Clint Dempsey and the US face world number one Argentina tonight in the Copa America semifinals.
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon
The United States met their pre-Copa América goal of reaching the semifinals last Thursday night when they defeated Ecuador in Seattle. Their reward? A trip to Houston to face the number one team in the world, Argentina, who feature the best player in the world, Lionel Messi.
Tuesday night’s game at sold-out NRG Stadium (9PM, FS 1) is not, as at least one writer has argued, the most important game in the history of US Soccer. It arguably isn’t even the most important match the program has played under manager Jurgen Klinsmann. But it is an extraordinary opportunity for the US to claim a victory over a colossal opponent, one playing brilliant soccer and in facing Messi, a chance in tournament play against one of the game’s all-time greats.
For the Klinsmann faithful, the tournament to date has been vindication, a defiant “I told you so” to the naysayers; winning Tuesday night would be Sisyphus reaching the top of the hill and the boulder lodging into place. At the least, reaching this point is, as the gleeful manager pointed out Thursday evening, a sign of the “maturing” US players and program.
For the Klinsmann doubters, the US simply did what it ought to do at this stage in its modern footballing life- held serve at home against quality opposition. The semifinals were the goal and you’ve accomplished that. Can you win one?
As is often the case, the truth is somewhere in-between those spaces. But Tuesday night is a unique and special opportunity. The Stanley Cup and NBA Finals are over. The eyeballs of the American sporting world are on the Copa América and the US, brimming with confidence and playing in front of a home crowd, have a chance to do something special and reach an international (defined as not CONCACAF-only, or multi-federation) tournament final for only the second time in program history.
It’s a formidable challenge, but the fact it is going to be difficult is what makes it so compelling.
The TYAC preview then. Usuals. Then the particulars.
Series: 10th Meeting. Argentina lead, 5-2-2. The two nations have met two previous times at a Copa América. The first time, in 1995, the United States were still very much in their modern footballing infancy and Argentina were the defending champions of South America. The US stunned the South American footballing continent, winning 3-0.
ESPN FC did an incredible feature on the US 1995 Copa team, which, in the midst of a pay-dispute and playing under an interim manager in Steve Sampson, raced to the semifinals in Uruguay, dispatching the champion Argentines and El Tri of Mexico along the way. Read the verbal account here– you’ll be glad you did.
The US lost their other Copa meeting with Argentina, 4-1, under another interim manager, Bob Bradley, in 2007. A young Brad Guzan, head full of hair, had a front row seat on the American bench.
The countries have drawn in the two meetings since, both friendlies, though one- a 0-0 draw at the old Giants Stadium- was particularly memorable. Tim Howard put on a show, saving seven shots on goal in the opening half on a night when the US honored the international retirement of Kasey Keller and celebrated Landon Donovan’s 100th cap.
Weather: 80 degrees, perhaps a bit warmer at kick. Humid, because it is Houston in a month that isn’t January or February. It will be sultry and grimy and sweaty and well- not fun for Fabian Johnson, who hates hot weather. Fabian Johnson Misery Index: 9.
Leo Messi, who has four goals and two assists in 164 minutes at this Copa, leads Argentina. (Photo by Matthias Hangst/Getty Images)
Neil W. Blackmon on What to Watch for From Argentina:
A game that matters to La Albiceleste a great deal. Argentina have not won a major tournament since 1993, a long drought for any football superpower, but for a country with a player like Leo Messi, a near embarrassment.
There hasn’t been much centennial at the Copa América Centenario, with very few indications or reminders of Copa glories past. Very few posters or murals of former stars, no video reels of past moments, minimal reminders. Perhaps that’s the product of a tournament put together at the last minute in the aftermath of corruption scandals; perhaps not. Either way, it hasn’t seemed a genuine celebration. With Uruguay out and Brazil keeping with their historical trend of privileging other competitions, Argentina would seem a fitting winner.
