Featured, March 2021, USMNT

Olympic Qualifying Begins Vital Year for the USMNT

Yunus Musah’s decision to choose the US over other suitors hints at the larger momentum in the US program as the American men enter a vital 2021.

Buckle up. What is perhaps both the busiest and most pivotal year in the history of the USMNT program is about to begin in earnest this month. 

The depth of the remarkably young player pool will be tested in CONCACAF Olympic qualifying in Mexico, with Jason Kreis’s 20-man squad on a mission to reinforce the optimism about the most promising generation in American men’s history by punching their ticket to Tokyo. Of course, the core of that generation will be on display in Europe with Gregg Berhalter in friendlies against Jamaica and Northern Ireland, so missing the Olympics for the third consecutive time wouldn’t feel like the same bellwether of trouble for the senior team. Nevertheless, qualifying for the Games with a U23 B- team would be an exclamation point on the indisputable reality that – fourteen years after the Development Academy was founded – elite player development in the United States has turned a corner. 

Beyond that symbolic significance, the Olympics could be another extended opportunity for Berhalter and Kreis to examine their player pool this summer, in addition to the Nations League in June and the Gold Cup in July. Berhalter has said Christian Pulisic and others he’ll count on come World Cup qualifying in the fall will not be called up to both of those regional competitions. The semifinal and final/third-place game of the Nations League will be bookended by friendlies, and as of right now the safe bet is that Berhalter’s first choice squad as well as other European-based players with a valuable club preseason on the horizon would be selected for the first camp of the summer, while Berhalter would lean on the domestic contingent for the Gold Cup. If the Olympics are also a part of the equation… more on that later. 

First, here’s what I’m watching for this month with a focus on the tactical and personnel options for Berhalter moving forward: 

The headline entering camp is the commitment of Valencia midfielder Yunus Musah. 

Credit to Gregg Berhalter for recruiting another coveted dual national who, unlike Sergiño Dest, was already in the youth national team program of the other country and has been pried away. Musah’s chances of representing England anytime soon – especially since losing his starting spot with Valencia (no shame in that, he’s 18) – were always slim, but he clearly believes in the project Berhalter is building and made up his mind for positive reasons. 

Musah accounts for a good chunk of the U20 minutes for Americans so far this season in top five European leagues that places the Yanks 5th globally in that category. For perspective, the other four are the countries of the domestic leagues themselves, except for Italy (who the US are ahead of).

As we wait to truly judge Berhatler, this is another potentially massive feather in his cap.

The ball-playing center back partnership that we’ve been salivating to see, John Brooks and Chris Richards, is finally (knock on wood) here.

On loan at Hoffenheim, Richards has immediately established himself as the starting left center back in a back three. Richards’ distribution with his weaker left foot – he’s been breaking lines firing into his teammates’ feet or clipping cute passes in the air – would make Brooks proud, and the two of them together could open up the field when playing out in an unprecedented way for this team. That could remain true if you replaced one of them with Mark McKenzie, who may soon pass Miazga and Aaron Long on the depth chart if he can lock down a spot in the lineup for Genk. The concern at the international level with Miazga so far is mainly mental and defensive mistakes, and while Long has been the incumbent first choice RCB, that should change with Richards getting Bundesliga games.

Antonee Robinson has been good for Fulham.

The Cottagers are in a relegation battle and if they did go down I would imagine a top flight team in England or elsewhere would buy Robinson this summer. Still, he has two more camps to prove he’s the guy at left back for Berhalter. If the US had a World Cup qualifier tomorrow, Sergiño Dest would probably start at left back, with Cannon or Yedlin on the right (do not discount Yedlin’s experience). This spot isn’t Robinson’s to lose; it’s up for grabs with upstarts like Sam Vines already staking a claim as a top left-footed option, George Bello primed to follow suit this year, and Roma’s shiny signing Bryan Reynolds – who just made his debut – maybe becoming the best reason to stick Dest on the left. It’s premature to compare Robinson to Timmy Chandler, but his club form needs to translate soon, because there’s no shortage of competition. 

Berhalter has interesting decisions to make from the midfield forward. 

Tyler Adams is penned in as the 6 with – for now – Jackson Yueill and Johnny Cardoso backing him up (if Adams is out, I’d trust Yueill in a home qualifier where he’s not under much pressure to pick his passes vs a bunkered opponent, and maybe Cardoso in a more CONFACAF-y situation). I think Andres Perea would be an 8 in Berhalter’s system, and Kreis mentioned that even Cardoso can contribute to the attack as an 8, which I’ll be keeping an eye on in Olympic qualifying.  

