Go Time for Jurgen and company.
Jon Levy
USA – Azerbaijan: Your TYAC Preview
Welcome to the Send-off Series. And more than that, welcome to an incredibly strange, exciting, bittersweet, yet optimistic moment for US Soccer. Some of the aforementioned adjectives obviously stem from all-time USMNT great Landon Donovan’s exclusion from Jurgen Klinsmann’s World Cup squad, but let’s dispense with that storyline for just a minute by linking to Neil W. Blackmon’s incredibly even-handed aggregation of The Yanks Are Coming righteous indignation over the decision to omit one of the team’s best and most versatile players from the 23-man roster. No matter your opinion on the controversial move, this article is worth a read.
Now on to the strange case of two German footballing greats, the national teams they manage, and a professional relationship that we all hope will benefit the Yanks in their quest to, among other things, beat Germany.
Let’s talk the usuals before we dive into the specifics…
Series: First Meeting. Azerbaijan have played FIFA sanctioned football as an independent nation since 1992. They have never met the Yanks. Also of note tonight: this is the 100th match the US Men’s National Team will play in the state of California. Yes, the Americans haven’t played in San Francisco in a long time. But California is essentially the “home” of the USMNT, and the state has hosted more US matches than the next four closest states combined, and that’s including Florida’s 43 US matches.
Weather and Fabian Johnson “Misery Index”: For our new readers– Fabian Johnson hates hot weather. In fact, his match performances often coincide with the temperature where he is playing. As such, a really, really hot and humid day will give a “Fabian Johnson Misery Index” rating of 10; whereas a cool, clear and crisp day like you’ll often see in the Bundesliga gives a lower score. Tonight’s match in San Francisco will feature weather in the mid-50’s at kick, with the typical “Pre-June Gloom” marine layer over the stadium adding moisture. This is actually pretty darn good Fabian Johnson weather. Fabian Johnson “Misery Index” is 2.
Onto the match!!
Tuesday’s With Berti…
What will we see out of Azerbaijan?
Berti Vogts. Well, we’ll see him on the sidelines anyway.
The golden haired 1960’s/70’s German soccer cliché you see pictured is none other than Hans-Hubert Vogts… and you probably thought we got it bad with “Jürgen Klinsmann.” Just as Jurgen was nice enough to drop the umlaut for the ease of the American press, Vogts was nice enough/lucky to dispense with the Hans-Hubert and go by “Berti.” As it happens, our man Berti (and he really is ours now in a sense), was a German soccer legend as a player, so now he manages a national team that’s not Germany.
I know it all sounds a bit parallel to our fair manager’s resume, but it’s where these paths diverge in a wood, and how they come back together, that makes this story both interesting and relevant to the TYAC reader. After managing a number of national teams, including Germany, the 67 year old Vogts has settled into the not-quite-retirement of coaching Azerbaijan, and now serving as special opponent-scouting advisor to USMNT manager Jurgen Klinsmann. So theoretically the trusted Berti Vogts is helping the US by intensely scrutinizing Ghana, Portugal, and his native Germany. But will he do his buddy Jurgen the favor of organizing Azerbaijan similar to one of the three group stage opponents? Or will he task one of his players with becoming the scout team version of Asamoah Gyan or Sami Khedira? Probably not, but it’s definitely worth keeping in the back of your mind as you watch the match.
As for the team itself, it probably won’t surprise you that a guy who played defender on storied German national teams with Franz Beckenbauer opts to keep his often overmatched side well organized in defense. For all the talk of “European minnows” coming to play the US, this Azerbaijan squad only gave up eleven goals in ten matches in its World Cup qualifying group. These no-names notched six draws, most impressively against Russia, got their lone win against Northern Ireland, and they’re not coming to San Francisco to “give the Yanks something to look at.”
They also troubled Portugal in the home leg– holding a Ronaldo-less incarnation to one goal for about eighty minutes until Hugo Almeida sealed the match for the visitors on a beauty of a cross from Fabio Coentrao.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOyH1KWv_3Q
If you watch the above video, you’ll see that Azerbaijan are extremely capable at both organized defense and emergency defense– the late tackle on Poistiga is gorgeous at the outset of the clip– and they are adept at both because they remain compact even when pressed. They’ll flood clog the attacking third and make you break them down with precision through balls– hoping for the intercept that gives them a chance to counterattack. The counterattack, which is really the only way they score on film, usually starts off an intercept and through shuttling the ball to width. There really isn’t a player in the middle that can either beat you off the dribble or from distance to make anything but this tactically astute. Nonetheless, they have a great understanding of where each other are on the field and aren’t slow– meaning the US will have to be sharp on the break. It’s that eye to transition defense that helps the US most in this match in terms of defending the group stage opponents, particularly Ghana, who crush you in transition and Portugal, who want to get out on the break from width.