Indeed, amidst the cynical roars that this is a cash-grab Copa América that means little, Gerardo Martino’s side have embraced the tournament as an opportunity to finally put Argentina back in the winner’s circle. This summer, Martino told the media in Houston, “is a chance to be remembered.” It also marks a chance to finish what Argentina could not the prior two summers, when it lost international finals at the 2014 World Cup and 2015 Copa América, first to Germany and then to Chile.
Both those tournaments were in South America, and the reception at home for each was brutal disappointment more than joy. The pressure on Argentina to win a major tournament in the age of Messi is nearly crushing: “Win, or don’t bother coming home,” was the headline of a recent op-ed in Buenos Aires.
Argentina enter the game playing brilliantly, having decimated all but one opponent at the Copa, a run of form which could amount to a passionate, maestro-like performance. But as the final draws closer, the pressure mounts, and if history is instructive, the weight of it and the demand to succeed may result in a nervy, cautious performance, particularly in what will be Argentina’s first game without an enormous portion of the crowd on their side.
Potential Starting Argentina 11.
Tactically, Argentina are very much a powerful attacking side that hope their technical brilliance creating chances and scoring goals will overcome the pallor of their defensive deficiencies. Gerardo Martino conceded as much in the aftermath of the 4-1 win over Venezuela in the quarterfinal, noting that when his side stopped moving the ball well Venezuela was able to put its imprimatur on the game. Turnovers and an inability to keep the ball and defend in the final third, even ahead two goals, gave Venezuela a chance to get back in the game. Martino acknowledged it and noted the side will need to be much better against the US to reach the final.
Martino hasn’t shown the level of rigidity and commitment to formation as his predecessor, Alejandro Sabella, did, but he favors the same system, in principle: a 4-3-3 that relies heavily on counterattack.
In terms of individual quality upfront, no other side in the Copa, and perhaps in the world, can match Argentina. Lionel Messi, Kun Agüero, Angel Di Maria and Gonzalo Higuaín are amongst the most effective attackers in world football. All are here, and all may play tomorrow against the States, with Angel Di Maria reporting progress after suffering an abductor strain early in the tournament.
Much of the pre-match talk will about “stopping” Leo Messi, who has four goals and two assists in only three games at this Copa. This isn’t really realistic. Contain and limit his damage seems a more attainable goal- and one that might be enough to help the Americans pull the upset.
“To state the obvious, he’s a very good player-for me, probably the best of all time,” U.S. captain Michael Bradley told reporters before the U.S. trained in Houston Sunday.
“But,” Bradley continued, “There are still plenty of examples of days where teams can collectively make the game hard on him.”
Messi traditionally lines up on the right of Martino’s 4-3-3, with Gonzalo Higuaín occupying the tip of the spear and one of Angel Di Maria, Benfica’s Nicolás Gaitán or Ezequiel Lavezzi, now getting rich in China, slotted out left. Di Maria’s forward deployment is particularly fascinating, and we’ll get to that. But back to the Barcelona star for a brief moment.
An early criticism of the superstar when he played for La Albiceleste was that he was that he was too deferential—that he involved teammates to the team’s detriment. Messi has become more assertive as the years have passed, but it is largely that his understanding, particularly with Kun Agüero, Di Maria and to some extent Marcos Rojo, is masterful. Messi likes to cut inside from right to left on the ball, and while appear to be gliding, slowing ever so subtly to wait on a run from the left to play a through ball before darting on his own run shortly after release. His movement on a field is art, and Michael Bradley is correct to suggest the US should attempt to make life difficult on him, and force him wider, away from his favored number ten zones. The US doesn’t have a Bastian Schweinsteiger to do that, of course, but the idea and concept is conceptually honest. The Barcelona star is one of the greatest to ever play. He’ll have his moments. The US need to make them harder to find.
To do this, the US may be wise to use Kyle Beckerman and/or summon the double-pivot of World Cup cycles past. It’s a formula the Swiss used nearly masterfully in Brazil, double-marking Messi out of a double pivot and crashing on him whenever he received the ball in his favored number ten area. While the first midfielder was often fooled, over pursued or simply beaten off the dribble, the second tended to be there to clean up, forcing Messi off the ball or forcing him into a hurried pass.