Looking at the rest of that central midfield, in possession, none of Weston McKennie, Brenden Aaronson and Yunus Musah are being asked by their clubs to heavily progress the ball in the middle. 

Musah is a right midfielder for Valencia, McKennie is nominally a wide midfielder given liberty to roam inside in possession and he is usually very advanced for Juventus, and Aaronson has been an attacking midfielder on both sides of the pitch or at the point of a diamond with RB Salzburg. 

When I asked Aaronson about his preferred position at the 2020 January camp, he said, “People say that I’m an 8 or a 10, I like to say that I’m an 8.5. Like right in between there, it really doesn’t matter for me, I think that either position I’m gonna do my best in, and I don’t really see myself as one of them.”

In his first two MNT appearances Aaronson was a center mid although in the second friendly vs El Salvador he was able to drift very high with the game so easily controlled. However, if Berhalter continues to have the wingers come in, that’s probably where Aaronson belongs. 

 

To be clear, a priority with the 8s is pressing and covering ground, and midfield ball progression vs CONCACAF shouldn’t be an issue. Veterans like Sebastian Lletget, or even Kellyn Acosta – who is a better fit as a CM in the 2-3-2-3 than the more advanced CM role in the 3-2-2-3 of 2019 (and like Yedlin, has qualifying experience that shouldn’t be ignored) – will suffice. The Adams, McKennie, Musah triumvirate was lovely in November, and I think Aaronson can ball in the middle against CONCACAF.

But it’s just merits monitoring as the Yanks aspire to become and then challenge an elite team in Qatar. Instead of developing McKennie deeper, Juventus have two other holding midfielders and have weaponized Weston in a way that is maximizing his strengths and his impact. Now it’s just about another midfielder providing balance – and having a few possible pairings due to inevitable injury and rotation during The Ocho.

FC Dallas may deliver another legit piece or two to the puzzle. 

Paxton Pomykal is not involved in either camp this month as he regains his fitness following his third surgery in three years. If he can stay healthy and/or if Tanner Tessman can take a major step this year, that’s fantastic news for the MNT. After making his senior team debut in January, I was surprised and disappointed by Tessman’s omission from the U23s. However, the group in Guadalajara is just about getting the job done at the moment, and Tessman and Caden Clark are two U20s whose ceilings tower over most of the names on that 20-man roster. 

Tessman blends technique, size and athleticism, a rare breed which the 3rd Degree folks – they cover FCD tremendously and, by the transitive property, the American men’s pipeline too – have noted will be in demand in Europe unlike the special yet much more replicable Pomykal. Both can smoothly progress the ball and are versatile, and probably best as 8s… although Pomykal could be a winger in Berhalter’s updated system and I’ve been intrigued about Tessman as the 6.

Pomykal is the most well-rounded 8 in the pool, and the prototype for what the position now entails in Berhalter’s system. 

Speaking of younger possibilities at the 6, James Sands and Chris Durkin have yet to be in an MNT camp and I hope that changes soon. With Yueill and Cardoso in Mexico, why not call up Belgium-based Durkin this month? 

Like Aaronson, Gio Reyna’s best position in this system is probably as a winger operating in the half-space, although I do believe Reyna will get a chance in the middle. 

The same would be true for Caden Clark if he has a breakout year with RBNY ahead of his move to Leipzig in January. The first domino in deciding if one of these attacking mids lines up as a nominal winger would be the profile of the No. 9 (more on that below). Pulisic and Tim Weah are the likely first choice LW and RW, respectively. Weah is finally fit and in form with Lille, trusted by his manager in the midst of a real title race with PSG. Weah is also an option at the 9 but when he’s deployed as a striker for Les Dogues he has a partner in a 4-4-2. While Weah could be effective as a 9 in Berhalter’s system or in another one with a partner, unless the motivation is to accommodate another winger, he should get the nod at RW. 

Steeled by a relegation scrap a year ago, Josh Sargent is coming into his own at just the right time for Gregg Berhalter.

In truth, Berhalter’s No. 9 role is tailor made for Josh Sargent. 

The buzzword has been “false 9” since the friendly vs Costa Rica to cap the 2020 January camp, and one year later it was Jesús Ferreira again dropping really deep in the build up. Sebastian Lletget had the license to do the same in the Wales friendly but the falseness of the 9 wasn’t as salient when it was Niko Gioacchini or Ayo Akinola because, although versatile, they’re closer to being primarily strikers. When I asked Berhalter about Ferreira’s role following the Costa Rica game last year as if there was novelty to it, he noted Sargent had been asked to do the same before in the fall. 

