Featured, January 2022, USMNT

US open massive window with El Salvador: TYAC analysis of the week ahead

Gregg Berhalter has the US well-positioned to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. This week may define that push.

By Sanjay Sujanthakumar

The USMNT faces El Salvador tonight in Columbus (7 PM ET kickoff on ESPN2) in the first battle of a triple-match window that could effectively (there’s a highly improbable scenario in which the US mathematically qualify this week) propel the Americans to a place in Qatar. 

“We’re in a good position, and by the end of this window we could be in a great position,” Christian Pulisic said Wednesday. 

Indeed, this window was circled on the calendar the moment the schedule was released as the only one in which the USMNT could capitalize on two home games while avoiding a trip to Mexico/Central America/the Caribbean. The US faces Canada in Hamilton, Ontario on Sunday (3 PM ET) and then Honduras Wednesday (7 PM ET) in St. Paul, Minnesota. El Salvador and Honduras are second-to-last and bottom of the table with 6 and 3 points, respectively. Apart from Gio Reyna and the banished John Brooks, the entire USMNT core is healthy and primed to – if not officially – almost clinch a berth in Qatar. Should the US stumble and require a result in Mexico and/or Costa Rica in March… let’s not. 

6 points at home is a must, and although Berhalter and his troops insist they’re sole focus is La Selecta on Wednesday, 7 or 9 points in the next week is definitely realistic. 

The USMNT are not concerned about how the weather could impact their performance. Much has been made of how it could interfere with the Americans’ talent advantage – especially following the decision to play in Minnesota, which along with Ohio was a reaction to Canada choosing Hamilton – but it’s looking like the worst case weather scenario will be avoided. Columbus and St. Paul can serve their purpose.  

“This is an opportunity for us to gain an advantage on our opponents. They’re all coming from the equator, and it’s gonna be really difficult for them to deal with these conditions. They’re gonna take a couple of breaths in and it’s gonna hit them like they’ve never been hit before,” said head coach Gregg Berhalter. 

Here are my quick thoughts on the roster, the omissions, lineup predictions, and developments with the player pool.  

THE ROSTER

–  Zack Steffen is still in England dealing with back problems and while Berhalter described it as day-to-day and didn’t rule out Steffen joining the team, there’s an increasing chance Matt Turner gets the nod for all three games in goal… and is bought by Arsenal very soon. Like Steffen, Turner would be backing up a clear No. 1 keeper in Aaron Ramsdale. In terms of the national team, Steffen will likely remain the presumptive starter and Turner has nothing to lose by making the move. His incredible story deserves this next chapter in London.  

“You hear some transfer rumors going around and you think that would distract a player, and Matt’s the opposite. He’s able to tune that out and really focus on the task at hand, the game tomorrow,” Berhalter said Wednesday.  

–  Gabriel Slonina is also suddenly the subject of Premier League transfer rumors. After he tasted the senior team environment for the first time in the December camp and stuck around in January, Slonina’s continued inclusion makes complete sense. He’s eligible to represent Poland, yet he’s the future and Berhalter wisely isn’t letting him out of sight. Perhaps the EU passport is catalyzing the links to big clubs abroad, but there’s no shortage of excitement about Slonina domestically and Berhalter has praised the 17 year-old. The Chicago Fire keeper is suddenly a logical third string option for Qatar. 

 

– I’m not too bothered about the fact that Antonee Robinson is the only left-footed left back. Between him and – if necessary – Sergiño Dest, that side is fine. If Berhalter doesn’t totally trust Sam Vines and George Bello, that’s understandable. If Brooks Lennon impressed him enough over several weeks of camp to leave off Vines and Bello, so be it (more on Joe Scally in the omissions section). Lennon’s selection is why the fullback department feels so imbalanced, but I have no reservations about Dest on the left, and expect Robinson to start all three matches. 

– In the middle, Weston McKennie is shining for Juventus. “He’s probably in the form of his life, playing at a really, really high level,” Berhalter said, also noting the good form of Tyler Adams and Yunus Musah.

Musah scored the first goal – and his first league goal for Valencia since December 2020 – in a 3-2 loss at Atletico Madrid on Saturday. Valencia just sold center mid Daniel Wass and Musah is finally becoming a regular at center mid, starting four in a row before he headed to Ohio. 

The ceiling for MMA is getting scary.

