Gut check time for Captain America and the USA.
Andrew Villegas and Neil W. Blackmon
90 minutes for four years. That’s what the United States face Thursday afternoon in Recife.
If it sounds familiar, it should, with mild differences:
2002 – US can advance to knockout stages in Korea/Japan with a win against Poland. The Americans are routed 3-1 in Daejon, only to be bailed out by Korea, who needing but a draw, defeat Portugal. After that– dos a cero becomes a thing when Brian McBride changes the US-Mexico rivalry forever, and the US outplays (who else?) Germany for 90 minutes but Torsten Frings isn’t called for handball and the Americans are sent home, heads held high.
2006- US need a ton of help, but can advance with a win over Ghana. It isn’t to be. A questionable penalty on Oguchi Onyewu moments after Clint Dempsey had equalized assures the US will bow out, last in a “Group of Death.”
2010- Beat Algeria or go home. That simple. Ian Darke explains the rest.
So the U.S. has been here before. 90 minutes to define a World Cup cycle– four years of progress– or even a lack of progress– in international soccer always defined by what happens every fourth summer. Is it fair? No. But as Alexi Lalas reminds us, “Life isn’t fair. Soccer isn’t fair.”
Is what happens in Recife, as definition of where the US program is, as historical adjudication on four years of football, even more important this time around? In a vacuum, of course not. A World Cup is a World Cup and every one matters the same. But life and soccer aren’t played in a vacuum.
The United States has gone stark-raving soccer mad for the past two weeks. World Cup ratings are clobbering the already high 2010 ratings. US-Portugal, on ESPN rather than ABC and not yet in prime-time, drew more “eyeballs” at nearly 25 million than any game in the NBA Finals and any World Series and Stanley Cup game combined. And 25 million is just an estimate, as with most “share” ratings the number was likely much higher. Maybe the United States as a country isn’t yet “soccer mad”, but it’s World Cup mad. And while we’re past the point in this country where the future of the sport rests entirely on the shoulders of the national team (as evidenced by increased MLS attendance across the board)– the longer the US stick around, the better it is for the sport. Especially with so many watching.
The adjudication on Klinsmann’s first term comes in Recife.
Jurgen Klinsmann promised more engaging, attacking soccer. For most of his tenure, this has simply been a promise, with Klinsmann, though from different tactical positions, embracing the defend-first, “possession is defense” soccer. The US held the ball more and often played a higher line (see an early Klinsmann friendly against France in Paris), but the point was really about holding the ball to shore up the defensive breakdowns that haunted the US in cycles and World Cups past. It was as if he took the job having watched Ricardo Clark’s errant pass in the 2010 knockout stage that set up Ghana’s opener on a loop, thinking “How do we stop that, how do I protect my players from that?”
To his credit, Klinsmann hasn’t shied away from admitting that. “We’re not where we want to be but I like where we’re headed,” he told TYAC in Jacksonville before the World Cup. “We can play attractive football. We can attack and pressure and dictate. We’re close,” he said.
Ever the optimist, it was both candid recognition and a tough sell. Candid recognition because the US wasn’t ever likely to dictate a game against any of the teams it was drawn with in Brazil, and the thinking or mainstream media narrative was the US would have to maintain a defensive posture and pick its spots in attack. The tough sell part a combination of we’ve only seen it in glimpses (Mexico for a half in Arizona, albeit vs. a 3-5-2; a wild set of friendlies in Eastern Europe- Russia, Slovenia), and part about omitting the best field player and most creative force the US have ever had, Landon Donovan, from this World Cup roster.
And then Sunday happened.
Twenty seconds were all that stood between U.S. Men’s National Team and an early entry into the knockout round at this year’s World Cup.
Bradley loses the ball.
A close-down by DeMarcus Beasley, tighter marking in the box by Geoff Cameron (on his second gaffe of the night, though the first was by far much worse), a quicker recovery by Kyle Beckerman, positional awareness (haven’t we waited a cycle for that?) from Omar Gonzalez, among other things, and Americans are celebrating making it to the knockout round of the World Cup for the second consecutive tournament.
