Without their #10, the US moves forward.
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon
Well, here we are, after all the emotion- even if it still feels slightly bizarre or surreal- of Friday night. The first match of the post-Donovan era (when Donovan wasn’t an available player in the pool not chosen by his manager!) begins on a hopeful note, as young players have been impressive in two matches since the World Cup. Everyone should be feeling good about this “If DeAndre Yedlin can do it, so can I!” attitude. Not so fitting though that this match is being played in retiree mecca Boca Raton, Florida. “Ladies get your walkers, we’re going to the Town Center!”
The usuals, which means:
Series:22nd meeting. United States lead, 14-4-3. Of all the CONCACAF nations that have qualified for a World Cup, the US have had the second-best luck against Los Catrachos. Bonus points for the CONCACAF country that’s qualified for a World Cup the Yanks have fared the best against? All that said, the Americans did lose to Honduras last cycle in World Cup qualifying, 2-1 in San Pedro Sula. Our match wrap from that disaster. Which led to Brian Straus’ piece on Klinsmann’s leadership. And then the Snow-clasico. Well, you know the rest of the story.
Point is, there is history here and the games, especially over the last eight years, when Honduras has been a pier of the Americans and not a CONCACAF minnow, are almost always very competitive. Every game between these two nations since 2005 has been decided by two goals or less.
This is the second time the teams have met in South Florida. The Americans won in a driving rain in Miami, 1-0, on October 8, 2011, through this rather brilliant Clint Dempsey goal.
Weather: Speaking of driving rain… chance of thunderstorms is around 50 percent. If the thunderstorms come early, it could be pleasant- low 70’s at kick. If they come late– you are looking at temperatures around 80 degrees at kick with high humidity. South Florida in October, right before it cools off a few degrees and gets nice down there (aka just before the snowbirds show up).
One other thing, because we can…Venue: Jokes aside, the stadium at Florida Atlantic University is brand new and it’s a great place to watch soccer. It has been full for soccer before: a near capacity crowd saw Germany and Ecuador play a year and a half ago. It’s been loud before too: a smaller, but very vocal crowd saw the USWNT defeat Russia there. But it has not, as of yet, hosted the USMNT. With only 10,000 tickets sold in advance, the crowd could be quite small. That’s disappointing, and not just because nine World Cup players are on the US roster. It’s disappointing because Boca Raton and FAU would seem to be a more feasible, logical place for Major League Soccer than any of David Beckham’s proposed Miami locations, which have either been vetoed, or are stuck in the South Beach sand. And while a source tells TYAC that FAU and Beckham have had preliminary discussions– a tiny crowd at a USMNT match might be a non-starter for Don Garber.
After that aside…
How about giving a young goalkeeper a look, Jurgen?
The particulars:
Jon Levy on what to watch for from the Yanks:
I’m looking for a natural progression of what we’ve seen in the last two matches, but with a different combination: national team veterans and young blood. In this case that natural progression would entail dominating possession, and playing flowing soccer to create chances. Honduras is tenacious, physically imposing, and talented, but their midfield isn’t as good as Ecuador or the Czech Republic, so I look for the Yanks to control the ball even better in this match than they did in the last two. That would be a feat, especially if you’re trying to out-do the first half against Czech Republic. That said, this is an achievable feat, and one that should be expected from a team with aspirations greater than CONCACAF.
Tactical set-up? There’s some clamoring for a 4-3-3. There was even a discussion about it on Best Soccer Show. Not against it. Just don’t think we’ll see it tonight in a match where Klinsmann has nine of his World Cup players at his disposal and called multiple DP’s in from MLS to bolster the team. That means a US lineup that looks like this (again, the ASN Link with our line-up), followed by “explanation”.
Goalkeeper: Hamid, because it is a new cycle, you reward the season he’s had, look to the future, and least of all, because the MLS Playoffs will do this better- you can showcase him for anyone in Europe scouting him with an eye on January.
Defense: Chandler inverted again as we suggested and saw against Ecuador. Two notes on the Eintracht Frankfurt man before we move on: 1) Was glad to see him in #21, Goodson’s old number. Like Goodson, Chandler is steady eddie most the time but he’s a lock for a big gaffe every game. He made one against Ecuador, and otherwise played strong soccer. 2) Chandler is probably the best defensive fullback the United States have, for now. Chris Klute has those teeth in the near future, and it remains to be seen where Shane O’Neill plays internationally (CB the bet here). But Chandler, from a pure defensive standpoint, is a step above Fabian Johnson and leagues better than Yedlin. Reps are critical here. Yedlin our choice on the other side, so as to get him starting reps at both his potential US positions. The footnote here? Yedlin probably plays both throughout his career in the Stars and Stripes.