As a result of the two holding midfielders playing such a strict role, the two Swiss wide midfielders tucked inside and played very narrow, protecting the center and shuttling the play to the flanks, a particularly useful idea against a team that does most its damage on the incut.
Neither Swiss midfielder contributed much going forward, save some honest secondary runs forward when possession was secure, but this might suit the US anyway if Beckerman and Bradley are the call, particularly if they can win the ball through Bradley and ping long diagonals at a marginal Argentine back four.
The other Argentine attacking pieces, of course, are capable of winning the game too. But if Di Maria cannot play, the US are better for it. The PSG man is often mischaracterized as a pure winger, and while it appears Martino is reluctant to utilize him deeper and more central- alla Jose Mourinho—it is Di Maria’s understanding and ability to drift, shuttle and add defensive bite to Argentina that is missed when he is out. Di Maria is also a passing wizard, a divine chipper of the ball who can shift from dribble to pass in an instant- deadly against an offside trap.
In midfield, the anchor and key player for Argentina other than Messi- maybe even more than Messi? – is Javier Mascherano. Now 32, El Jefecito moves forward less than he used to, sitting about ten to fifteen yards ahead of his CB’s, exploding runners through the channels and playing the simple passes to the more forward-minded Ever Banega and either Augusto Fernandez or Érik Lamela . The latter two options appear to have phased out Lucas Biglia of Lazio, who was a scapegoat in (a Messi-less) Argentina’s 2-0 home defeat to Ecuador in World Cup qualifying last autumn. Absent Mascherano, the midfield is a solid group but not a particularly intimidating unit, and against Venezuela, the lack of a possession link between them and the front three was noticeable. Di Maria’s presence could alter that, but without him, this is a continuing area where Argentina just hope to cover up mild flaws.
Back in his boyhood state of Texas, Ramior Funes Mori starts for a shaky Argentina defense.
Further, while Argentina historically have produced brilliant CB’s and consistent full-backs, big concerns, dating back to Brazil, over the lack of quality in the defensive section of the side persist.
This makes Mascherano absolutely indispensable—his ability to marshal the back four is absolutely paramount – a side can compensate for a lack of individual quality at the back with good structure, strategy and understanding. Argentina will create chances on the break. It’s a matter of how organized they remain in the back that dictates whether they need plenty of goals or just one or two to win the day.
The CB’s in particular are no better than average, whatever their club pedigree. It is not a stretch to argue Geoff Cameron and John Brooks will be the best two CB’s on the field Tuesday night. Funes Mori, who plays for Everton, makes frenetic fun runs getting forward, but often can’t defend a swinging gate; much less track a quality run. His partner, Nicolás Otamendi, plays for Manchester City, and is an upgrade aerially over what Argentina have offered in the past but is a positional nightmare. The US will miss Bobby Wood, who can run at a CB pair and muscle them, particularly a pair like this that is prone to positional error and separating too easily.
The goalkeeper will be Sergio Romero. Romero is another Argentine who plays for a club that flatters his actual quality. Romero, who played almost none at Monaco in 2014 before moving to Manchester United before the 2014-15 season, saved Luis Seijas’s botched panenka in the quarterfinals. But he also let in this howler at Swansea last year, which suggests the US would do well just to put the ball on frame.
Jon Levy on What to expect from the US:
Expect the US to build on what’s already working, and embrace the moment rather than going into a defensive shell for ninety minutes. That means they’re truly going to try and play with the number one team in the world, and that’s exactly what they should do in a semifinal on home turf. This is about continuing to throw punches (even without Jermaine Jones on the field… get it?!) and showing that we’ve progressed from the possession/style failure that was the World Cup match against Belgium. That doesn’t mean there won’t be any bunker defense; it’s going to be absolutely necessary for portions of this game. But it does mean focusing on playing the ball to put a stop to the Argentine barrage at some point, rather than booting it back to their defenders and essentially saying “try again.”
