John Halloran
The coach has chosen the final roster, the send-off games are finished, and the next time anyone sees the United States women’s national team play a game will be on June 11 when the squad kicks off their 2019 World Cup campaign in Reims, France.
The U.S. enters the tournament on a nine-match unbeaten run—their last defeat coming to World Cup host France in January—and will be looking to add a fourth star to their previous championships in 1991, 1999, and 2015.
DECISIONS FOR JILL ELLIS
Change for the U.S. women has always come slowly and this cycle has proven to be no exception. Despite trying out 58 different players since she started to rework the roster after the disappointment of the 2016 Olympics, head coach Jill Ellis selected a veteran-heavy roster for this summer’s tournament.
Ellis has also used the past three years to slowly find answers to the vast majority of her tactical and roster questions.
In the summer of 2017, the team settled into its current 4-3-3 and Julie Ertz became a mainstay at the No. 6 position. More experimentation led to Crystal Dunn locking down the starting job at left back last summer, and Ellis handed Rose Lavelle the keys to the offense as the team’s No. 10 during last fall’s World Cup qualifying tournament.
There was indecision about who would start alongside stalwart Becky Sauerbrunn at center back, though that lengthy debate largely resolved itself when Tierna Davidson broke her leg last fall and Abby Dahlkemper seized the position for good. Every other spot in the team’s starting XI has been settled for at least a year and a half.
If anyone’s play were to force Ellis to rethink her decision-making this late in the process, it would be that of Sam Mewis. The dynamic center midfielder has scored three times in the Americans’ last three matches and earned two starts in the place of Lindsey Horan as the latter recovers from a minor hip injury.
Most coaches would not engage in such a last-minute tinker or adjustment, but Ellis has gained a reputation for doing just that during her five-year tenure with the Americans. If Horan can’t get back to 100% in the next two weeks, Mewis just might be able to sneak her way into the lineup.
SUBSTITUTION PATTERNS
Most would agree that the U.S. enters this summer’s tournament with the deepest roster in the world. Add to that the Americans’ placement in a weak group and Ellis has some real options to keep her team healthy and fresh for the knockout rounds.
One option would be to rotate a few starters each game and try to keep everyone around 180 minutes of total playing time. However, that would potentially disrupt the rhythm of the first XI and seems likely to prove counterproductive to the U.S.’ ability to hit full stride in the Round of 16.
A second option, and one Ellis used during World Cup qualifying, is to rotate the entire starting lineup in the second group-stage game against Chile. With a 23-player roster, it’s fairly easy to completely flip all 11 starters and give the first-team a number of extra days rest heading into the third group-stage match against Sweden.
There is, of course, the risk that the second-team blunders against Chile and drops points, but that seems fairly unlikely considering the wealth of talent on the U.S. roster.
Another complicating factor with the American sub rotation is that the U.S.’ draw has left the team with its only real group-stage test in its final match, coming against Sweden. Both teams will have likely already qualified for the knockout round before they even meet, meaning the last group-stage game will probably be a meaningless 90-minute affair.
To play all-out against Sweden would also be akin to adding another round to the knockout stage, one that already looks difficult. The U.S.’ Round of 16 opponent will likely be Spain, Canada, or the Netherlands. Then, the Americans will probably face France or Germany in the quarterfinals.
There is, however, another rotation strategy—a hybrid of the first two discussed—that would allow the U.S. to keep its first-choice lineup intact through its first and third matches and keep the total number of minutes fairly low for its most important players.
In this system, Carli Lloyd, Christen Press, Mewis, and Ali Krieger would all rotate in with the first-team lineup to help limit the starters’ minutes in the group stage.
No player, other than the center backs, would play more than 180 minutes (the total of two full-length games) in the rotation theorized above, leaving each player fresh and ready to go in the knockout rounds.
WORRIES
Despite the Americans’ No. 1 world ranking, there are a number of hurdles they will have to clear to defend their title.
The first is preventing a repeat of the problems that led to the team’s quarterfinal exit in the 2016 Olympic Games. In the decisive quarterfinal match, the U.S. struggled to break down a bunkering Swedish side and failed to effectively defend the Swedes’ counterattack. Ellis has spent most of the past three years attempting to rectify those problems.
The team’s switch into a 4-3-3 put Julie Ertz in as the No. 6 was designed to help solidify the backline and provide the center backs with more direct cover. It also gave Tobin Heath and Megan Rapinoe the freedom to create havoc on the wings high up the field with Rose Lavelle providing the role of the lock picker in the midfield. In this setup, the U.S. has done what it can to be ready to breakdown a bunker in France.
