The US head into World Cup qualifying next month after a spectacular summer that saw them win both the CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup.
Sanjay Sujanthakumar
The Ocho. The Octagon. Whatever you want to call CONCACAF’s final round of World Cup qualifying, it’s around the corner.
Ultimately the pandemic delayed it a full year, allowing the USMNT player pool to impressively improve and deepen. The American men have soared to 10th in the recent FIFA rankings following CONCACAF Nations League and Gold Cup titles this summer, and that is eroding any caution attached to the optimism about the program. But CONCACAF World Cup qualifying is not a straightforward affair, and a compressed calendar featuring windows of 3 matches per week (except in November) will tax and test this young team. The good news? The US look ready.
Here’s my predicted 28-man roster, analysis of that and the path to Qatar, and a concluding, big picture thought about Gregg Berhalter.
GK (3): Matt Turner, Zack Steffen, Ethan Horvath
This is clearly the top three, but the most interesting storyline heading into camp: what’s the order for Berhalter? His former keeper in Columbus, Steffen, is the incumbent, but Horvath was the hero in the Nations League triumph vs Mexico, and then Matt Turner validated all of the hype surrounding his shot-stopping by not allowing a goal from open play for the entire Gold Cup (and also won a final vs Mexico).
Turner is probably the best one and the sensible bet because unlike the other two, he’s playing every week. The argument that Steffen is substantially superior with his feet seems increasingly based on the idea of Steffen spending a disproportionate amount of time sharpening that part of his game in Pep Guardiola’s training sessions rather than his actual performance.
genuinely puzzled by anyone who thinks turner's feet should keep him off the field. what existing advantages are we losing out on, exactly? https://t.co/xhkX3Pv1wn pic.twitter.com/wwJpuIU1Am
— ol velasquez (@away_goals) July 30, 2021
Despite his occasional sketchiness (even top keepers aren’t totally immune to that) I have confidence in Steffen. I just have more in Turner, and if/when he parlays his European passport into a deserved move abroad, the whole fanbase will feel the same way about GK.
Horvath is the wild card long-term. My guess is we’ll see rotation with Turner and Steffen this window, and we’ll go from there.
Sam Vines transfer may make his September playing time a question, but it will be tough to deny him a roster spot for qualifying.
DEF (10): Sergiño Dest, Reggie Cannon, DeAndre Yedlin, Miles Robinson, Walker Zimmerman, John Brooks, Tim Ream, James Sands, Sam Vines, Antonee Robinson
At left back, George Bello was such a pleasant surprise vs Mexico holding his own vs Tecatito Corona and I love his upside. It’s a toss-up between him and Sam Vines, who started for Royal Antwerp this week but struggled.
At right back, Shaq Moore had a solid Gold Cup but I’m not sure it was enough to pass Cannon on the depth chart and DeAndre Yedlin’s qualifying experience can’t be ignored.
It’s marvelous how Bello (19) held his own in a final vs Mexico, Joe Scally (18, more on him below) held his own in a Bundesliga match vs Bayern, and how Che (17) was improving with every outing for FCD before an injury. Scally and Che may project as better center backs long-term (they could be ideal outside center backs in a back three) but at the moment they’re the latest poster boys of the American fullback factory.
At CB, John Brooks is one of the best players in the pool. He’s a given. Meanwhile, James Sands is undroppable. Unfortunately he was forced to play CB in a back 4 – which he’s hardly done so far as a pro – for the knockout rounds of the Gold Cup after Walker Zimmerman hurt his hamstring vs Canada and was ruled out for the rest of the tournament. But as Sands displayed in the group stage – particularly when bossing the first half vs Canada in a hybrid role – he can be the key piece in the middle of a back 3 / the third 6 behind Tyler Adams and Kellyn Acosta.
Tim Ream is still around because he’s starting for Fulham. Mark McKenzie didn’t start the last couple of games for Genk and their next one isn’t until after the roster is expected to be released, while it’s a race against time for Richards to rejoin Hoffenheim and show he’s fit and sharp enough for the Ocho. He’s a lock for the roster – and perhaps the XI – if he’s on the pitch every week. But after returning from injury Sunday for a 30 minute cameo, Zimmerman went 90 Wednesday night for Nashville, and I have him and Ream penciled in at the expense of Richards and McKenzie.
MID (6): Tyler Adams, Kellyn Acosta, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah / Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Lletget, Eryk Williamson
As the backup to Adams in addition to an option at the 8 and a last resort at fullback, Acosta is also undroppable. Williamson’s quality is not in doubt, and if he’s trusted with more minutes he could leapfrog Lletget. Roldan is riding the generous post-winning wave of positivity and grinders have value in World Cup qualifying. There’s certainly better midfielders in the pipeline but Roldan will be in camp if Musah’s not fit, and he might sneak in anyway.