Jürgen’s made some strides tactically as a manager in the last two years, even if it’s been two steps forward, one step back (sometimes two steps back) in a few respects. He knows the US must challenge for the midfield and pressure Romero’s goal, thankfully Venezuela provided a bit of a playbook as to how to do the latter. But I think Jurgen now gets this point: Matches like Spain Confed Cup ’09 and to a much larger extent Belgium World Cup ‘14 may have produced memorable American heroics, but they don’t represent the approach that’s most likely to yield a winning result. Ninety minutes of bunker defense is not the job Klinsmann was hired to do. That’s the not the way forward.
The US will be without three key players, but DeAndre Yedlin does return.
So how can the US even hope to play with Messi (the world’s best player, and 2014 World Cup Golden Ball winner) and Javier Mascherano (the guy that actually deserved the Golden Ball as the 2014 World Cup’s best player), without Jermaine Jones, Bobby Wood, and Alejandro Bedoya? Short answer: not easily. But one aspect of this Copa América squad that’s been (rightly) nearly universally lauded from jump is its depth. Now we put that depth to the Jurgen beep test, if you will. So what does Klinsmann do? He’s trying to keep consistency with regard to the positive play that’s helped his team to the semi, but he’s without his best hold-up forward, a box-to-box winger who’s been defending all over the field all tournament, and a dynamic central midfielder that always embraces the big stage. That’s a tall task, but as Michael Bradley pointed out this weekend, it’s not mission impossible.
I think Jurgen Klinsmann starts by inserting DeAndre Yedlin back into the starting lineup at right back. You can make a case for keeping Matt Besler on the field, tucked in and shielded by Graham Zusi, for example, and I won’t be surprised if Klinzy sticks with that Ecuador back four, but my money’s on Yedlin-Cameron-Brooks-Fabian if I have to place a bet.
And since the 4-4-2 has been a big part of the American success starting in the Costa Rica beat down, I’m expecting it to stick around for this match. But who partners MB90 in the middle, and who works the wing across the field from Gyasi Zardes? The popular theory is that Graham Zusi plays out wide, and in the middle Jurgen has to choose between an offensive option in Darlington Nagbe, and defensive midfielder/Dred Pirate Kyle Beckerman. Obviously Kyle is the more trusted option, and we know he’ll get back and at least attempt to harry Argentine attackers. But Nagbe keeps the ball better than Beckerman, and the US will likely need that attribute in order to “play with Argentina.” Beckerman has also lost some lateral mobility, which is a problem against a team that lives off the incut. Neither option here is wrong, but Jürgen’s answer will tell us a lot about his mindset. I know 2014 Klinsmann would start Beckerman in this spot, but I think 2016 Klinsmann might just surprise us and opt for Nagbe.
Oh and there’s one more option to consider, one that allows for both guys to get into that starting eleven. Zusi is this squad’s prototypical winger, and he’s a motor guy, one who will run forever, so most of us are just assuming he starts for Bedoya. But Bedoya hasn’t been playing the role of a prototypical winger in this tournament. He’s been tracking back, defending, shifting into more central positions, and helping the Yanks keep the ball. I know Portland Timbers fans and most people that know Nagbe’s game balk hard at the mention of him playing on a wing (nobody puts Baby in a corner!), but he should be an option for that Bedoya role. Could that be an inspired play that allows Beckerman to get on the field in the double-pivot referenced above to help shield the back four alongside MB 90?
And then there was one decision left. Who partners Clint Dempsey up top? Gyasi Zardes has been playing well in the midfield, but he’s a forward. Do you slide him forward and hope he stays hot? I wouldn’t. Bobby Wood’s hold-up play has been such a big part of what’s going right lately, and, like Pele, Zardes isn’t best suited to have his back to a goal. Didn’t think you were ever gonna read a Pele-Zardes comparison did ya? Stick with TYAC, we have a good time.
Another massive test for John Brooks, who has been tremendous at this Copa America.
But outside of Wood, the American hold-up forward options are pretty limited. I won’t be surprised to see Wondo get the runout. On the opposite side of that coin, I will be just shy of shocked to see Christian Pulisic start with Dempsey, but I think the kid might actually be able to do the job. By the way, couldn’t’ the US really use that Jordan Morris guy about right now? Especially against two CB’s daring you to run at them and make them play defense?