However, defending counterattacks remains an immense vulnerability and the team is still overly reliant on Becky Sauerbrunn to cover all manner of ills in the back. In games they’ve been forced to play without her, the defense routinely ends up disorganized and even with her, they can be beat for pace. If Sauerbrunn isn’t in top form, or sustains an injury, the U.S. could be in real trouble.
Ellis also left herself some weaknesses with her roster selection, as there is no natural backup at left back or the No. 6 position and the backup right back hasn’t played a match against a challenging international opponent in over two years.
When asked about her depth at left back after selecting the roster, Ellis named O’Hara—the starting right back—and Heath—the starting right winger. At best, naming a starter at one position as depth at another position is fanciful. At worst, it could leave the U.S. unprepared should injury problems arise.
This potential problem is even more striking when looking at Ellis’s decision to select seven forwards for three starting spots up front, but only seven defenders for four starting spots in the back. That choice leaves the defense one short of like-for-like switches at each position—most notably outside back—and Casey Short sitting at home should Dunn or O’Hara be unavailable. This was one reason TYAC’s projected World Cup roster left one additional forward at home in favor of an extra defender, a decision Ellis surprisingly bucked. The coach did decide at the last minute to bring along Ali Krieger, a good choice for depth at the position, but Krieger’s last international game against a top side was in March 2017.
Ertz is in a similar position without a true backup and, alongside Sauerbrunn, is probably the U.S.’ most indispensable player. An injury last fall to McCall Zerboni of the North Carolina Courage appeared to kill her chance of making the roster and in her place, the U.S. will need to hope Allie Long or Morgan Brian—neither of whom are natural No. 6’s—can get the job done should Ertz go down.
Ertz also appears to be Ellis’ first choice as a backup center back which means the midfielder could be dragooned into service on the backline, creating the exact same problem and hole at the defensive midfield position as if she were injured.
The final question mark for the U.S. heading into the tournament comes at goalkeeper. Alyssa Naeher became Ellis’ first-choice netminder shortly after the 2016 Olympics and the ostracizing of former keeper Hope Solo.
The U.S. is good enough to win the tournament without a superhuman performance from Naeher, but will struggle to overcome a major mistake against a top side should she make one. And through her three years as the U.S.’ No. 1, she has made some notable gaffes.
Part of that is the curse of the position—where everyone notices every mistake—but Naeher has also seemed to struggle with her confidence at the international level in a way not seen in her club play. How she deals with the pressure of starting in a World Cup is also a major unknown.
WILD CARDS
In addition to Mewis, the two Americans most likely to make a surprise impact at the World Cup are Press and Lloyd.
Press is one of the most technically gifted footballers in the world, but has found herself on the outside of Ellis’ 4-3-3 because she isn’t a natural winger and doesn’t fit the physical prototype Ellis wants in the No. 9 position.
However, Press has looked exceptionally hungry in 2019 for both club and country and could make a major impact for the team coming off the bench in a tight game. She has the ability to take defenders on the dribble, turn any defender—and do so in traffic—and provide high-quality finishes in front of net.
Press also tends to play better for the U.S. as a substitute. When starting, she seems deferential, passing when she should shoot and playing a less aggressive style. However, when coming on as a sub, Press seems to consciously or unconsciously know that she’s being put on to be a difference-maker and takes control of the match.
The other X-factor for the United States this summer could easily be Lloyd. In the past few months, Lloyd has looked fantastic as the team’s backup No. 9 and, in recent games, even outperformed starter Alex Morgan.
The two-time FIFA Player of the Year also tends to do her best work when underrated. In the 2012 Olympics, an injury to Shannon Boxx forced Lloyd into a deeper role where she had a less noticeable impact on games. As a result, many criticized her play. When Boxx finally returned in time for the gold medal match, Lloyd was finally allowed to play higher up the field again and scored the game-winning goal.
In the 2015 World Cup, Lloyd was criticized for her lack of offensive output, scoring only one goal in the run of play through the U.S.’ first six matches. Then, of course, she scored a hat trick in a 16-minute span in the final.
Since then, Lloyd has continued to face criticism: for the team’s performance in the 2016 Olympics, for not fitting the mold of a modern midfielder, for being too old, or for taking a roster spot away from someone else.
And once again, Lloyd is beginning to prove the doubters wrong, scoring five goals in the team’s last four games. The player once described by TYAC’s Neil Blackmon as “already a maelstrom of intensity without kerosene”—looks well poised to make everyone eat their words once again and be an impact player for the Americans in a major tournament one more time.
John Halloran has been a longtime contributor to The Yanks Are Coming. A decorated and championship winning women’s soccer coach, Halloran’s writing has appeared at American Soccer Now, The Equalizer, Bleacher Report, Four Four Two and a host of other publications. In our view, he’s one of the most important voices in American soccer today. Follow him on Twitter @JohnDHalloran.