We like Matt Besler to start for the first time since the Belgium match for the United States, and pair him with Michael Orozco-Fiscal, godfather of The Yanks Are Coming. MOF isn’t the best technical CB the US have, but he’s aggressive and does a nice job at keeping the oft-demanded Klinsmann high line. The line used to be that there were questions about his international ceiling. I think we know now that his international ceiling is limited, but against CONCACAF sides, he’s had a terrific two year run.
The hottest player in MLS anchors the American center.
Midfield spots were a bit easier. Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones didn’t get called in during a playoff run to sit. They anchor the central midfield. Does Jones’ sterling form continue in Boca? Does Bradley reassert his brilliance after a subpar (by his standards) World Cup? Dempsey slots in his “try stuff” role behind Jozy Altidore- it’s the spot he’s been most effective in under Jurgen Klinsmann. That left two spots: one we give to Graham Zusi, who didn’t come in to camp to watch Yedlin play and despite limitations is just a smarter player than Joe Corona, who could have the other spot.
Ale Bedoya worked his rear end off the other night, and the thinking here is he gets a break/role shift, coming in to track back and defend after the US take a lead. I’m not sure the US can afford to utilize the defensively savvy Bedoya like this all World Cup cycle, and we’re aware he grew up in Fort Lauderdale, a short jaunt down the turnpike from Florida Atlantic. But if, as Klinsmann says, every friendly is about building something, then this might be the time to start Diskerud and let Bedoya come in when the US lead.
Speaking of playing with the lead…
This team must also do a better job of dealing with success. The disturbing trend of playing poorly when leading first reared its head after the early goal in Natal against Ghana, but it continued into the final stages of the Portugal match, and we’ve seen a dip in play when leading over both the Czechs and Ecuador. Yes, some of this can be attributed to a natural tightening of the defensive shell when we’re leading, but teh Yanks simply must endeavor to move the ball when we’re ahead or goals like the Enner Valencia deflection in Hartford are inevitable. Remember the US was also lucky to get out of Prague without conceding, though it was nice to see Brad Guzan inspire the fan base with that amazing display.
I’m also looking for performances out of the relatively new players on this squad. Sean Johnson and Bill Hamid aren’t new to the national team, but one of them might get a big chance in net on Tuesday night (we’ve tabbed Hamid because he’s certainly earned a shot at the belt with his fiery second half shutout of the World Cup champs, um, I mean Bayern Munich…see how that’s still really impressive?). Meanwhile, I’m ready for Joe Corona to continue to impress me like he did in the 2013 Gold Cup, and not be just technically proficient without flash, which is what I saw PLUS an error or two Friday night. Finally, if Alfredo Morales wants to notch another all-action display in defensive midfield, I’m ready to see more of the tempestuous player. Morales needs to make these appearances count: regardless of his eligibility elsewhere, Maurice Edu and Amobi Okugo are both on-call in Philadelphia, and Edu’s had the kind of year that makes you think he could be this cycle’s Kyle Beckerman- the guy who becomes the player he can be in his late twenties and early thirties, and makes a national team impact (again) for the Americans.
Andy Najar has been stellar at Anderlecht, but in a different position. Can he deliver for Honduras?
Neil W. Blackmon on what will we see out of Honduras?
Hello there Honduras, you steady bastion of CONCACAF competence and consistency. Los Catrachos represent a model of adequacy, but we can argue whether that attribute is more accolade or albatross. As for the October 2014 version of this team, under new manager Hernán Medford, I see a squad eager to take the next step, but keenly aware that failure to do so could mean extreme regression down the ladder in this continually improving CONCACAF field.
The Shawshank Redemption teaches us many lessons, and chief among them is “get busy livin’, or get busy dyin’.” It’s not “get busy treading water,” which is what Honduras has been doing for a two World Cup cycles now. So how does this team attempt to take the next step without setting off the booby traps? (yes, we’ve moved from Shawshank to Indiana Jones with our movie metaphors)…
Honduras qualified third out of CONCACAF for Brazil but left the tournament the region’s lone disappointment, dropping all three matches. The largest questions for Medford, it would appear, are finding who can score goals again and improving a midfield that is high on defensive quality but low on distributional ambition. The early sign, a 2-0 defeat last week against El Tri, wasn’t promising and a sign that Medford has his work cut out for him.