The final twenty seconds have been scrutinized to death. That MB 90 lost the ball is just part of that sadness– the US’ finest field player this cycle by some distance initiating a fatal sequence with his own error is tragedy by any measure. That folks want Bradley benched shows both the passion and absurdity of the new fans embracing this team. Absurdity because the rest of the cycle happened and because Klinsmann won’t make that decision. That’s a bridge too far. Passion because people cared so much. That the host of other errors- some outlined above- made after Bradley lost the ball have been overlooked by too many (but certainly not all) speaks to this as well.
There’s no time to dwell on that now. A sh0rt recovery period after playing in the “Florida-like” heat of the Amazon in Manaus (It felt like Orlando in June– and by the way, had the same heat index as Orlando Sunday) against the Germans, a day more rested. The second-ranked team in the world who are historically a force at every World Cup. A gut check moment to be sure. But historical moments tend to be gut check moments.
90 minutes for an adjudication on four years.
And with that questions.
Remember, the U.S. doesn’t need necessarily NEED points from their game with Germany — even a mundane 0-0 draw will be enough to see them through to a likely date with Belgium in the Round of 16. But, to avoid leaving their fate to the Ghana-Portugal result, the U.S. would do well to approach the match with intensity. Still, such a move could expose the U.S. to fatigue, which could doom them come their first knockout game.
Thus the age-old question: Park the bus, play defensive football and pray that Philipp Lahm-led Die Mannschaft can’t break you down? Or attack Germany and hope for a result?
Scenarios
First, let’s run it down:
– With win or draw, the U.S. is through to Round of 16.
– With loss, U.S. advances if the number of goals it loses by plus the number of goals Ghana or Portugal wins by is
o Less than 2 for Ghana
o Less than 5 for Portugal
o In these scenarios, in the event of a goal differential tie, the team who scored the most goals in the group stage advances.
Can the US pop the Luftballon?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lGCnM6WXHs&feature=kp
Our usual preview. It goes:
Series: Tenth Meeting. Germany lead, 6-3-0.
This is the thirdmeeting at a World Cup. Jurgen Klinsmann scored to help Germany defeat the chemistry-less US in 1998 in Paris. That was the first.
The most famous? 2002 Quarterfinals.
Torsten Frings. Handball. Soccer isn’t fair, but is there poetic justice somewhere in the warm Recife air?
The US did, of course, win the last meeting, 4-3 to celebrate the Centennial of US Soccer in Washington DC last summer. The US has also defeated the Germans off home soil– a 2-0 win in Mexico at the 1999 Confederations Cup. Brad Friedel captained and played hero that day, with goals from Joe-Max Moore and Ben Olsen. That game was “winner take all”– and the win vaulted the US to the Confed Cup semifinals, where they would lose to Mexico at Azteca in extra time.
The stakes then were high. The stakes Thursday are highest.
Weather: Low 80’s, moderate humidity with a sea breeze. 50 percent chance of rain.
The US have been greeted by rain on arrival at all three cites- it poured in Recife most this morning. Whether the Americans will ever actually play in rain depends on tomorrow. It held off in Natal until about one minute after the final whistle. It waited about two more hours in Manaus. What for tomorrow?
No “Fabian Johnson misery index” for Recife because Johnson played a tremendous match in the Manaus heat. But that begs a larger question- one that doesn’t just apply to Johnson but to all team members- but given Germany’s weaknesses on the flank- bears emphasizing with Johnson: how will he recover on the short rest? The good news? Recife is hot, but it’s “on the coast with a seabreeze” hot. Manageable.
Can Geoff Cameron bring Ghana like execution? Can the whole US, for that matter?
Tactical Overview (Andrew Villegas)
Tactically, the US have had good plans in both matches. We did not see the full plan after the Altidore injury in Natal. The US made execution errors on both goals against Portugal, but otherwise played an attractive brand of soccer– one that made good on Klinsmann’s attacking promise.
If the U.S. decides it wants to park the bus, Joachim Low has a cabinet full of options to run at the U.S. defense, and no one is in better form right now than Thomas Müller, Philip Lahm (thinking is his miserable evening against Ghana, which he blamed on “tactical rigidity”, will result in an inspired run out), Mario Götze … and Miroslav Klose, who can’t even crack Germany’s starting 11 despite being the Germans’ top all-time scorer.
