeeper and a higher, more attack-minded backline. I’ve no confidence that makes sense but do think Alvarado is a talent unique to the US player pool and a great recruiting coup by Klinsmann.
The midfield is an interesting question. Jurgen Klinsmann continues to be hell-bent on playing Michael Bradley, who I believe remains CONCACAF’s best field player, with all due respect to Porto’s Héctor Miguel Herrera, as the nominal tip of a diamond formation. Bradley, whose late charging runs from much deeper positions exemplified his usefulness and exhibited his brilliance as a complimentary attacking piece under his father, Bob Bradley, seems out of sorts at the top of the diamond, despite an ever impressive work and touch rate.
But Bradley’s at his best when he’s able to dig in and influence the game with his tackling, ball-winning and smarts, and then involving himself in the game when flow demands it. His charging goal against Slovenia is one example, except he wasn’t as deep there as often is the case. His second goal against Mexico in 2009 is a better example (minute six):
That Michael Bradley covered more ground than any player in Brazil for the Yanks, at a time he needed foot surgery, speaks both to Bradley’s desire to please his manager and the foolhardy nature of the strategy: MB 90’s natural inclination is to win the ball and involve himself in the scrum, all things rather antithetical to the idea of him being a number ten.
Bradley creates by winning the ball and playing a smart, quick and accurate pass. The demand that he press higher and higher up the pitch and remove himself from where he’s most effective not only deprives the US of its sharpest defensive mind in the midfield during opponent build-ups, it also tires out the US player who the Americans most desperately need to have when sealing leads late.
We’d like to see the US set up without that demand on Michael in the future. How possible that is remains to be seen, with no immediate playmaker present and the presumed heir, Mix Diskerud, continuing to look like a player without a position, even now as he labors under the watchful eye of Jason Kreis.
The reality? A return to the double pivot would seem the best way for Klinsmann to get the most out of his best player as the US head into the summer. At the very least, Bradley needs a destroyer behind him and lateral help with him to get him to an optimal level of effectiveness, and with the personnel the US have in San Antonio, it is hard to see where that comes from tomorrow night.
All this said, we’ll look for this lineup from the US tomorrow night, with three brief caveats:
Potential starting 11 for the US in San Antonio…
1) Alvarado could start given the opponent and a brief Klinsmann moment of sentiment;
2) Zardes showed he could interplay a bit with Clint Dempsey for moments in Europe; can he do that with an advanced Michael Bradley– or better stated, does Jurgen Klinsmann think he can, rightly or wrongly;
3) Yarbrough in goal, see #1.
And what will we see out of Mexico?
It’s important to note that in spite of Mexico’s recent good form, this isn’t even the best squad of Liga MX players that Herrera could have summoned. El Tri will fight a war on two fronts this summer, competing in both the CONCACAF Gold Cup and in CONMEBOL’s Copa América. That means Miguel Herrera and his assistants have to delve deeper into the player pool than, say, Jurgen Klinsmann has to for the US (not that he hasn’t been digging really deep with pretty much every squad selection since the World Cup). So assuming Mexico prioritizes the Gold Cup over the Copa, this latest player pool is comprised of guys looking to either make the Copa América squad, or serve as fringe players on the Gold Cup squad.
The fact that these are not Mexico’s best players is absolutely worthy of note, but it’s not something that should inspire great confidence in the Yanks’ chances. Miguel Herrera still manages Mexico, and we’ve seen him take a side made entirely of Liga MX talent and go qualify for the World Cup. We’ve also seen his teams retain the same style of play from squad to squad, even when those squads had no roster overlap. In fact, the only thing about this squad that causes me to question just what we’ll see is the lack of Club América players. América has a packed schedule ahead; one that includes the two-legged CONCACAF Champions League Final against the Montreal Impact, so Herrera is leaving his old players off of this “tryout” version of El Tri. But it’s been Herrera’s old Club América players that have helped establish the balanced but fluent style that defines his version of the national team. He’s always either fielded a ton of América players, or the best Mexico has to offer with a sprinkling of Club América guys. This roster, it’s the El Tri equivalent of “what would Jurgen do if he couldn’t select (almost) any players who had German moms?” We could finally see a Herrera team that doesn’t play like a Herrera team. But I wouldn’t count on it.
Among the players that are here, Francisco Javier Rodriguez provides the only real “experience”– his 98 caps are more than the rest of the team combined. A pair of exciting young players to watch are Jürgen Damm Rascón, a player of German ancestry that is quite dangerous. Damm has suitors in Europe and for good reason: he’s quick off the dribble and his handles are good. His passing is still a work in progress but he might be the newest Mexican player to devastate the US off the incut or dazzle on the bounce. Here’s some grainy video of him doing his thing:
Additionally, former Real Salt Lake homegrown talent Carlos Salcedo is in this team, and could earn his first cap. MLS fans will be familiar with his talent which he’s since taken to Liga MX. Cubo Torres, who will return to the Dynamo shortly, is the other obvious name to American fans.
