Jon Levy
This feels like a USA/Canada match with real stakes.
Should manager Gregg Berhalter be fired if the team loses? Probably so. But is his job actually on the line? Read on for our exclusive and candid interview with Earnie Stewart! What’s that? Oh, we didn’t get an exclusive or candid interview with Earnie? Right. But yeah, this week he sure didn’t sound like a guy who’s about to fire his first national team manager.
Last month’s loss to Canada gives this match a very different feel, and win or lose, we’re probably in for a lot more real rivalry in what previously was a “rivalry” in name only.
As of now Canada is in “the Hex,” and the US is looking for a statement win in this CONCACAF Nations League matchup.
The TYAC Preview then, usuals then particulars:
Series: 35th meeting. USA lead, 14-9-11. Canada has never defeated the United States on American soil.
Weather: Upper 60s, light rain. It will be gloomy and cool and temperatures will drop relatively dramatically from kickoff to close of game, with as much as a 10 degree drop in temperature possible during the game. This is basically what happens when you play a soccer game just as an Arctic blast finds its way to Disney World a couple days late.
What to expect from Canada:
Canada will play the same system with the same attacking principles that have led to a relatively fantastic record since John Herdman took over last January. The only time they’ve really abandoned Herdman’s core philosophy was in the first half of the Gold Cup match against Mexico, and after rededicating to the system they’d been running, Canada scored in the second half and looked threatening throughout. In other words, don’t expect a visit to Orlando to put Herdman’s team unnaturally on the defensive from the outset.
But while you won’t get a bold prediction about new tactics from this “breakdown,” you will get a reductive explanation of Canada’s newfound(land?) defensive solidity. This team has played three competitive matches since Herdman heeded his Gold Cup wake-up call about maybe not starting forwards and midfielders as fullbacks. They haven’t given up a goal. Granted two of those matches were against Cuba, as I mentioned when addressing this storyline in my last USA/Canada preview. But then I saw Richie Laryea make Christian Pulisic cry, so now I’m going in, as “the kids” may or may not still say.
As Canada’s John Herdman has grown more comfortable with his personnel defensively, he’s become more committed to open and attacking tactics.
John Herdman’s discovery of flank defenders, and their potential uses, is tantamount to Rocky Balboa adding one key skill in camp in most Rocky movies. That key skill then directly leads to a victory, or at least a positive showing. That’s how narrative threads work. The first example that springs to mind comes from Rocky III, in which Apollo Creed teaches Rocky how to move around the ring, and by the time we get to the main event Clubber Lang has no chance. Clone this “training camp skill” plot device, and drop it into pretty much all the other sequels. Rocky learns to block. Rocky focuses on throwing power shots. Rocky learns to fight right-handed. Is it far-fetched to think that a championship level professional boxer can focus on one core competency in camp and have success on fight night? Definitely; it’s a movie. Is that exactly what’s happened to the Canadian Men’s National Team since John Herdman started playing actual defenders in the fullback positions? Yes. And here’s the kicker. He’s generally been playing a central defender at left back for these matches. How good are these guys going to be when he gets two real fullbacks on the field? The USMNT may not want to witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational battle station.
My last thought on this subject is a question.
Is there one change akin to Herdman’s fullback revelation that could have a similarly profound effect on the USMNT?
What to Watch from the United States:
Gregg Berhalter blamed a lack of urgency and intensity for the Toronto debacle last month, so let’s give GGG the benefit of the doubt and start there, shall we?
The US need to play with fire, especially given they’ll be plodding along (quite literally, in all likelihood) without their attacking, in blistering form talisman, Christian Pulisic. This isn’t a US 11 that’s going to light anything up in attack, and the US will need to stay compact, keep their shape and take the few chances they get. If that sounds like an old-school US formula for victory, it should. That’s where we are.
The good news?
The last time the US played a “must win” type game in Orlando, the place roared like a SEC football stadium, the US snagged an early goal and absolutely rolled.
The bad news?
The main reason they did that was Christian Pulisic, Jozy Altidore, Paul Arriola, Michael Bradley and Bobby Wood were patient, picked apart the Panamanian lines and finished clinically. Only one of those guys will be with the Americans in Orlando tomorrow night.
Where can the US generate danger?
I’m still confident in the left flank, which should play Dest and Arriola on the overlap with Weston McKennie stacked in that side in midfield. That would leave the US setup like this:
Projected US starting 11.
Yeah, yeah, I want to see Sargent over Zardes too. But at TYAC, we like to keep it 100, so you get Gyasi and you’ll love the game-winning assist off his collarbone.
American Player To Watch: Alfredo Morales, Defensive Midfielder (Fortuna Dusseldorf)
Sometimes there’s a man…
It’s been quite some time since I’ve had cause to give an American player the Big Lebowski treatment, but in this case, amazingly, Alfredo Morales qualifies. Oh, and if you didn’t get the reference, or haven’t seen the movie, go ahead and watch the clip above. No spoilers; it’s a clip from the first minutes of the movie (though it has been speculated that perhaps Epstein didn’t kill himself).
