Yanks end memorable 2014 today in Dublin.
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon
Another lead squandered. That’s the resounding memory the United States will take with them after Friday’s 2-1 defeat to Colombia at Craven Cottage. Since defeating Nigeria in Jacksonville to end the “Send Off Series” in June, the US have done an excellent job of securing leads, having done so in all but two matches (Germany and Belgium at the World Cup). They’ve done an atrocious job protecting them, having lost the lead in all but one match.
Match Venue Lead Squander Lead? Final
Ghana Natal, Brazil, World Cup 1-0 Yes Win, 2-1
Portugal Manaus, Brazil, World Cup 2-1 Yes Draw, 2-2
Czech Republic Prague, friendly 1-0 No Win, 1-0
Ecuador Hartford, CT, friendly 1-0 Yes Draw, 1-1
Honduras Boca Raton, FL, friendly 1-0 Yes Draw, 1-1
Colombia London, friendly 1-0 Yes Lost, 2-1
The silver lining? The Yanks hadn’t lost a match where they’d blown a lead until Friday against Colombia. That’s fortunate. Nonetheless, the team’s inability to protect a lead is certainly a trend the United States will look to reverse in 2015, and they’ll hope to begin reversing it today in Dublin against a fairly good Ireland squad. Chalk that up as goal “A” and “B” in this friendly.
Beyond that, there’s the intangible “let’s finish 2014 with a win” factor. The Americans that will close 2014 look very little like the team that started it and don’t look much like the team that weathered one of Brazil’s “Groups of Death” this past summer. But it has been a memorable year for US Soccer, from advancing to the knockout rounds in consecutive World Cups for the first time in the modern era to the retirement of the finest field player the federation has ever produced, and it would certainly be fitting if the US could cap a year full of history with a win in a picaresque setting.
Here’s the “usual” TYAC preview. It goes:
Series: 9th meeting. Ireland lead 4-2-2. The Irish won the last meeting as well, a 2-1 win at Landsdowne Road in Dublin in 2002. This is only the third meeting between the two nations this century.
Weather: Clear, 50 degrees at kick. Very little chance of rain, which is odd. Glorious weather– much warmer than most places back home. In fact, this is probably one of the best times to visit Dublin- it costs less to get there and the weather is still mild. Here’s the NYT “36 Hours in Dublin” piece that conveniently ran this week.
Can the US handle success?
Jon Levy on What to Watch for From The Yanks:
Here’s how this is going to work. I’ll lay out the USMNT post World Cup 2014 formula, and you’re going to watch for any variations from that narrative in the match on Tuesday.
Formula: The Yanks start hot, possessing the ball, creating scoring chances of some variety, and generally dealing comfortably with the other team’s attack. Somewhere in that positive period the US scores a goal and everything’s looking quite encouraging. Now it’s time to brace for the gradual suck. And “gradual” is the operative word here. The USMNT hasn’t been going from dominant to “just barely hanging on” in the split second that it takes to score a goal. Rather, these matches have started to go bad for the Yanks in much the same way that relationships and TV shows often deteriorate. You’re happy and you’re happy and you’re happy, until you realize you’re not, and that you haven’t been for a while. And once the players (and fans) realize the script has well and truly flipped, there’s no going back. It’s defend for your lives until that inevitable goal comes. Against Colombia that inevitability was actually two goals, and against the Czech Republic Brad Guzan played the last living character in a Final Destination movie, cheating death at every turn and altering the course of history (read: the match) in the process.
So as you can see, this new trend is kind of a Bizarro version of Bob Bradley’s World Cup 2010 formula for the Yanks. We’ve replaced “disastrous start then regroup” with “play well, take a lead, then brace for the buzzer beater.” That said, I’m not too terribly concerned with what some might view as the big takeaways from the current script.
Jurgen isn’t a master tactician, but his in-game adjustments in style, formation, and players have been good in general. At this point we have a large enough sample size to realize that Klinsmann isn’t some rube who gets outfoxed by every opposing manager. And I don’t point to some large scale gap in player conditioning either. These guys aren’t letting the game slip away from them simply because they’re gassed. The problem isn’t physical, it’s mental.
This team simply cannot handle success. And we can’t just pin that on the semi-experimental squads Jurgen has been selecting either. We saw the same thing in the World Cup in the Ghana and Portugal matches. There’s a natural human tendency to breathe a sigh of relief upon distancing oneself from an opponent, whether you’re running a race, comparing sales numbers, or playing a soccer match. But the key is to breathe that sigh of relief, and then get back to doing the things that made you successful with the same hunger. We saw that practice out of the Florida’s “Big Three” college football teams in the 1990’s. Whether it was “The U,” Steve Spurrier’s Gators, or Bobby Bowden’s Seminole’s, these guys were never content to go up by seven. There was a tenacious drive to score thirty more points and finish off the opposition. And we’ve seen that out of JK’s version of this national team. Predatory instincts were on display in a thrashing of Scotland in Jacksonville, and in several matches in the 2013 CONCACAF Gold Cup. And you can be damn sure our excitable former world-class goal scorer turned Germanager wants those extra goals to put matches away; he’s on the sideline urging the team to break with lethal purpose whenever they get the ball. But sadly, when the game gets wrested from them, this team’s natural tendency is to turn turtle and hold on for dear life. It’s like watching Ohio State football play down to most every opponent under Jim Tressel in the 2000’s. Yeah, maybe you’ll win all those close games, but I’d rather ride with the guys that are saving their lucky bounces for big matches. Klinsmann is more Spurrier/Bowden than he is Tressel; now he’s got to imbue this squad with that mentality.
Roy Keane has gone stark raving mad.