There are, however, some positives.
Honduras play two formations: a 4-4-2 that sometimes looks more like a 4-2-3-1 (what they dissected the US with through Roger Espinoza) or a 4-5-1, which they utilize in away matches a bunch and they tried (woefully) to slow down France and Chile (a little better) with at the World Cup.
The best players are in the midfield, but this group is without Wilson Palacios, who is probably the best of those players. Luis Garrido of the Houston Dynamo is the other central midfielder, and he’s not a great deal different than Palacios, except he drifts around the field more and is probably a less brutal destroyer than Palacios. I think he’s a better passer than Palacios too- though the comparison is like comparing two run-first option quarterbacks in football. Garrido will likely pair with Jorge Claros (this was the group for Honduras’ best performance at the World Cup, a fun 2-1 match against Ecuador), who does nothing exceptionally well outside of tackle but is also perhaps a better passer than Palacios. Claros was the deeper-lying member of the empty bucket against Ecuador, but the more forward lying one against the US in Salt Lake City (a match that Garrido missed due to card accumulation, if memory serves correct.)
Honduras typically play very narrow, even when talismanic wing midfielder Roger Espinoza is in the team (Tim Chandler will have to wait to exact his vengeance), and this is one reason the US can afford to be a bit narrow themselves tonight- all the while cognizant that there is risk involved in getting sucked in– this is a similar Honduran midfield to the one that gave the US fits in San Pedro Sula. In Brazil, the favored wing pairing was Espinoza on the left and Andy Najar slotted right, although they inverted Espinoza and played him with Boniek Garcia in the final match. Furthermore, there are questions about how much longer Los Catrachos will utilize Najar on the right side, especially with the Anderlecht man playing fullback for his club side. Najar was Anderlecht’s lone bright spot in a 3-0 drubbing against Dortmund earlier this month, creating issues for Dortmund down the right flank throughout the first half.
Boniek Garcia could be a reasonable challenge for the Americans down Yedlin’s/Chander’s flank.
Nonetheless, Najar played right wing against Mexico (without much success) in the prior friendly and we like him to again play there tonight. Marvin Chavez and Boniek Garcia remain in camp– the Dynamo man appears to be the preferred starter. An interesting question does present itself on the right– does Boniek Garcia receive the license to attack DeAndre Yedlin if that’s where the Sounders/Spurs youngster is deployed? And does Yedlin have the chops to not get turned, especially if Honduras floods that flank?
Defensively, this is essentially the “A Group.” The left side, led by Celtic’s Emilio Izaguirre and Hull’s Maynor Figueroa, are markedly better than the right. They were at the World Cup too, and opponents knew it, flooding the right flanks. Izaguirre’s overlapping runs give the Hondurans some of the only width they truly have, and again, it’s worth noting that this will and should test the Americans, regardless of whether it is Yedlin or Chandler at RB. Graham Zusi also brings a bit less pace to the RW spot than Ale Bedoya, so if both aren’t in the lineup, the Americans will need to help when Izaguirre bombs forward.
The right side of the defense isn’t bad, by CONCACAF standards in fact, it is fairly good, led by longtime CB Victor Bernardez, who’s ferocious in the air and a battler. He’s getting work in with a new partner in this camp– traditional right back Brayan Beckeles was a popular scapegoat after the World Cup and is out, replaced by Honduran-based Wilmer Crisanto against Mexico. Sadly for Honduras, the results were the same, a gritty tackler but a poor technical defender who is slow on the turn. The US will look to operate on this side, as everyone does.
When Honduras attack, the idea is simple as ever: two banks of four, stay organized, be physical, don’t get beat on set pieces. Induce the opponent into a street fight instead of a fluid soccer match. When Honduras do that (most of the time at home), they are a competent and sometimes better than competent side. When they don’t, they are steamrolled, like against France to open their World Cup. Honduras also get frustrated quickly: several brutal tackles against France went mostly unpunished once the game turned south- and though the friendly reduces that risk a bit- it’s worth worrying about for the playoff bound Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones.
