The United States meets Ecuador for the first time since Landon Donovan’s farewell in October 2014.
Neil W. Blackmon
As pleasant as the stories were coming out of Bayamón Sunday, where the US defeated Puerto Rico 3-1, the game did not include the entirety of the US roster for next month’s Copa America Centenario.As such, the US win had the feel more of friendly at the end of a transitional and experimental camp than a match designed to get a team ready for the largest men’s tournament held on US soil since the 1994 World Cup. With a full complement of players at their disposal now, the US begin Copa America preparations in earnest tomorrow night at Toyota Park in Frisco, Texas with a friendly against a streaking Ecuador side hoping to make its own statement this summer (7PM, ESPN 2).
With the European club season over save the promotion playoffs and Champions League final, and with MLS and NASL only just past the quarter pole, tomorrow night’s match for many fans will represent the beginning of a wondrous summer of soccer, with dynamic tournaments involving the globe’s best nations playing out on two continents.
As the US begin an important summer- we begin a summer of previews and recaps. We hope you’ll join us at TYAC to soak it all in.
Our customary preview then. First the usuals, then the particulars.
Series: 13th meeting. Ecuador lead, 5-2-5. That said, the US haven’t lost to Los Amarillos this millennium. The series doesn’t lack fascinating historical footnotes, though, at least from the American standpoint. Tim Howard made his USMNT debut against Ecuador, in 2002. He earned a clean sheet in a US win, with Eddie Lewis scoring the winner. Ecuador was Howard’s US hello but Landon Donovan’s US goodbye. Shunned by Jurgen Klinsmann for the 2014 World Cup, the US hastily put together a friendly following Donovan’s retirement announcement. Donovan was given a hero’s send-off, an awkward handshake from Jurgen Klinsmann, and spent most the second half helping lead cheers with the American Outlaws who made the trek to Hartford, Connecticut. The game was secondary, and the result, a draw, seemed fitting.
Weather: It’s Memorial Day in Dallas. Hot. 80s at kick. Probably the hottest venue the Americans will play it unless they get through the quarterfinal or Philadelphia has an oddly hot June after an oddly cool May. Fabian Johnson Misery Index: 9, which includes the groin injury that likely rules him out of this match.
Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia paces Ecuador, as he has for a long while.
What to Watch For From Ecuador:
The Bolivian Gustavo Quinteros took over Los Amarillos in 2015 following Ecuador’s exit from the 2014 World Cup after the group stages. Ecuador are one of two South American nations that have never won the Copa America, but the side should enter the tournament with confidence, as they sit tied above the 2018 CONMEBOL qualifying standings. Of course, Ecuador have looked the part in World Cup qualifying before, finishing 4th and forcing Uruguay to a playoff in 2014, before floundering on the largest stage. And as well as qualifying has gone, Ecuador disappointed at the 2015 Copa America in Chile, conceding six goals and bowing out after the group stages, their lone win coming over Mexico.
Still, this is a quality Ecuadorian side, one brimming with confidence and dynamic attacking talent. Felipe Caicedo, the Real Espanyol striker who has been terrific for Los Amarillos in qualifying, is out of the Copa America with a hamstring injury, but the Quinteros has plenty of formidable attacking pieces regardless, in Antonio and Enner Valencia, Jefferson Montero, Michael Arroyo and Liga MX star Fidel Martinez. Martinez was particularly devastating for Ecuador in 2015, scoring five goals for his country last year.
Ecuador finished 2015 with five consecutive victories, including a mesmerizing 2-0 victory in Buenos Aires over Argentina. They have not won in 2016, but have only played twice, tying Paraguay in a qualifier in Quito and dropping their first 2018 qualifier at Colombia. Still, as good as they’ve looked, any evaluation of Ecuador must include a discussion of how much better they play on home soil. Ecuador’s home-field advantage is staggering, particularly at the Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa in Quito which sits over 9,000 feet above sea level. The Ecuadorians are nearly invincible at altitude, and have not lost at home in two World Cup cycles. On the road, even with outstanding results such as the win at Argentina, the Ecuadorians are very mortal, as a humbling loss to Bolivia in last summer’s Copa America proved. That loss came in Valparaiso, elevation 30 feet. Frisco, on a Texas ridge, is 700 feet or so higher, but a far cry from the mountains of Quito.
Nonetheless, the attacking talent at Gustavo Quinteros’s disposal will challenge the US, still searching for combinations along the back line. In many ways, Ecuador are a testament to the fact that you can play lovely soccer in the most basic formations. Quinteros has stayed with the 4-4-2 of ages past, occasionally shifting to the 4-4-1-1 Reinaldo Rueda utilized in Brazil.
A potential Ecuador deployment Wednesday evening.