If I haven’t lost you with the paragraph above, you may be asking yourself why we’re in “cometh the hour, cometh the man” mode, and why “the man” in question is somehow seldom selected defensive midfielder Alfredo Morales.
Well, this has everything to do with the complete no-show from Gregg’s three-man central midfield versus Canada last month. Canada’s midfielders and fullbacks effortlessly got the ball up to the attacking players all match in Toronto, and that can’t happen again. This is also a great opportunity for me to remind readers that the attacking players are the strength of Canada’s team, and finding them in space in the attacking third is supposed to be the hard part. It certainly was not challenging when Bradley and Roldan (to a lesser extent) were tasked with shielding the defenders. So it’s time to set a bulldog or three upon the greyhounds, or terriers, or whatever breed makes this analogy work.
Alfredo Morales is that bulldog, and his resurgence at club level is both interesting, and potentially useful to the USMNT. And it’s totally fair to question whether his Fortuna Dusseldorf renaissance would have even moved the needle for Gregg and his scouts had Manchester City not loaned America’s number one Zack Steffen to the Bundesliga team. What we’ve watched play out through the first half of this season is the Germerican soccer equivalent of Pavel Datsyuk’s scouting/recruitment by the Detroit Red Wings. The team’s top European scout set out to watch eventual NHL blue line staple Dmitri Kalinin, but found the kid with the silky mitts instead.
Alfredo Morales is just like Datsyuk (no), but instead of scoring beautiful goals, he’ll slide tackle you into your grave (yes). For more proof that 1990’s Red Wings/soccer comparisons have always been “my brand,” click here.
So here we are. The US needs steel in the midfield, and Alfredo Morales, more than any other guy on this roster fits the bill.
Morales was never that hot a national team prospect, even in his youth, but the work he’s putting in at club level in the Bundesliga right now shouldn’t be overlooked. I’m glad he’s on the roster, and he should get the chance to start in this match. But a couple words of warning are in order. First off, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Morales ejected from this match, and early. He’s an all-effort guy, and he’s combative. That’s what the doctor ordered for this match, but if the rest of the midfield isn’t as committed as he is, we could wind up with him chasing Davies, David, or Hoilett as they barrel towards the American goal; that’s a recipe for a rash challenge and a red card. My second caution is simply about managing expectations: Morales is in good form, but his skill-set doesn’t exactly make him the poster boy for American midfielders in Europe. Don’t let any zealots on social media convince you otherwise. Don’t think “Weston McKennie, but older.” Think, “what if Ozzie Alonso played for Dusseldorf?”
Scott Arfield helped orchestrate the Canadian win in Toronto last month. He’ll pose problems again Friday.
Canadian Player To Watch: Scott Arfield, Midfielder (Rangers… the Glasgow kind)
Scott Arfield is not one of Canada’s electrifying attacking players.
But writing another “player to watch” section about Jonathan David, Alphonso Davies, or even Lucas Cavallini seems a bit redundant. So the Canadian captain, who’s a surprisingly good fit with the aforementioned forwards, comes into focus.
After growing up in Scotland, and representing that national team at a couple different age levels, Arfield took the hint that he wasn’t getting into the big squad a few years ago and made the switch to Canada (I guess his father was born in Toronto, I dunno, Wikipedia).
Now Arfield captains a team that I’d probably pick to beat Scotland on a neutral field. Not a bad last couple years of work for English John Herdman and Scott(ish) Arfield.
So how does Arfield fit into Herdman’s offensive system?
I’ll tell you the positions he’s played, but that won’t tell the story. Usually Arfield’s deployed centrally as an attacking midfielder, but Herdman’s been known to play him in one of the wing forward spots too, as he did to start the match against the US last month. Sounds like Christian Pulisic for the US, right? Thankfully, the answer to that question is “not at all,” but that doesn’t quite get the US defense out of the woods here.
Scott Arfield is essentially the Scottish Canadian Kevin Nolan. For those of you not familiar with the former Sam Allardyce stalwart, in his playing days Kevin Nolan was a dependable and uninspiring English attacking midfielder who plodded along dutifully in the Premier League for roughly one hundred years. Arfield, like Nolan, is not a threat to dribble past pretty much anyone. But both men made careers of being able to pick out teammates when given some time and space, and finding a way to be in the right place at the right time to score ugly goals. Surround either guy with a few more exciting talents, and you’ve got a recipe for goals and assists, whether you’re enchanted by his game or not.
That’s probably what we’re in for in this match. Y’know, unless Morales goads him into throwing a punch or something. Here’s hoping! (Also, they might be able to just mark him and be okay, but that definitely wasn’t happening in the last match between these teams.)
Prediction: USA 1-0 Canada
Gregg’s guys squeak out an ugly win that we’ll all be complaining about over the weekend. But that’s better than another loss, unless you’re rooting for the “employment decision” that probably isn’t coming either way. I’m not sure how the Yanks keep Canada off the board in this one, but I expect the term “last ditch” to be used a lot in match recaps.
Jon Levy co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @TYAC_Jon.