4-3-3 may suit this personnel best, but the team will be five or three in the back at the Gold Cup with Herrera’s preferred wingbacks, so it is difficult to predict tactically what they’ll look like tomorrow.
For more on this incarnation of Mexico, we recommend you listen to our friends at Total Soccer Show, who had CONCACAF savant Jon Arnold on to talk El Tri.
Brek Shea has been vastly better for Orlando. It helps to play soccer games.
US Player to Watch: Brek Shea
Shea has been an important player throughout the Klinsmann regime, despite constantly falling in and out of favor with his clubs and with Jurgen himself. He’s often an impact sub for the Yanks, most notably in Klinsmann’s first ever match against Mexico, and in match winning performances in the 2013 Gold Cup. Now Shea’s been given a new lease on life in the MLS and with the USMNT, and a new position to go with it. Early returns are good, but can American soccer’s ultimate wild card pull a DaMarcus Beasley and complete the seemingly unthinkable conversion to left back?
My answer: I’m still not convinced, but like Fox Mulder, I want to believe.
When DaMarcus started his conversion he already had a World Cup Qualifying start at left back under his belt. Bob Bradley started Beasley there against Trinidad and Tobago in 2009. The US kept a clean sheet. Meanwhile Brek is embarking on this journey with nothing but a career’s worth of defensive neglect already in the books. Remember, this is the guy most people love to scapegoat for the U23’s missing out on the London Olympics (yet we have selective amnesia when it comes to the great Caleb Porter).
But it’s not all cons for Shea, he’s ticking off boxes in the pro column and turning fans into Breklievers every match. Despite the fact that in this writer’s view Brek should have been included on the World Cup roster as a potentially game-changing subtitute, there’s a sense that the 25 year old is down to his last chance with the national team. And after his injury riddled years in England this “no margin for error” feeling extends to his club career as well. So Brek’s throwing himself into the left back role with both the Yanks and Orlando City, and he actually looks good. He’s as energized as we ever saw him in his early glory days with FC Dallas; the overlapping runs and makeup speed are both working exactly as one might have hoped, and somehow he doesn’t look completely out of his depth when it comes to on-ball defending. Pretty impressive for a guy who routinely neglected the defensive half of the pitch prior to 2015.
Still, I’ve got obvious and important questions about his marking off the ball, his spatial recognition in the defensive third, and how he’ll cope when he’s got a classy winger running at him. We should all have these questions and more when it comes to defender Brek Shea. But as of now it looks like he’s on track to become the James Harden of MLS. “From Clown Shoes Defending To Pretty Aight On D: The Harden & Shea Stories”? We could have a best seller on our hands. At the very least it’s already looking more likely a book about Jermaine Jones becoming a reliable center back.
Dynamo goal producer Cubo Torres will challenge the US back four.
Mexican Player to Watch: Erick “Cubo” Torres
MLS fans know forward Cubo Torres from his prolific years at now defunct Chivas USA, and for scoring some absolutely stunning goals. Right now, the 22 year old is on a mandatory six month loan to Chivas Guadalajara in Liga MX, but the Houston Dynamo own his rights. No doubt he’ll be back in MLS bulging the back of the net soon, but is this his opportunity to make his name on the Mexican national team? Probably so. When Cubo plays Cubo scores, so expect him to find the back of net against whichever back four (or three, or five) Jurgen fields on Wednesday. Mexico’s depth at striker is enviable before even taking hybrid attackers like Gio dos Santos or Marco Fabián into account, and it’s that attacking depth that’s limited Torres to three caps and one senior team goal up to this point. He won’t stay on either of those numbers for long. Let’s just hope the US can keep him off the score sheet in San Antonio, and let’s hope even harder that Rubio Rubin starts scoring at a Cubo-esque rate in the near future.
Prediction: USA 2 – 1 Mexico
Jurgen Kilnsmann’s USMNT has never lost to Mexico, and he’ll be damned if this grab bag version of the Mexican national team will become the first to beat him. Besides, if the last World Cup cycle is to teach us anything it’s that the devastating rivalry loss we fear will come at a much more important time, like in the Gold Cup Final. Cubo gets a goal, but the Yanks flip the script and turn in a second half performance that doesn’t suck, finally. Most the Alamodome crowd goes home disappointed.
Enjoy the match, and Go USA!
Jon Levy co-founded The Yanks Are Coming with Neil W. Blackmon. Follow them on Twitter at @TYAC_Jon and @nwblackmon.