FWD (9): Christian Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson, Matthew Hoppe, Josh Sargent, Ricardo Pepi, Jordan Siebatcheu, Gio Reyna, Tim Weah, Paul Arriola / Konrad de la Fuente
This group pretty much picks itself. Siebatcheu is in-form and Hoppe is basically undroppable.
Great tidbit in here about Matthew Hoppe: He accounted for a USMNT-best 1.79 expected goals in the Gold Cup, and created a team-high 8 chances (via InStat).
— Charles Boehm (@cboehm) August 3, 2021
I suspect he's earned a spot on the first WCQ roster in Sept. Now we wait to see if he moves clubs between now and then. https://t.co/ClcxEhWQN4
The danger he created (as a winger) and the swagger with which he did it launched him into the conversation to be the No.1 striker sooner rather than later, assuming he’s a 9 at his next club.
Josh Sargent was not a center forward in his debut for Norwich and if that continues, there’s no sheen to this Premier League move but instead, creeping trepidation about the consequences for his development prior to Qatar. The awaited liberation from Werder Bremen is relieving but another relegation scrap where his position may be too cute was not what we envisioned (worth noting that even if Norwich do go down it likely won’t be as malnourishing for Josh as Bremen ball). The stability- and increasingly prolific goal rate- Gyasi Zardes brings will be missed assuming he’s out, and that could open the door for Ricardo Pepi (more on him below).
I’ve listed Gio Reyna as a midfielder on a projected 2022 World Cup roster before, and with Dortmund now deploying him deeper while our winger depth only balloons, it’s a logical transition to commence in this camp or the next. We can’t dream of contending for a World Cup without a truly world-class center midfielder (every country that wins it all has at least one) and Gio has the tools to be just that.
Konrad de la Fuente – who has been sizzling so far with his new club Marseille – has only been in one senior team camp. I’m keeping a lid at 28 but if Berhalter decides to carry any more / Paul Arriola isn’t available (he came off with an injury last night), Konrad could make the cut. Konrad’s been electric, but a reminder that form in France or anywhere in Europe doesn’t translate seamlessly to San Salvador and San Pedro Sula. Arriola is a huge part of the US culture in the locker room and Berhalter trusts him– which is usually a good pathway to qualifying caps.
NEW FACES?
If there’s one or two spots to introduce totally fresh faces, Joe Scally and Ricardo Pepi headline that category. Scally’s Bundesliga debut at left back vs none other than Bayern Munich was very encouraging. A bunch of kids can get minutes early in the season with European clubs but for a club like BMG to trust him in the opener vs. a club that has won the league 9 years in a row… there’s maybe two other fullbacks in the pool who would find themselves with that opportunity. Scally also looks like the fullback in the pool most capable of lining up on either side. He’s noticeably clean in receiving and passing with his weaker foot, which is a significant advantage over someone like Vines.
Once Ramy Bensabeini is fit he’ll start at left back, but leaving Scally in his routine and rhythm in Germany does serve a purpose if it sets him up for minutes after the international break (right back Stefan Lainer may need to catch his breath after Austria duty).
Scally apparently hasn’t heard from Berhalter yet so he almost certainly won’t be in this camp. The more established at club level dual-nationals on the fringes of the roster like fellow right backs Che and Julian Araujo have, understandably, gotten more attention.
Pepi is the present poster boy of the Mexican-American dual-national panic – David Ochoa was the first domino to fall and the fear is that Araujo is next – and initially I had thought if he was called up it would only be a camp taste test as a fourth striker. With no Zardes, it’s a less predatory cap-tie if he’s willing to commit. Daryl Dike struggled at the Gold Cup and needs to get healthy ahead of an anticipated loan / sale to Europe.
SEPTEMBER LINEUPS
EL SALVADOR
Prospective USA- El Salvador starting 11 for the Yanks.
CANADA
A prospective USA-Canada starting 11 for the Yanks.
HONDURAS
Prospective USA-Honduras starting 11 for the Yanks.
The above is just a guess at the three lineups we could see vs El Salvador, Canada, and Honduras.
There are a few variables to account for and weight when mixing and matching names. I discussed club situations / minutes, and another factor would be preserving any partnerships that have already been attempted. There’s an abundance of permutations and rotation and heavy subbing is inevitable as Berhalter aims to balance quality, cohesion, and keeping gas in the tank from game to game (if McKennie and Reyna do start each game they’re not going 90 more than twice). It would also seem likely Pulisic sits in one of these games– opening the door for Arriola or Aaronson. Honduras is a decent bet there given the history of Los Catrachos fouling Pulisic so aggressively.