Typically, Honduras want to utilize their wing players to instigate attacks, which is part of the reason they can’t move Najar and part of the reason that I don’t understand why they’ve insisted, at times, on using two forwards. It would seem an extra midfielder might help the wing players take more chances up the field, but Suarez was reluctant to give them that help. The forwards have changed a bit in this camp: gone is America-killer Carlos Costly and the irritable Jerry Bengston, in are youngsters Roger Rojas, a very promising player, and Romell Quioto, who I was exposed to for the first lengthy amount of time against Mexico. The hope is that the two young players become consistent goal scorers: something Bengston and Costly, despite flashes, were not as they got older.
Neil W. Blackmon on the Honduran Player to Watch: Roger Rojas.
If Rojas plays tonight, it will be his 27th appearance for Los Catrachos. Yet he’s only scored three goals. This is somewhat surprising: Rojas can hang off a shoulder and has a great engine, and was preferred by Suarez to Bengston until the veteran apologized for his petulance conveniently before the World Cup. Now on loan in Saudi Arabia, Rojas is out of his Honduran comfort zone with Olimpia and on to the next stage of his “development.” The thing is, he’s now 24- Altidore’s age- so if the goals are going to come, they’d better start coming.
Rojas was compared, early on in his development, to Honduras’ legendary forward El Matador, Wilmer Velasquez- but Velasquez had 35 goals in the blue and white to Rojas’ three, and Rojas has now gotten more than half the opportunities! It’s nice to move on from Carlos Costly and Jerry Bengston, because they were old. But the key to Honduras improving or maintaining its position as probable CONCACAF World Cup qualifier will depend on whether Rojas is an upgrade over the previous forwards or a disappointment.
Looking like it is close to Mix’s time.
Jon Levy on the US Player to Watch: Mix Diskerud
This feels like a big moment for the young midfielder, and not just because he’s the type of player we all imagine should thrive in one role or another. That may have been the case in years past, but now Mix has a resume dammit, and that resume says a lot more about capabilities than limitations. Most Mix fans have been salivating over his passing in the attacking third since the post World Cup 2010 friendly in South Africa in which he made his debut. But from that game up until a little over a year ago Diskerud detractors could point to a lack of consistency in the young player’s game. He’d have moments where he’d thrill, and then look out of his depth for ten minutes, shut down by close physical marking. Now this is where your Mix fan contingent would come in with arguments about Norwegian-American being played out of position. Counterpoint from the haters, “what is his actual position then!?”
But Mix’s play over the course of the past year stopped a lot of those arguments. He dazzled with a wonder-goal in a friendly against Russia. Then he capped a wonderful 2013 Gold Cup by filling in for the injured Stuart Holden in the true central midfield spot, and essentially running the show all match versus a good Panama team in the tournament final. Not to be pigeon-holed into the “he’s a Gold Cup player” category, Mix came on as a winger against Mexico in World Cup qualifying and promptly created multiple scoring chances for his teammates, one of which was buried by Landon Donovan to put the Yanks up by an oh so pleasing dos-a-cero.
And while Mix was an unused substitute at the World Cup in Brazil, all the 24 year old’s done in two internationals since Germany’s triumph is fire shot across captain Clint Dempsey’s bow by slotting in at his attacking midfield spot and playing the position beautifully, more like a “trequartista” than a bulldog. While Diskerud’s trials as the “number ten” have shown him to be overmatched in the past, he now seems to have the guile and spatial awareness to live in the kitchen, handle the heat, and use his tremendous vision to slice through defenses. Oh and he’s popping up in the right spots without the ball too; you probably saw his cool finish against Ecuador on Friday night.
But I’m not suggesting Clint Dempsey should be the only one threatened by Mix’s play. Further back in the midfield Michael Bradley and Jermaine Jones would also do well to stay on alert. Diskerud’s skills are just as useful in the center of the park, and while Michael Bradley is still America’s best field player, in time we could see him reassume, permanently, the defensive midfield role, this as aging American World Cup star Jermaine Jones makes way for the MB90/Mix partnership.
All of this is hypothetical of course, and given Diskerud’s glut of playing time in the last two matches, we might not even see a lot of him in this match. But Mix should be the new poster boy for Jurgen Klinsmann’s new American midfield, and we should see a lot of him in this new World Cup cycle.
Prediction: USA 2 – 0 Honduras
The US gets off to another flying start, keeps pushing for that second goal, and Matt Besler shows growth in leadership by keeping the defense tight all night. Goals for Dempsey and substitute Joe Corona on a great night in Boca Raton.
Enjoy the match, and Go USA!
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Follow them on Twitter at @nwb_usmnt and @TYAC_Jon.