Can the captain and his guys start fast?
What to watch for from the Yanks:
Look for the first ten minutes of play to set the tone for rest of the game. We’ve identified a bit of a trend in prior first-match-of-the-camp situations under Klinsmann. Generally the team either slogs through a disjointed performance, never quite finding chemistry, or the Yanks start hot and ride their momentum. Granted, the team has had more time training together than usual, and the pressure of a World Cup camp is a variable unto itself, but I’m still looking for this mini-trend to continue. Thankfully, as we get into longer stretches of matches, this first-ten-minutes determinism hasn’t held true as Jurgen and his team have shown the ability to adapt to their circumstances. Bottom line here: The US rank last in the World Cup field in conceding early goals– troubling on all levels but especially concerning given Ghana rank 1st in the World Cup field at playing with the lead. The US need to start crisply from toe meets leather, if only to get used to doing so, or more aptly, to prove they can.
And of course we couldn’t get out of this section without a little Landon-gate redux. Most people who follow the team closely weren’t expecting Donovan to begin the World Cup in the starting lineup prior to surprising roster cut, but he’s a guy who could come off the bench or make a spot start at any of the three positions across Kilinsmann’s preferred line of attacking midfielders. But while Landon can change a game from either wing, perhaps his most important role on this version of the national team was going to be serving at Clint Dempsey’s preferred backup in-the-hole behind the striker. Obviously he plays that position differently than Dempsey does with his hard-nosed drive-the-lane approach (yes I know that’s dumbing Deuce down, I’m sorry), as Donovan’s silky skill might lend itself more to the term “trequartista.” Nevertheless, we saw Donovan establish his comfort and effectiveness playing this position as the 2013 Gold Cup wore on, and now we’re left asking, “who comes in for Clint?” And beyond that, the question everyone is asking: Who are the differences makers in the absence of you know who.
Tonight is one of three chances to iron out who the difference makers are without that guy.
More often than not the answer has been a mid-match switch to 4-4-2, and I’m certainly not against putting Aron Jóhannsson on the field, but what if Clint is injured or suspended and can’t start a match in which Jurgen wants to use his favored 4-2-3-1? The options are limited to say the least. Mix Diskerud has been great in other midfield spots, but inconsistent in-the-hole to say the least, despite the fact that his skill-set seems to lend itself to that position. And Diskerud’s absolute refusal, exposed versus high-level competition, to track back at all won’t garner Klinsmann’s trust moving forward into the Group of Death, where beyond Ghana (and that is even arguable) the US aren’t likely to have the lion’s share of possession. So who else? Graham Zusi has barely seen ten minutes at the central attacking position in his national team career, though he deputizes there for his club at times. And while Jóhannsson might be capable of pulling the strings and running at the net, he’s also not been asked to do that. Meanwhile, if Klinsmann decides to embrace Michaal Bradley’s distributive talents in the final third, you’re losing you best midfielder from the heart of the midfield, a spot that he’ll almost certainly have to anchor if this team is going to have a chance of advancing out of the World Cup’s group of death.
I don’t think anyone expects Clint Dempsey to play ninety minutes in San Francisco, so we’ll all be watching the substitutions for Jurgen to tip his hand.
The good news? Klinsmann has promised to substitute liberally and earlier than often– earlier meaning prior to the 60th minute- which has been his “substitution time”, despite tweets and pleas to make them earlier– all cycle. Expect Klinsmann to make changes at the break. Guys almost certain to get run outs: Chris Wondolowski, Alejandro Bedoya (starting if it’s a 4-2-3-1, we’d expect), Yedlin, Julian Green, and probably Diskerud if only to get his sea legs.