The Canada lineup is wishful thinking but how entertaining could that be…
Weston edges out Pulisic, Tyler Adams and John Brooks for the “MVP” designation as the Ocho begins.
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: WESTON MCKENNIE
The conventional choice here would be John Brooks or Tyler Adams(or even Pulisic) but the emergence of Miles Robinson, Kellyn Acosta and James Sands during the Gold Cup shifted my focus to slightly higher up the spine. McKennie will log a lot of minutes, he’ll be counted on to constantly battle and influence games, and if he brings order to the middle there shouldn’t be much turbulence between September and March. For club (whether it’s Juventus or elsewhere) and country this is a pivotal year to prove he’s a consistent, reliable center mid now that
X FACTOR:
Speaking of Robinson, he can play CB in a back 2 or three on the left or right side and his athleticism, lockdown 1 v 1 defending and polished distribution makes him compatible with not just John Brooks, but anyone. Considering the aforementioned uncertainty with the other CBs ahead of this specific camp, Robinson’s stellar Gold Cup has essentially sealed a potentially major role in the months to come. And like fellow Massachusetts native and college soccer product Geoff Cameron, Miles is a CB poised for a relatively late European move.
THE SCHEDULE:
The momentum of the program under Berhalter is undeniably positive yet let us not forget that there have only been two away games vs CONCACAF teams played in the region. Both were in the fall of 2019: a 2-0 loss to Canada in the Nations League – the low point of the Berhalter era – and a win vs Cuba that actually took place in the Cayman Islands. Berhalter noted how physical Canada were that night in Toronto, but BMO Field – a home to an MLS team – in October isn’t the traditional CONCACAF away environment challenge that is characterized by sweltering heat, hostile fans in and out of the stadium, suboptimal pitches, terrible lighting and bizarre officiating.
The most difficult opponent in the region remains Mexico, but the US avoid Estadio Azteca as well as the always daunting trip to Costa Rica until the last window in March 2022 (hopefully we’ve punched our ticket by then). We also avoid any trips to Central America or the Caribbean during the winter window – it’s two home matches and Canada away – which will be easier on the European contingent coming from colder climates that comprises most of the squad.
However, we can’t look beyond 2021. A strong start is essential, as the US learned the hard way in the previous cycle. The first window (highly recommend this Scuffed primer pod on the September foes ft. CONCACAF expert Jon Arnold), especially the first two games, could be tricky. Both Hugo Perez’s El Salvador and Canada (without Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, among others) valiantly pushed Mexico in the Gold Cup, and Canada’s ascent to arguably the third best team in the region has not gone unnoticed.
The magic formula in qualifying has been to win at home and steal results on the road. Ideally – without being too greedy – I’d take a point in El Salvador, 3 vs Canada and 3 more in Honduras. In October – home vs Jamaica (this one screams trap game), at Panama, home vs Costa Rica – the maximum 9 points is doable. With 14-16 points entering the showdown vs Mexico in Cincinnati, regardless of the result there, 4 points from a visit to Jamaica and hosting El Salvador… I’d say 18-20 points from the 8 fall qualifiers isn’t an unreasonable target given the talent at Berhalter’s disposal and the fact that the historically unforgiving fixtures aren’t until March.
My mind isn’t wandering into the two 2022 windows yet. Having said that, 2026 has a mentally gravitational pull, and here’s my view on Berhalter’s status as the boss…
Once upon a time the New York Red Bulls were facing the Columbus Crew – I don’t remember exactly when, but it was definitely B.C. (Before Couva) – and Taylor Twellman floated the idea on air that one of the young managers on the sideline could eventually lead the USMNT. Fast forward past the failure to qualify for the World Cup, and in 2018 the hiring of Berhalter appeared increasingly inevitable. I believed that – not because his brother was the USSF chief commercial officer and a candidate to be its next CEO, which was the cynical take – but because of the process of elimination. Oscar Pareja was reportedly interviewed, but I always expected the choice to be someone who had a history with the USMNT as well as MLS (which makes sense). The profile of the future coach that Earnie Stewart sketched publicly a few months ahead of the Berhalter announcement confirmed that assumption was fair. And the US, for better or – mostly- for worse- wasn’t going to put its pride aside and go ask Bob Bradley to come back- at least not unless there was another qualifying emergency.