In either formation, they can succeed by being direct, though that in this instance usually involves getting the ball from the flanks in, where technical forwards like Fidel Martinez are fully capable of spelling Felipe Caicedo, who himself only earned his shot due to the tragic death of Chucho Benitez. Ecuador also challenge you with physicality and pace, with drifters like Enner Valenica buzzing around the channels and pressuring CB’s who take too long to move the ball or aren’t accurate in distribution (the former a problem for Matt Besler, of late, for the national team, and the latter an ever-pressing issue for John Brooks, creating a rare argument to play Orozco).
Ecuador are highly reliant on attacking from positions of width, and when they are overwhelmed, it is usually by teams that can move the ball quickly through the center. This isn’t a US specialty, by any stretch of the imagination, but it is a blueprint. Ecuador have tough central mids, but no one who wows you. Rostov and former Dynamo Moscow midfielder and World Cup tough guy Christian Noboa is the primary facilitator, whose passing and defense were steady in Brazil is in this team– but he’s nothing more than a ball mover, and if Enner Valencia isn’t in the mood to go deep to receive the ball, Ecuador finds themselves disconnected. Noboa’s midfield partner is anyone’s best guess. Michael Arroyo fo América is a more attacking player, but offers little in the way of defense for a team that already fields Enner Valencia; the very young FC Dallas man Carlos Gruezo, went from uncapped to on the World Cup team, starting against Switzerland in a blink– would seem a possibilty, but he was back on the bench for the Honduras match and doesn’t add a great deal in attack.
Up top, should the ball spend a great amount of time there, Ecuador have more answers. Enner Valencia was up and down for West Ham all year but he is consistently marvelous for Ecuador. He was sensational in two of Ecuador’s World Cup matches, and even without Caicedo at the top– he should be able to work with Fidel Martinez or Miller Bolaños, a strong man forward who plays at Gremio in Brazil. Bolaños isn’t Chucho Benitez, but he is technical and fast, and was sensational in the side’s win over Mexico at the Copa America last summer. In truth, this is a great test for Yedlin and the “anyone” Jurgen Klinsmann decides to field at left back– because Valencia will float all over the field behind the tip-of-the-spear– can the American fullbacks play help defense and not get lost in the channels?
Defensively, Ecuador were stingier and younger last World Cup cycle. This group continues to be marshaled by Walter Ayovi, who is 36 now but still starting most every game for country. His left foot still works divinely over a set piece. Frickson Erazo is a set piece monster with Mineiro, who scored against Argentina last autumn. He’s the best player the side have in the air in the absence of Caicedo. Gabriel Achilier is the incumbent at right CB, and plays his soccer domestically in Ecuador. Longtime fullback Juan Carlos Paredes, who starred in Ecuador’s win over Honduras at the 2014 World Cup, is the right back, and is a capable two way player.
Is Jurgen Klinsmann under any pressure to succeed this summer? If no, do the players feel motivated? These and other questions persist.
What To Watch For From the Yanks:
A game that I think matters more for intangible reasons than tactical ones. We become so immersed in who the best target forward is that we forget or lose sight of the fact that international soccer is an emotional game played in extraordinarily small sample sizes. Confidence matters. Can the US get off to a positive start?
After the heartbreak at the Rose Bowl last autumn, a listless draw in Port of Spain and the Guatemala scare, it is fair to ask where the United States are mentally. History instructs that the Americans are splendid underdogs, that they often achieve the most when the least is expected. Confidence can’t be high, given past results. But are the Americans better than current projections, which suggest that the tournament would be a success if the Yanks simply weather the group stage? That expectations are that low seems a signifier, a statement about the uncertainty surrounding the program. One would expect the US to take the next step forward in a tournament on home soil, regardless of the elite nations present.
For his part, Jurgen Klinsmann seems to think expectations should be higher.
“We have to learn how to get in a tournament really to the next level. And the next level is, and at Copa América now, is to win your quarterfinal,” he told U.S. Soccer’s website. “Win your quarterfinal against whoever that will be in order to make the final four. This is our goal, so we want to be in that tournament very long. We want to play six games in this tournament, and we believe that this roster is very, very hungry, very determined and very aggressive going into these games.”
Yet whether they will even reach the quarterfinal seems a subject bathed in doubt. Will they play with the patented American chip on their shoulder? Tomorrow is as good a night as any to begin the process of finding out.
This isn’t to say the Americans don’t have tactical and personnel questions to begin to answer. Jurgen Klinsmann would have liked to have had more time to select a 23 man roster, but the tournament’s early June start date afforded him one less camp and week than is common for a tournament of this magnitude. More time may have afforded him a chance to look at a Jordan Morris longer, rather than leaving him at home. Or perhaps he would have entered an international tournament with a player who is by trade a left back, rather than hoping a Bundesliga best 11 winger can play the spot out of position with a lingering groin injury.