Neil W. Blackmon on What to Watch For From Ireland:
One of two teams. Will it be a careful group, licking its wounds after a bloody, grim display of soccer led to a 1-0 defeat at Celtic Park in a critical EURO Qualifier with Scotland last week? Or will it be a carefree team that is happy to not be in Glasgow (forgivable, really) and eager to show the fans at home the Scotland match was more about opponent and rivalry than an indict on their own quality?
Whichever unit shows up, there is talent on this Irish team, even after the release of Robbie Keane back to the LA Galaxy for the MLS Conference finals. The challenge for manager Martin O’Neill and his chief lieutenant Roy Keane is determining how to deploy that talent optimally in order to qualify for the 2016 Euros. With the expanded field, Ireland have very little excuse to miss out.
Keane and O’Neill doubtlessly understand this, and it seems is fthe duo are feeling a bit of the pressure as a result. It’s different managing an Irish team hoping to qualify and one expected to, and Keane’s recent outbursts against Everton manager Roberto Martinez highlight that difference. The Martinez-Keane feud highlights two things: first, of course, Darron Gibson, Seamus Coleman and James McCarthy are three class players that are essential to Irish Euro hopes. But the more lucid point for American fans: Jurgen Klinsmann isn’t the only national team coach consistently feuding with clubs. And Don Garber, judging by Everton chairman Bill Kenwright’s reaction to Keane’s criticisms, isn’t the only high-level figure who is calling a national team coach out.
As for what Ireland look like on the field: the roster is stacked with Premier League players, although without Robbie Keane, there’s not a terribly formidable goal scorer (sorry Shane Long fans.) Martin O’Neill knows this too, and so in European qualifying has set up his team very cautiously, with defensive organization paramount. There is a lone striker, usually Robbie Keane, almost certainly Shane Long today, and a three-man group behind him, typically Aiden McGeady of Everton centrally behind the forward with Wigan’s James McClean and Stoke City’s Jonathan Walters on the flanks.
McGeady is the best crosser of the lot, and there’s creativity in him at times, but he’s prone to anonymous segments and commits the silly foul too often for both O’Neill and Roberto Martinez’s liking. Johnathan Walters was the best player for Ireland against Scotland by some measure, combining well with Shane Long up top and threatening the Tartan goal mouth on multiple occasions. This is a combination the Americans will need to account for– Walters is particularly good at taking defenders 1 v 1, whether it be on his inside foot or on the blow by. He’s skilled enough to do both. Looked good drifting into the channels against Scotland as well.
Behind that group of four there’s a bit more uncertainty, but only because of James McCarthy’s injury withdrawal. Traditionally, Everton’s Darron Gibson sits back as a classic six; McCarthy’s absence means his role is expanded for the time being and O’Neill must tab Hull City’s Stephen Quinn or Derby County’s steady distributor Jeff Hendrick in a starting role. Hendrick got the starting nod against Scotland Friday, and was miserable, so the bet here is Quinn gets the nod and his teammate at Hull City, Robbie Brady, gets an extended look as well.
Defensively, the center halves aren’t sexy but they have options and no-nonsense defenders who are terrific in the air. John O’Shea remains the captain, and he can pair with either Richard Keogh or Ciarán Clark, the Aston Villa youngster. Keogh has started EURO campaigns promisingly, and will make choices tougher on Martin O’Neill when O’Shea’s typical CB mate, Marc Wilson, returns from injury.
Seamus Coleman continues to search for his best spot for country..
And Ireland’s best player? If you guessed no-nonsense left back Stephen Ward, you are absolutely wrong.
It’s Seamus Coleman, the Everton right back of course. Yes, he’s still getting himself right after a long injury spell with Everton. Yes, he’s the reason (mostly) that Roy Keane has declared all-out war against the media (Full transcript here). And yes, there are questions (fair, in the author’s view) about whether Coleman, coming off his best club season, should even play right back for the Irish. Is it the position where he can have the most influence?
American fans will recognize this issue when they think about DeAndre Yedlin, who Jurgen is himself figuring out what to do with internationally. In many respects, it’s a shame Yedlin is back in Seattle, as an on-site study of Coleman would do the American youngster some good.
Coleman is a better dribbler than Yedlin and is devastating cutting in on his left foot. He’s a menacing attacker from the fullback spot who is smart on the overlap, partly because he’s so good on the dribble but also because he plays without fear: if he isn’t dirty at the end of the match, he’s had a poor game. He is also stronger than Yedlin, which allows him to bully his way through tackles a bit more. His speed means he is often adrift– but like an NFL safety cheating a coverage, his recovery speed means he’s rarely goes so far walkabout that he doesn’t ultimately defend from a position of relative strength.
The question, which Ireland again saw against Scotland this past week, is whether he can influence the game at right back for country. Preoccupied tracking Anya in that match, he was of less influence than the Irish needed. To his coaches credit, he was given auditions at defensive mdifield and on the right wing last summer, and at the latter position he torched Jordi Alba of Spain. But Martin O’Neill seems content to play his club teammate McGeady on that flank for Ireland, despite Coleman being a better “final ball” player and easily faster. This may be a situation where it is more about what is behind Coleman for country at right back than what spot he’s most useful at. Hard to say, but it wouldn’t surprise if the man Roberto Martinez calls “one of the best fullbacks in the world” slots at right wing at some point in today’s match.
Prediction: United States 1, Ireland 1. Another Mix Diskerued goal, another early lead. Th Americans end a memorable year with another lead lost, however, and another draw. An exciting and interesting Camp Cupcake awaits on the other side.
Jon Levy and Neil W. Blackmon co-founded The Yanks Are Coming. Follow us on Twitter at @yanksarecoming.