Last season Josh Sargent was steeled by the desperation of a relegation scrap with Werder Bremen, and even though the St. Louis native was starving for service, his production in the context of his team and other young strikers at that level wasn’t bad at all. Now, just as several other young American strikers are elbowing their way into the picture, Sargent is surging ahead and showing those who were losing patience when his progress seemed to stall that he is clearly the most complete up and coming striker in the pool. Sargent has three goals in his last four games – he makes his own luck with this tap-in, rewarded for his quick, decisive movement – and 7 on the season, plus 3 assists. He has the talent to make a McKennie-esque leap in his career if a big club swoops in to liberate him from Bremen. 

There’s an abundance of other young options up top, plus Jozy and Gyasi, and plenty of time for them to percolate. With the exception of Ferreira, I think just about every striker affords us room in the lineup for (if necessary) an attacking mid (Aaronson, Reyna, etc.) as a winger rather than needing both to be able to make runs in behind, which was the problem vs Wales. 

 

 

I’d expect at least one of Sargent, Jozy, Gioacchini and Ferreira to get called up to a World Cup qualifying camp. That likely leaves one (and maybe an extra if camp rosters are slightly larger than 23 due to fixture congestion) for pretty much the rest of that group that aren’t the same assets linking the play, such as Zardes, Dike, Hoppe, Soto and Siebatcheu. Zardes has improved in that area and has been Berhalter’s most trusted center forward to date, while Dike does have upside there. Unfortunately Barnsley’s route one approach when he’s up front hasn’t been conducive to  becoming a more well-rounded hitman.  

Hoppe hasn’t scored since bagging five goals in three games in January, including a superb hattrick vs Hoffenheim, but he’s still starting for Schalke and if/when they’re relegated it’ll be interesting to see Hoppe’s situation this summer. He recently signed with Schalke through the 2022-23 season and a year in the 2. Bundesliga wouldn’t hurt, but there’s already rumors that the Californian is on the radar of Premier League giants. And one such club has apparently bid $10 million for Dike, who has three goals so far on loan with Barnsley as they remain undefeated (8 wins in 9 matches) since he arrived. I’m not betting on a transfer to a big club for Hoppe but a move that lands him in a European top flight seems feasible and hopefully Orlando, who are waiting for an “extraordinary” offer, decide to cash out on Dike. Whether or not he’s ready for the jump to the big club, it’ll may take one to meet Orlando’s asking price. 

Siebatcheu is also enjoying a successful loan spell with the Swiss side Young Boys and he’s officially on board with the program, so we’ll see if cracks this next roster. Berhalter had also recently name dropped Aron Johannsson (as well as Julian Green, who’s been out for a month with Covid, which surely precludes him from being on this roster) who just moved from Hammarby to Lech Poznan in Poland. Akinola is yet to pick which country he’ll represent at the senior level but regardless, I think he’d end up being surplus to requirements. 

Pepi is another FCD product with immense potential and if his form in MLS puts him in the senior team conversation this cycle we’ll have reached peak, excitingly unforeseen selection dilemma territory. But it sounds like we’ll mainly be relying on Ferreira and Soto in Guadalajara. 

Uly Llanez’s loan with Herenveen hasn’t worked out and Kreis mentioned a knee injury a couple of months ago as well as a family situation that have made Uly’s season that much more difficult. 

Olympic qualifying is a timely chance to bounce back for Ulysses Llanez ahead of a crucial summer for the uniquely dangerous winger. 

“He’s a player that has some things to offer our group that not all of the wingers do,” Kreis said recently. “Even though I wouldn’t say he’s at 100% fitness right now, he’s a guy that we believe in. He’s a guy that has shown real hunger and commitment to play the way Gregg and the national teams have asked him. He’s done very with the full team, he’s a player that gets probably a little more of an opportunity than others might because of that.

Uly and Ferreira shined in their debuts vs Costa Rica last year and could make the difference for Kreis between failure and a return to the Olympics. Even if he lacks 90 minute stamina today – Kreis said they’ve been building his fitness back up through camp – Uly could provide a needed boost off the bench, similar to his supersub spark for Tab Ramos at the last U20 World Cup. 

It’s been 13 years since Michael Bradley led a group of American men onto the field at an Olympics. The US will try again soon.

If the Americans do qualify for Tokyo, between the Games and the Gold Cup, hopefully the Timbers duo of forward Jeremy Ebobisse (who wasn’t called into camp by Kreis) and midfielder Eryk Williamson (who didn’t make the cut, after being sent home from January camp as well) get a look this summer. 