“From the first time we just met each other off the field, all of our personalities just gelled well together,” Tyler Adams told TYAC this week.

“I always find that people that you get along with well off the field, you always find a certain type of chemistry on the field. When I look at the types of players that we are, we’re all very different players in a certain sense. Weston is a very box-to-box midfielder, Yunus a little bit more but he can do a lot of things in the attacking half of the field as well, and I’m just a bit more defensive-minded in midfield. So when you look at the qualities of each of us, I really think it does balance each other out very well.”  

– Gianluca Busio is out with Covid and it appears Luca de la Torre was his replacement. LDLT belongs in the squad regardless, more on Berhalter’s talent evaluation in the omissions section. 

– No surprises at forward. Gio Reyna won’t be match fit until right after the international break (shocker). Tim Weah missed seven weeks with a thigh injury yet made his return as a sub last Wednesday then started and went 67 minutes for Lille on Saturday. That’s a massive boost following his fantastic November window, and he’s ready to pick up where he left off. 

“Timmy looks great. He’s worked extremely hard getting back. With the return to play protocols, he wouldn’t even be back available to be a substitute unless he was 100% ready to go. And then to start him, it shows that they were comfortable with the loads that he’s been achieving and his fitness because they wouldn’t risk re-injuring him. So Tim’s at a great point, and we’ll look forward to seeing what he can do this window for us,” Berhalter said.  

It’ll be interesting to see whether Gyasi Zardes or Jesús Ferreira gets the remainder of Ricardo Pepi’s minutes at the 9 (and perhaps one start). Both are Berhalter favorites yet very different players and the opponent may dictate who gets on the field. Given the glut of winger – and Gio Reyna eventually being back in the fold – I’d love to test Weah at the 9.

John Brooks, who has put together 3 solid games since returning from the winter break, is by far the most mystifying exclusion.

OMISSIONS 

The most obvious omission – again – is John Brooks. Berhalter said “there’s absolutely nothing beyond form with John” but I’m not buying that. When TYAC talked to Brooks before the roster release, the big man felt he had done enough to warrant inclusion and was looking forward to being with the national team. It’s worth reiterating that Brooks was named to the October roster then withdrew due to injury, so the retrospective criticism of his September showings doesn’t justify his exclusion.

 Brooks’s club form has certainly fluctuated this season but it’s steadied recently, and his distribution alone merits a starting spot if his weaknesses are mitigated by the defenders to either side of him and the 6. That’s especially true against bunkered opponents, which could be the case in the next week. 

The point is that he’s almost certainly out for non-soccer reasons to be revealed down the road. Berhalter has cracked the door open to Brooks’ return, but if he’s not called up in March or June, that’s when we can consider it closed. 

While Brooks’s situation is complicated, dropping Joe Scally – as well as the idea that LDLT wouldn’t have made the cut if Busio was available while Cristian Roldan and Sebastian Lletget retain their spots – is frustrating because of the bigger picture. Gregg Berhalter was not hired to just qualify for the World Cup. He was hired to, in his words, change the way the world views American soccer. It’s tough to set expectations for a World Cup prior to the draw, but I think a fair metric for Berhalter’s mission – based on the preexisting “get out of the group and see what happens” mindset – is to reach the quarterfinals with a proactive brand of football. And I’ll go a step further: to, in Berhalter’s words, “shock the world” in 2026, the bar sounds like the semifinals (I’d sign up for Germany’s 2006 run at home right now, no matter how gutting it ends). The 2022 experience will be a major step for what may be the youngest squad in the world towards realizing the 2026 American Dream. A deep run in November/December probably requires a) John Brooks b) high quality depth. It’s hard to believe, but this team could and should be younger. 

In my book, there are at least five players – Brooks, Scally, James Sands, Paxton Pomykal, and Tanner Tessmann – who add value to this squad if chosen over retreads (Berhalter rates Kevin Paredes and the Wolfsburg-bound left back/wingback/winger should also be integrated soon). With just three camps after this one – and March will likely continue to be must-win mode – we’re running out of time to have enough fair auditions. 

Discussing Antonee Robinson’s resilience since he was dropped for the 2019 Gold Cup, Berhalter said, “I say all the time just because you don’t make one roster, it doesn’t determine your status with the team indefinitely. Everything changes based on your form, based on what you’re doing for your club, based on how you perform with us. Antonee is a guy who clawed his way back into it and is the clear starter at left back.” 