Two final notes: one subtle, one obvious.
The subtle? Geoff Cameron made a dreadful set piece error against Colombia and most people just remember that which is a shame because he’s been outstanding at this tournament. His leadership and the faith his teammates have in him, particularly John Brooks, has allowed other players to excel.
Speaking of John Brooks- the obvious point.
American player of the tournament thus far John Brooks is going to have to step his game up with the rise in competition yet again. I think he can do it. Brooks is putting in the most lights-out defense performance by an American sports star in a big international tournament since goalie Ryan Miller owned the ice at the Vancouver Winter Olympic Games in 2010. Miller frustrated a great Finland team in the semifinal, en route to winning tournament MVP. I’d like to see Brooks take that Golden Ball back to Berlin with him, but to do so he’ll have to stifle Higuain, Messi, and eventually probably Kun Aguero. Hard.
Argentina Player to Watch: Google Panama Papers and Barcelona
Wasn’t that fun?
Now here’s a video of Diego Maradona doing batshit things.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0m7RIrMr54o
And here’s a beer commercial featuring Maradona making fun of England.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1-YGwpwkYg
Good times!!!
By the way, the Argentina player to watch is Leo Messi. Dude is phenomenal at everything but paying taxes.
Fabian Johnson has been brilliant in Germany. His versatility has limited the upside for the US.
United States Player to Watch: Fabian Johnson (Borussia Mönchengladbach)
Fabian Johnson, the two-footed winger who started for a Germany youth team that later formed the nucleus of the 2014 World Cup Champion, is the best soccer player America have. This is one of the biggest games the United States have played in its soccer history. To have a chance to win it, Johnson, who has selflessly done everything his manager has asked of him since committing to play for the United States in 2011, will need to have a massive game.
In many ways, one of the larger and most fair criticisms of the Jurgen Klinsmann regime, a critique that does not wither away despite the successes of this Copa América, is that Jurgen Klinsmann has frequently played two of the best three players the US have at their disposal out of position, depriving the Americans of these players absolute best during the primes of their careers. Whether it is Michael Bradley as a ten, trequartista, top of the diamond midfielder or playing three positions at once, like in Brazil- the manager appears to have corrected his error at this tournament.
The same can’t be side for Fabian Johnson, who stars as a winger for Borussia Mönchengladbach, where he put together one of the best calendar years ever for an American player in 2015, scoring in the Champions League and landing on many Bundesliga Best 11 lists.
Klinsmann, of course, has utilized Johnson primarily as a fullback. Most recently, Johnson has slotted in at left back, despite Klinsmann’s early-regime proclamation that “anyone can play left back,” a sentiment that might suggest deploying someone other than the best footballer you have at the position.
The results haven’t been disastrous—Johnson (even more than Bradley) is simply too good a soccer player to ever look bad at left back. But he isn’t a convincing defender, which takes the sting out of the idea that he’s the “best option” at the position for the United States… (see below at 14 seconds)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7FN_aDYzpA
And at fullback, too often his defensive duties remove what he does best, which is fly forward, cut inside onto his brilliant right foot and pressure and stretch opposing defenses. General tactical thinking suggests you play your best wide player farther up the field. Klinsmann, largely because Johnson is so versatile, has not done so with any consistency.
Johnson was absent for long stretches (by design, really) from the US win over Ecuador. Now, with DeAndre Yedlin available and Ale Bedoya out, Johnson may get a chance to move forward against Argentina. Wherever he is, his ability to get forward and keep the Argentine midfield honest in terms of its line of confrontation could have an enormous bearing on who wins the day.
Along with Clint Dempsey, Jermaine Jones tends to be the US player who most enjoys and savors a big stage and moment. With Jones out, and the brilliant career of Dempsey winding down, could a semifinal in the Houston heat be the moment Fabian Johnson steps out of the shadows of soccer-circle respect and onto the tongues of more casual American soccer fans?
The US better hope so.
Prediction: Argentina 2, USA 1. A classic fight, with the world’s best player the difference late.
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Follow them on Twitter @TYAC_Jon and @nwblackmon.