When asked about their omissions in an interview on Grant Wahl’s podcast, Kreis said, “I think people don’t often times understand that a player can perform with one team one way, and you bring him into a different environment and now the performance looks different… for both of those players, having both of those players in January camp, their performances there mattered. And then to have Eryk down here, I spoke with Eryk at the end of the camp and we told him that he wasn’t gonna make the roster, and he kind of agreed. He said, ‘You know, look, I haven’t been great. For whatever reason, it just doesn’t feel right.’ The other part, a little bit about that, is just the tactics that are being asked. What we’re asking our guys to do, the game model, doesn’t fit all the players… I’m a big fan of all these guys, if I could bring them all I’d do it. Unfortunately, I only get to choose 20.’”  

 

Injury and rotation renders thinking about the MNT in terms of a best eleven less relevant and as I’ve written before, it’s increasingly important to factor in depth and the additional dimensions it can create tactically. 

Berhalter resorted to a 3-4-3 to close out a friendly vs Chile in 2019 then tried it from the start in a pre-Gold Cup friendly vs Jamaica. It combusted, the Yanks lost and I can’t remember another instance when that’s been the base formation. If the Americans can qualify without having to deviate from tweaks to a 4-3-3 while imposing possession and pressure on CONCACAF home and away, that’s glorious. But even if circumstances don’t invite setting up with a back 3, like at Azteca last cycle to grind out a draw, the pool may be beckoning. Dest, Yedlin, Robinson, and Bello may all be better as wingbacks. There’s a bunch of holding midfielders who could function in a double pivot. Pulisic, Reyna, and Aaronson as wider attacking mids in a 3-4-3; Pulisic or Weah playing off of a striker like Sargent or Dike (or Sargent playing off Dike) in a 3-5-2… the key question is if it makes sense with the center backs. Richards looks very solid with Hoffenheim as the LCB in their back three. He anticipates and steps into the midfield swiftly and a few minutes at fullback with Bayern showed he can defend in wide areas on both sides. Whether or not Brooks is comfortable, he won’t start every qualifier and there’s certainly some permutation that would be worth an attempt. I think the less adventurous, defense-first fullbacks like Vines, Cannon and Julian Araujo could also be outside center backs in a three, and James Sands could be another piece to the three (or the backup 6) if/when he’s in the MNT picture. 

The midfield is also well-stocked with shuttlers (McKennie, Musah, Lletget, Pomykal, even Adams if someone else is the 6) to try a 4-4-2 diamond (Aaronson or Reyna at the point). 

I’m not bracing you for disappointment that the US might not qualify for Tokyo but just reiterating my stance from the outset B.C. (Before Covid). 

Whether or not their clubs would release them, it would always be risky sending A-teamers to the Olympics due to the conflict with their club preseason and the minutes that could cost them in the first few weeks of the season, right before World Cup qualifying begins. Being at big clubs is a double-edged sword, as the Americans’ best player is experiencing right now, and not for the first time in his career. Besides John Brooks – who I absolutely wouldn’t send as an overage player, just keep him in bubble wrap until September 2, 2021 – no one in the US nucleus is guaranteed to return to their club and waltz into the starting lineup. Sure, the Olympics could also serve as a rather intense, beneficial preseason in and of itself that is so close enough to qualifying where the cohesion is that fresh and can carry over that much more. But it could backfire.

In terms of establishing a culture of dominating CONCACAF and the taste of a special international competition – especially without a U-20 World Cup for the likes of Tessman, Clark, Taylor Booth, Aidan Morris, Gianluca Busio, etc. – qualifying is definitely important. But the good news is there’s a Gold Cup where the Americans can still test (and cap-tie) some top MLS prospects (ex. Pepi) alongside fringe veterans who deserve a genuine shot to prove they’re varsity material (ex. Julian Green). The perception of MLS abroad and the market value of its prospects is shifting enough (Exhibit A: Bryan Reynolds, Exhibit B: Brenden Aaronson, who never went to a youth World Cup) to the point where I’m not concerned that this is a missed opportunity at a showcase for European scouts. The Olympics would be a beautiful bonus but even if the U23s do fall short of the final in Mexico, two MNT friendlies could make that very easy to forget. 

Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a longtime TYAC contributor. He coaches soccer at the University of Southern California and you can follow him on Twitter @tha_Real_Kumar.

Written by: Sanjay Sujanthakumar on March 17, 2021.
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