A parked U.S. would like mean Jurgen Klinnsman, himself a former Germany national team coach and player, would favor speed over experience to deal with the Germans’ winged attack.
DeMarcus Beasley had a sound game against Portugal, dealing with an injured Cristiano Ronaldo, but substituting Timothy Chandler, who was about to come on for an injured Beasley before being waved off by Beasley, seems a logical step. Chandler, who is German-American and plays in the Bundesliga, is also far more familiar with the German attacking style than the Mexican-league-based Beasley. The thinking here is he can also defend Mesut Özil, who likes to drift wide and receive the ball before cutting in at the fullback. Chandler would benefit here from playing on his stronger foot.
Moreover, Germany took apart both Portugal’s defense that stifled the U.S. for much of their games. With the Germans, it’s sometimes not a matter of if they’re going to score, it’s “Can you stop them from hanging five goals on you?”
If the U.S. hopes to keep the German boot off their throat, a better performance from Michael Bradley is paramount. Kyle Beckerman has done an admirable job of holding the midfield allowing Jermaine Jones to resurrect his form, but MB90 has looked disjointed, or worse, as The Shin Guardian pointed out before the Portugal match, like a player who didn’t really have a “meaningless foot procedure” a month before the World Cup. He’s due a big game, and holding the ball in the midfield will be at least as important as how the backline plays if the U.S. are to get the result they need to progress.
The U.S. was largely hands-off with Ronaldo; if they hope to frustrate the Germans into mistakes, they’ll have to play more physically with the Germans who will surely bring a tougher play to the Americans.
But if the Americans opt for a more attacking play, to take the game to the Germans, they’ll do so without Jozy Altidore, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury.
In the Portugal game, Dempsey played lone striker, with service coming in Graham Zusi and Alejandro Bedoya from the wings. Dempsey was effective, holding up play well and taking his chances to be in the right spots at the right time. Subbing off Zusi for Omar Gonzalez to waste time backfired on the U.S. in two ways: 1. It added an additional minute to added time, which Portugal used to score the leveler, and it showcased what happens when the U.S. bunkers – this time with three centerbacks – the communication among the backline suffered with the inclusion of Omar Gonzalez, who is used to being the main man in the back at his club, and who, when asked to do something even mildly different, struggles positionally. Why Gonzalez was where he was on the field on the final play, and how he missed Varela tracking back post, is a mystery that won’t be solved.
The Germans are good.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM GERMANY (Andrew Villegas)
Toughness. Aerially and tackling, the Germans are superior. With the ball on the ground, the Germans are superior, their movement off and away from the ball is superior.
It’s hard to find something that Americans are better at than the Germans – we do have Tim Howard, though. Manuel Neuer is probably better. Ok. Nevermind.
Still, expect them to exploit each superiority. They can wait for the game to come to them, but they will likely take it straight to the Americans to secure their place in the Round of 16 early. The U.S. has been bad at the beginning of games, the Germans know it, and will push early.
Klose was immediately effective as a substitute in the Ghana game, so does Low give him the start? The attack is potent, but will the Germans decide to take it easy and aim for a draw?
I think it’s just as likely the Germans decide they are OK with letting the game REALLY come to them – since the draw gets them through and keeps them fresh for a potential late run in the tournament and a potential quarterfinal meeting with France, a potential semi against Brazil.
But there are weaknesses… (Neil W. Blackmon)
At the 2010 World Cup, the Germans impressed with a frenetic counterattack- since, Low has been determined to play proactively, urging his defenders forward, pressing more aggressively and imposing its will on opponents. Results have been good to mixed.
The aforementioned Lahm, sucked away from his usual fullback spot, will remain in Low’s midfield, despite protest. This gives us a deployment looking something like this:
A possible German deployment.
It’s a 4-3-3, designed, presumably, to optimize the fluidity of movement between the front wave of three: Mesut Ozil on the right, Mario Gotze from the left, and Thomas Muller upfront. This was a late shift: remember the US scouted Germany in the build-up to the tournament and every time saw 4-2-3-1– it was at this tournament, to sizzling results against Portugal and mixed reviews against Ghana, that the formation, or at the least, the positional rotation, switch occurred. It is probably fair to say the adjustment is almost all about the absence of Marco Reus, who allows Low to travel with Götze as the false nine, his favored spot, and Özil at the more central #10- his favorite spot. Marco Reus cutting inside from the left and Muller buzzing around from the right rounds out that group. Pure speculation, but thinking here is that although Germany tried a 4-3-3 in a friendly or two- they always had 4-2-3-1 in the back pocket. When Reus went out- rather than insert Podolski or even Schurrle, Low just switched permanently to a 4-3-3.