Berhalter later compared Walker Zimmerman’s emergence with the MNT to Robinson’s. 

“Walker is a player that – like Antonee Robinson – may not have been involved every step of the way. There might’ve been some disappointments along the way but all he did is keep playing, keep performing, and when he got his opportunity, he took advantage of that. That’s what you want as national team coach. Because it’s a selection, you want guys that when you pick them are gonna perform and do their very best.”

But the difference now is that we’re ten months from Qatar. 

That Zimmerman actually wasn’t supposed to be in the squad at all in October (he replaced an in-form Tim Ream), that Paul Arriola was supposed to start over Tim Weah vs Costa Rica before getting injured in the warmup, that Berhalter is not in a rush to introduce competition at center mid beyond Busio… I’m not suggesting there’s no positive examples of Berhalter’s talent evaluation (and can’t ignore how his dual-national recruitment has been A+) yet the starting XI is pretty close to picking itself. However, injuries/Covid – where the middle of the park is the most concerning – could significantly dampen this team’s potential. Pomykal is the backup the big-engines MMA midfield needs (Nico Estevez was instrumental in recruiting Musah and if the new FCD coach can deliver Pomykal to the World Cup roster, I’ll personally build a statue of him). If Sands and Tessmann were still in MLS and part of the January camp, it seems like they’d have a better shot of proving they’re undoubtedly upgrades over the depth incumbents at the 6 and 8, respectively. Hopefully LDLT is the next one to fortuitously break through.

PREDICTED LINEUPS

TYAC 11 for USMNT vs. El Salvador

– In terms of squad rotation, Berhalter stressed he wasn’t thinking beyond Thursday.

“We’re not getting ahead of ourselves. We’re not planning out a rotation right now. I’m sure the lineups will be different game to game, but our focus right now is on the game tomorrow.”

He had hinted rotation might not be too heavy.

“I’m not sure you can’t play all three games. If you think about this, our travel is minimized – we have a 50 minute flight up into Canada, then another two hour flight to Minnesota,” Berhalter said. “It’s no different than a player performing for his club three games in a week. So I’m not ruling out a guy being able to play three games in a week.” 

I’d bet on Antonee Robinson starting three in a row, and if the US takes a safe lead tonight and subs accordingly, the same could be true for MMA and Pepi. Chris Richards is coming from Hoffenheim in a rhythm and he’s poised to start two out of the three and stake his claim as a first choice starter. 

Berhalter views winger as a “platoon type of position where we can use guys for high intensity as long as they can go, and then put guys in.” Jordan Morris will get a decent dose of minutes off the bench. 

– Berhalter is expecting El Salvador to stay true to their identity under USMNT legend Hugo Perez.

“We know it’s an opponent that’s gonna be aggressive, they’re gonna be pressing really high, and we gotta move the ball quickly. They were the best pressing team in the first eight games in terms of amount of presses, so it’s an aggressive team and we gotta be prepared.” If La Selecta stick to their philosophy in possession and this is an open game, the US could explode and end it by early in the second half. 

TYAC’s projected USMNT 11 at Canada.

– Canada will be without Alphonso Davies and probably Stephen Eustaquio. Those are huge losses that limit their tactical flexibility, and the Canadians will be coming from San Pedro Sula. After Sunday they only have one more home qualifier, so a point would be precious. I think Panama will stumble this window and I’d be satisfied with a draw in Hamilton, a convincing victory in St. Paul and 7 points in this window. 

The USMNT close with Honduras at home, and it’s the one game where the US will need to rely expressly on their depth, as Matt Doyle rightly notes above. A big question? How they use Pulisic in games one and two. 

Projected USMNT 11 vs. Honduras.

The Chelsea man has had his ups and downs against Los Catrachos in the past, as Honduras are the type of stick their tackles, rough and rumble central American side that has bothered Pulisic in his CONCACAF career. But if Berhalter elects to keep Pulisic fresh, this could be a start for him against a tired Honduras side that has weathered a great amount of travel in this window. A big opportunity for the US playmaker may await. 

Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a longtime contributor to The Yanks Are Coming. He coached soccer at the University of Southern California. Follow him on Twitter https://twitter.com/tha_Real_Kumar. 

Written by: Sanjay Sujanthakumar on January 27, 2022.
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