The US defense will be more fascinating to watch in the next two matches- especially the Turkey match, where Turkey can cut you apart in-cutting from the flanks or dissect you through the channels on the break- but it’s worth noting the back four in this match, especially given Klinsmann’s comments yesterday that “he won’t tinker with back four” during the World Cup. The gaffer isn’t the most popular right now so he was excoriated for that view on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/JerseyJBradley/status/471079605650993152
It seemed pretty clear he was talking about things in a vacuum, and the guy is a bit busy to say “Assuming there aren’t suspensions due to cards or injuries…”– but the underlying point is useful. The US back four tonight is, with some level of certainty, going to be the back four next month. At TYAC, we have put even money on Johnson/Beasley-Besler-Cameron-??? with Timmy Chandler somewhere in the mix to steal a job- and that job probably being Beasley’s not Johnson’s at this point. Regardless, expect the normal course (60 minutes or so) for whatever the grouping is to get some chemistry going.
Which leads us to…
Back. Saying the right things. Interested? Ready?
US Player to Watch: Timmy Chandler
Well this is more a “position to watch” than it is a focus on a single player, but Chandler should be the right back we all root for, even you Seattle.
This past summer the Yanks went on a historic run. They launched a winning streak that the national team may never match, and they did this all without a real right back. Seattle Sounders midfielder Brad Evans got the lion’s share of the minutes at right back in World Cup Qualifying, and center half/utility defender Michael Parkhurst played the position on the way to winning the Gold Cup. But neither is a natural right back, and as such, neither is even on this roster. Now is not the time or place to further hash out the silliness of Parkhurst, one of the finer technical defenders the US have ever produced- being omitted in favor of say, John Brooks, so back to Chandler. The 23 man is a squad packed with defenders; two full back lines of defenders in fact, so the positional versatility that would have created a spot for Parkhurst is no longer a necessity.
Furthermore, within the past week Jurgen Klinsmann confirmed something that was widely speculated: the manager is of the opinion that CB/RB/DMF Geoff Cameron is best suited to central defense, so scratch another contender off your right back list. So, if we accept the premise that now proven left winger Fabian Johnson will start somewhere along the left flank (and I think we should), we’re down to two options for your starting USMNT right back in Natal. It’s looking like 20 year old Seattle Sounder DeAndre Yedlin vs. Nuremberg’s 24 year old Timmy Chandler. The MLS kid with the funky hair who’s got just about zero experience with the senior national team vs. the return of “son of Frankenstein,” back to claim the throne we all wanted to put him on before he got discouraged by the Honduran heat and became disinterested in US Soccer.
Now the bald eagle that’s perpetually rocking out to heavy metal and screaming “AMERICA!” inside my soul is conflicted on who to root for in this battle. It would seem a no-brainer to root for the young American rock star who never had a crisis of confidence, never caused me to question his will or his toughness, and who’s actually lived in the USA. But that aforementioned heavy metal bald eagle really, really, REALLY likes to win, and Timmy Chandler gives this team the best chance to do that if he puts on his big boy pants performs to his potential. Chandler’s commitment is rightfully still on trial; hopefully we’ll all get the verdict we’re looking for starting on Tuesday night.
Big, physical central defender. Fair test pre-Ghana.
Azeri Player to Watch: Mahir Shukurov
I know what you’re thinking, “It was ALWAYS gonna be Mahir Shukurov!” Okay, maybe not quite.
My natural inclination when writing this section for a crap shoot “player to watch” team like Azerbaijan (aside from doing research), is to look at the US team, assess a weakness, and ask myself who on the other side of the ball is most likely to exploit it. With that in mind, I was all ready to tell you about an attacking player that would test yet another incarnation of the American back four, an obvious weakness for our team , because you’ve ideally already built a four-man defensive chemistry at this point in the proceedings. But while the US will surely still be debuting new defensive combinations, it’s on the other side of the pitch that we find center back Mahir Shukurov.
Shukurov anchors a defense that was able to contain every opponent in UEFA World Cup Qualifying (save for Portugal in Braga), and it’s my man Mahir’s organized and combative back line that should give the Yanks the greatest test in this match. Dempsey and Jozy will knock on the door, but will they break it down? If so, I feel at least a little better about exposing the ultra-physical defensive unit that Ghana brings to the table.
Prediction: USA 3 – 1 Azerbaijan
Three goals will make me really happy, and this might just be a match for Wondo. Though as indicated above, we definitely can’t count on a clean sheet in a match when we’re still test driving different defender combos.
Enjoy the match, and Go USA!
Jon Levy is Co-Founder and Co-Editor of The Yanks Are Coming. He can be reached at jon.f.levy@gmail.com and you can and should follow him on Twitter at @TYAC_Jon.