There are questions at every position- but if you start where Germany are strongest- in front, the questions are least. Before the tournament, one of the more prevalent questions about Jogi Low’s team was who would the combination be upfront. This was curious to me- not that the question was irrelevant, but that for the past two World Cups scoring hasn’t been terribly difficult for the Germans and even without Mario Gomez on this side, the Germans had plenty of attacking options in Miroslav Klose, Lukas Podolski, Andre Schurrle, Gotze, Ozil and Muller. Yes, the fact they only bring one “natural” striker seemed odd, especially with him on the long end of 36 years old– but Podolski has always produced for his country and Thomas Muller is so talented tacticians wrote pieces arguing he’s redefined the “striker” role completely. Oh- and he won the Golden Boot at a World Cup at twenty years old. So Germany would score goals, I thought. And I’ve been right, with six in two matches.
Ozil pulls the springs. We’ll hope the Ghana one shows up.
What makes the group Low has fielded at this tournament so good is their movement– Özil’s we’ve come to expect from Arsenal or Real Madrid– he likes to start, not just drift, wide and he’s adept either incutting or delivering passes, including ones under pressure, from just about anywhere on the field; what has been surprising, to me, is how well Götze was able to play on the left, especially against Portugal, and the interchangeability of the unit– when Götze cuts inside, you can almost count on Müller to drift wide to retain width, which is essential because a) Germany’s fullbacks have provided next to nothing on the overlap at this tournament and b) Müller’s naturally devastating sweeping in through the channels.
If there’s a huge task for the US that bears emphasis– it’s this: track the German movement and help each other. Communicate. Germany’s attack is fluid and thrives off chaos. Handle that– more realistically- limit damage there- and the US will be in business. Because..
With Phillip Lahm, Sami Khedira, and Toni Kroos behind that wave of attackers, Germany have looked less “frenetic” than usual in terms of revving up their counterattack (I know, hard to believe when they’ve scored six goals) and perhaps more, they’ve looked like a team that is again tedious to slow in terms of build-up– something Low was hoping would change the entire World Cup cycle.
Lahm spent most the year playing holding midfield- but had one run out for Germany at the spot prior to the World Cup– a friendly where Germany, without Khedira, were overrun by the Chile midfield and extremely fortunate to win. Khedira is clearly still recovering from a season where he was ravaged by injury. That he was able to come to the World Cup at all was promising for the Germans; they will not win it if he does not improve. Meanwhile, Kroos, a technically beautiful, creative midfielder, is almost “surplus to requirements”– which shouldn’t diminish his danger to the US in terms of a player capable of a moment of brilliance but should suggest that what Germany really need is a fit, physical presence to bruise through the battles in the center of the field, and that is something Kroos is not.
Lahm, for his part, has been shaky for two consecutive games. While we tip him to recover brilliantly, it’s also possible he will not. Lahm notoriously criticized Klinsmann’s “tactics” for his poor form at Bayern Munich when Jurgen was in charge there and has already gone down the “blame tactics” road after the Ghana draw. Against Portugal, he made a horrid pass to Veloso that set up Portugal’s best scoring opportunity when the game was within reach; Lahm repeated the feat against Ghana, firing a stray pass to the right portion of the midfield that resulted in Asamoah Gyan’s goal, a beast of an individual effort past a hopelessly outclassed Howedes and a late-to-pursue Hummels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryhddIsUuqc
It’s no wonder he’s blaming tactics– he seems positionally unaware at the international level as a holder.
To be frank, this makes Low’s decision to play four center halves along the backline in front of Neuer even more mystifying. Boateng’s work on the right down Ronaldo’s frank was outstanding, but you wonder if that’s more about Ronaldo’s injury/disinterest in defending than anything else, particularly after the Ghana match, which saw the Black Stars repeatedly exploit the German flank.