Guessing Klinsmann 11’s these days is glorified Yahtzee. (NOTE: Cameron can’t play tonight. Birnbaum likely to start).
Other questions persist. Who is the starting pairing at CB? Will Klinsmann give John Brooks, a mountain of a man and talent, the chance to win the job in two friendlies? Or will he show preference to continuity and go with Matt Besler and Geoff Cameron, the duo he said “was far ahead of others” last November?
Is Bobby Wood ready to become the forward America has been searching for, having now played without Jozy Altidore in two of the last three international tournaments it has entered (and sent him home due to fitness issues in the other)?
How much does Jermaine Jones have in the tank? Is Kellyn Acosta, a midfielder, really here to play left back or was it just geographically convenient given Timothy Chandler just arrived in camp and came with a knock?
Michael Bradley, deployed far from his natural position as either a six or a classic regista, ran more than anyone else at the World Cup in Brazil. Then he ran more than anyone else at the 2015 Gold Cup. Will Jurgen Klinsmann finally get his deployment right? Bradley has been sensational this year in Toronto. Can he finally have the tournament American fans have believed he had in him since he burst onto the scene in 2008?
Jurgen Klinsmann has a deep team, one that is on paper more talented than any US team ever, save the 2002 World Cup squad. And that comparison isn’t a rout. Klinsmann has several players who have been in outstanding form. He has a dynamic young player in Christian Pulisic who will be tough for opponents to scout due to his youth and the limited amount of film they have. He has a highly technical midfielder that isn’t named Michael Bradley in Darlington Nagbe. The pieces are there. Can Klinsmann and his staff put them in positions to succeed? The US are at home. This is a tournament the US can use as a springboard to revitalize a program that appears to be stuck in the mud. Will the US take advantage? And what happens to Jurgen Klinsmann if they don’t? If the answer to that question is nothing, and there is no internal pressure to succeed, is that something that contributes to the malaise?
Answers start rolling in tomorrow. Until then, I think Tom Petty’s first band, Mudcrutch, said it best when they asked simply for…
Ecuador Player to Watch: Jefferson Montero, Swansea City
Once upon a time, the Ecuadorian was the toast of Wales, a player compared to the legendary Sir Stanley Matthews and the man to lead the Swans to the highest levels of the Premier League. Mercurial but strong on his feet, Montero dazzled for a Swans side that began the year as one of the Premier League’s most enjoyable sides, only to become dire and dull as the weather turned colder. Montero fell out of favor, and didn’t find his way into manager Francisco Guidolin’s good graces until late in the season. Now, questions persist about whether he will be out this summer, or, if he is retained, where he”ll fit into a side that has Mo Barrow and for now, Andre Ayew already stationed on the edges.
There is no question what the Ecuadorian can do off the dribble, taking on defenders and firing a shot with either foot.
What is always in question is his work rate and his interest in defending, an important consideration for a team with an aging defense and only a serviceable goalkeeper. Further, because Antonio Valencia and Enner Valencia get so many touches, Montero’s ability to stay interested and make the most of his chances is a big concern for Gustavo Quinteros.
Both Ecuador and Montero have much to gain from a good Montero showing in the Copa America. Montero can cement his status in the Swansea fold come August. Ecuador can find a player to punish opponents with if defenses cheat towards the Valencias in the absence of Felipe Caicedo. The US will do well not to forget the Swansea City man Wednesday, for these reasons.
US Player to Watch: John Brooks, Hertha Berlin
Most of this is above, or in my roster analysis. For those unfamiliar: this is a massive tournament for John Brooks. The biggest international tournament of his life- and yes, he was a hero against Ghana. After his best year yet for club, Brooks must show consistency on the international level. His country needs him to play as he has for club, with a commitment that begins to match his prodigious talent. Matt Besler is the consummate professional, a tremendous positional defender and one of the best interviews in MLS (google his Shooter McGavin bit) and at present, Jurgen Klinsmann’s best option to pair with Geoff Cameron, who is the best American defender alive at present. Cameron and Brooks have the makings of a talented and physically capable CB pairing for a good World Cup team. But Brooks has to win that job. He has to clean up the distribution errors that lead to great opponent chances, which we saw again in Puerto Rico Sunday. He has to be better in the air, where he surprisingly average given his size and strength. And he must be more aware and quick to react defensively. And that process really needs to start tomorrow.
Prediction: USA 2, Ecuador 1. Call me a hopeless romantic, or a sucker for a good story. Or just call me skeptical of Ecuador against a side with quality away from Quito.
Neil W. Blackmon co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.