Marsch, who only had a couple of MNT caps as a player and was later an assistant under Bradley, embarked on his European adventure unlocked by Red Bull in the summer of 2018. At the end of 2019, his work with RB Salzburg on the biggest stage in club soccer was earning praise from Jurgen Klopp.
The first American coach with Champions League experience guiding the first American squad replete with that same pedigree at a World Cup on American soil… indeed, after two seasons in Salzburg burnished Marsch’s reputation, that was very much The Sound of Music to American ears. That possibility has been relentlessly raised in interviews with Marsch and he admitted in October it’s probably an irresistible opportunity.
To be clear, Marsch is genuinely backing the incumbent. He said, “Right now, I’m supportive of what Gregg Berhalter is doing and what U.S. Soccer is trying to do.” But Marsch didn’t need to jostle for the job to cast a shadow over it. In terms of style the fit seems natural, never mind his now gilded resume.
“I think my idea of football fits our player pool incredibly well. For me it would be a really interesting, fun project to take our young, athletic talent and try to teach it to how to do things the way that we think, that I think, and see how good we could make them, and how much we could – the part about the intensity, the aggressiveness, the confidence, the mentality – I would love to work with a lot of these young talented players and put a US team on the field that really went after games and went after the best opponents,” Marsch said.
Berhalter’s stated objective from Day 1 has been to disorganize opponents with the ball, but without the ball, I’ll copy and paste what I wrote at the end of 2020: effectively pressing would be the beautiful evolution of the USMNT’s identity, built on strengths of spirit, speed and athleticism. If Berhalter can successfully transition the USMNT defensively from never-say-die to let’s (occasionally) kill anyone in their own half – balancing that with disorganizing the opponent with the ball – that could quiet those clamoring for Jesse Marsch next cycle.
The most remarkable moments for me from the Gold Cup final were when we – with arguably a C team – made Mexico extremely uncomfortable pressing high. Sure, we weren’t dictating and the Gold Cup and Nations League final were full of familiar “bend but don’t break” defending (the latter even included an “adaptive shape” with the A team). And of course, we regained our “tough to play against” DNA through those gritty victories. But seeing Sebastian Lletget pounce straight onto a loose touch from Edson Álvarez then in Zone 14 poke it past an outstretched Héctor Moreno to Paul Arriola for the best chance of the night… and watching the US front three funnel the ball to an isolated Carlos Salcedo so Paul Arriola could bump him off the ball from the blindside for another recovery on the doorstep of the Mexican box, which would’ve resulted in a Matthew Hoppe banger if not for the headed block by Nestor Araujo… it was easy to admire how this unit competed – there was enduring and suffering yet audacity sprinkled in that can be built on – well before Miles Robinson’s extra time winner.
When I told my Dutch friend / Director of Coaching at my local club in 2015 that I’d like to see the national team attempt to press more often, he dismissively replied that our players weren’t good enough. Since then, the floor of the pool has obviously risen, but who was betting on an almost entirely MLS-based squad to put Mexico’s varsity side in those five-alarm-fire situations? There were flashes in the friendly vs Switzerland in May, but on that night in Vegas?
Berhalter promised a possession-based approach that the player pool – boasting an unprecedented blend of quality, youth and depth – is closer than ever to being able to deliver. He should be held to the high standard that he himself has set, and this upcoming sixteen-month stretch will determine if he meets it. He’s learned and adjusted, although now there’s less margin to do so and with regard to evaluating personnel, the scenic route is over.
But after beating Tata Martino (who reportedly wanted the US job) in back-to-back finals, rewiring his side defensively and evidently – in Berhalter-speak – creating an environment that players want to be in, it’s awfully tough to take that for granted and discredit Berhalter by comparing him to the perceived alternatives. His comments looking forward to 2026 don’t feel so premature.
The real test for Marsch is just beginning in Leipzig and I’m confident his rise will continue (which could render this whole frame pointless should the timing not be right for him to take a detour from club football). He’s more than an exceptional motivator, communicator and constructor of culture; his teams are energetic but with the ball don’t have to be stereotypically direct. In fact, possession and short passing were the hallmarks of his very first, fantastic RBNY side in 2015, even if it wasn’t necessarily by design but a byproduct of their quality (especially in the middle).
I’ve had doubts about Berhalter and a lot can happen between now and 2023. But it’s becoming nearly impossible to get roster selections wrong, and the bottom line is that he’s a very likeable figure and diligent dual-national recruiter checking the boxes that make it harder to wonder what could have been with Marsch, Tata or whoever as he and this team grow.
Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a longtime contributor to The Yanks Are Coming. He coaches soccer at the University of Southern California. Follow him on Twitter at https://twitter.com/tha_Real_Kumar.