Benedikt Howedes’ isn’t a left back, but he’s being asked to play there– which Ghana took advantage of in full through Christian Atsu and Harrison Afful. Whether it’s Fabian Johnson, who mesmerized against Portugal, or Beasley/Chandler- the US should make it a priority to work that flank and force Hummels into leaving space centrally behind Lahm, trusting that Lahm’s lack of experience as an international holder will mean Lahm sooner or later won’t be aware that the space is there.
It’s telling the German management said there was too much space between the center wave of three and the back at times, and emphasized “closing it” in training. They know the problem is there and will work to adjust it. But the thinking here is that Hummels is more than aware of Howedes’ deficiencies out left and his natural inclination will be to help. That means the US can get chances in the abandoned space if they cut out the right pass.
One possible solution for Low that makes some sense is just to abandon Howedes altogether on the overlap– this eliminates his timidness and fear of getting caught out and means he doesn’t have to play on his weaker foot; but that places a ton of pressure on the ultra-talented, but still just three man, front. And it doesn’t solve the problem that Howedes isn’t really a great, world class defender technically to begin with. The problem on that flank is compounded by Mario Götze’s lack of interest in defending, which doubles down on Hummels’ predicament: when do I help Howedes in the channel, and abandon the center? If that sounds and smells like a recipe for a substitute goal from Aron Johannsson or a Clint Dempsey sneak behind run from an angle- it probably should.
The other weakness, as I see it, is what I mentioned before– that Lahm’s inexperience as a holder and Khedira’s injury mean Germany naturally are less “frenetic.” They have to slow games down because they don’t trust the players to go faster. This can be a massive US advantage, even if the US don’t play as well high-tempo as the Black Stars of Ghana, who dictated tempo throughout Saturday’s rollicking affair. Ghana had plenty of chances to win the game on the counter– and didn’t make the plays. Germany, having scored zero goals on set pieces in qualifying, added a second and Brazil, and stole a point. Can the US pressure enough to speed Germany up and into mistakes? Is that wise given all that is needed is a tie?
Neuer can offset the back four issues.
But even for the weaknesses, the Germans still have Manuel Neuer.
Neuer is probably the best goalkeeper in the world– and if he wasn’t entering the tournament- Iker Casillas’ decision to have a long summer vacation at this tournament means the mantle and torch have probably been passed. Neuer can beat you with athleticism, or he can come out a bit and clean up a mess. This is huge given the backline’s inexperience and flaws.
Neuer’s ability off-the-ball to function somewhat like a libero despite his position has certainly aided this effort. He’ll be asked to do that consistently in Brazil if the Germans are going to end their current run of 18 years without an international trophy– the longest such run in German soccer since World War II.
The Germans are far from perfect: the United States scored four against the German “B” team last July, demonstrating how little depth the side has defensively; and Sweden poured in seven goals in two qualifiers against the “A List” defense- meaning there are vulnerabilities at the back. Sami Khedira’s extended injury has also magnified concerns– he’s a ball-winner and positionally savvy presence in the midfield the Germans have missed– notably in their recent friendly against Chile, where the side was dominated in the center of the pitch.
Fortunately, Neuer is still there to be the lifeline.
Can Johnson put together another great performance against a German side vulnerable on the flanks?
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE YANKS – Andrew Villegas
This is a bit more of a mystery. Klinnsman has, for his tenure with U.S. Soccer, been something of an enigma in his decision-making. He leaves off Landon Donovan for Julian Green, and then doesn’t – so far – give the kid a shot in the first two matches. He often refuses to play two strikers, etc. He didn’t even bring a back up forward to Brazil. But he’s gotten results and done great with what USSF has given him.
For this reason, he’s just as likely to bench Dempsey and start Wondolowski if he thinks it gives him any sort of an edge, even just a mental one, against Germany.
Wondolowski, for whatever reason, didn’t get the nod from Klinnsman for either the Ghana or Portugal game (though he did come on as a late substitute for Dempsey in the Portugal game) though his aerial attack would have benefited the Americans greatly. That benefit is significantly reduced in the Germany game, where the pairing of Per Mertesacker and Mats Hummels can be dominant in the air.
So what can the Americans do to thwart that defense? Slashing runs will certainly be their best bet, and Dempsey is the man to make it. But the midfield service must be better if the U.S. are to break them down. It is paramount then that MB90 runs box to box and that Jermaine Jones overlaps with him to attack. Leaving service from Zusi and the sides to counter any midfield mudding the Germans will slop on.
Expect the Americans to hunker down the first 20 minutes to see how the German team will run at them. After that time, they may venture forward, and, as noted above, attempt to speed the German center up, in search of counter-attacking goals, but bet them to be few and far between; the name of the game Thursday will be defense-first, attack last.
Of course, Klinnsman is a hard man to read, and he could go all out in the first 10 minutes trying to hang one on Germany, but if the Ghana game is any indication, an early goal from the U.S. means playing 10 men behind the ball in their own half for 85 minutes is the likely outcome if an offensive attack succeeds or fails to materialize.
GERMAN PLAYER TO WATCH- Mesut Özil
Mesut Özil has been hot and cold in both matches this World Cup. When he’s on, he’s one of the best players in the World. Germany took apart Portugal with Ozil connecting on 34 of 37 passes in the final third– a staggering percentage– but then slumbered against Ghana for long stretches where Özil appeared off or disconnected. The US will hope for the latter.
Özil’s spotty form for club team Arsenal and his penchant to disappear for long stretches of the game – especially defensively — could let the U.S. into this match. If he doesn’t mark Jermaine Jones or Michael Bradley back into the middle third of the field, the U.S. could find that central midfield linking that has been absent for the first two group games is suddenly available to them.
Fiery and passionate, Jones has had a massive World Cup.
AMERICAN PLAYERS TO WATCH- The German Americans, of course. Including Julian Green.
Even though the answer we’re getting everywhere is Michael Bradley. And this could be the last game at a World Cup for Clint Dempsey. And will be for Tim Howard. And Run DMB. And Jermaine Jones for that matter.
The Germans – Fabian Johnson, Jermaine Jones and potential subs Julian Green, Timothy Chandler and John Anthony Brooks – they’re most familiar with the German way of playing (though a form of it is being implemented and emulated by Klinnsman for the Americans), and play in Germany. Most of these players couldn’t touch the German full squad if they had chosen to represent them at the international level, so they’ll have added incentive to show Joachim Low what he’s missing out on.
How these players do will ultimately be the test of if Klinnsman’s goal – presumably to bring a more European, tough-nosed style of play to the U.S. which has long valued raw athleticism over on-the-ball skill — will take here.
Jones, more than any of these, has to feel immense emotion. He’s been the best player for the United States– and with the possible exception of Muller and Andre Ayew, the “Group of Death” at this World Cup, finally turning the cold shoulders he’s received from many US fans throughout the cycle. A third consecutive massive performance from Jermaine Jones and the USMNT are probably playing soccer in Brazil next week.
John Brooks World Cup start was a dream, both literally and figuratively. He won’t play unless he’s a substitute because Matt Besler’s had an immense World Cup and his positional awareness is a necessity against the Germans fluid front three– but if he does play, can he manage emotion and play smart?
Timothy Chandler looked like he’d steal DaMarcus Beasley’s job in the Send-Off Series, before he didn’t put in the types of performances required to do so. If he’s called upon to give the more senior Beasley a breather after the heat of Manuas, will he be ready? Can he faithfully track Muller and Ozil incutting or sweeping into the channel? Can he provide service on the overlap? Will he play inspired soccer?
Julian Green. If the US need a spark in the 75th minute– does Klinsmann dare roll the dice here? Especially with the best American field player ever at home?
The U.S.’s breakout player this World Cup has been Fabian Johnson. His danger getting into the box and his pace were too much at times for the Portuguese, who had to mark him through the midfield and into the box, freeing others. Despite having neither goal nor assist to his credit thus far, Johnson has looked every bit the player Klinnsman put on the U.S. radar upon arrival. It won’t be long that Johnson, as well as U.S. soccer fans, has to wait for a goal or assist – and hopefully it comes against the Germans.
Prediction: Germany 2, United States 1.
Andrew Villegas is a longtime contributor to the Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter at @ReporterAndrew.
Neil W. Blackmon is co-founder of The Yanks Are Coming. He can be reached at nwblackmon@gmail.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @nwb_usmnt.