A cathedral hosts a final that suits it today.
Neil W. Blackmon
As much as fans lamented the dull World Cup semifinal between forever bridesmaids Holland and Argentina, the more fair question is what, exactly, would have made that game scintillating after Germany’s 7-1 thrashing of host Brazil in Belo Horizonte? Indeed, Holland-Argentina, while certainly a dull match, was doomed from the start: there’s not much that can be done as an encore act following a game that will be extensively featured in any meaningful book on the World Cup or tactics for the next century. Still, Argentina edged a negative Holland side in penalties, and in so doing delivered fans of the game a reprieve: Leo Messi vs. Germany’s “Machine” is surely a final fit for the Maracanã.
Fitting because the World Cup history between the two nations rivals nearly any other possible combination: two World Cup finals, two memorable group stage tilts, and two World Cup quarterfinals, most recently Germany’s 4-0 drubbing of Diego Maradona’s Argentina in South Africa. Argentina won the first final in 1986, with Franz Beckenbauer’s Jurgen Klinsmann led side returning the favor in 1990. History seems to have appropriately awarded a rubber match.
A fitting final too because of the venue, the Maracanã. As sporting cathedrals go, the Estádio do Maracanã is Yankee Stadium, Notre Dame Stadium, Rupp Arena, Soldier Field, Phog Allen Fieldhouse and Madison Square Garden rolled into one. Even renovated, the place is a living and breathing monument to soccer, from the odd moat surrounding the pitch to the cavernous corner called the curva where the samba cadence originates to the polished granite sidewalks honoring Brazil’s greatest soccer players. It was at the Maracanã in 1969 where Edson Arantes do Nascimento, better known as Pelé, scored his 1,000th goal in competition, and it was here, in 1961, where Pelé scored what a plaque at the Maracanã memorializes as “the most beautiful goal ever,” dancing around six defenders while faking pass after pass until finally, mercifully, putting the ball past a hapless goalkeeper from Senegal. It is quite the place to end the world’s grandest sporting event. From the sky, or even from the middle class neighborhood in which it is situated, the stadium’s stature doesn’t do justice to its splendor. Given the venue’s splendor, Brazil 2014 was always a World Cup that demanded at least one of the globe’s best players, and in Lionel Messi, this final offers perhaps soccer’s current best.
Fitting finally because of this World Cup itself. While 2010’s World Cup was the exclamation point on a tactical trend away from old-school playmakers and towards new ones, who can find a way to fit in more reactive, defensive soccer (largely due to the preeminence of the 4-2-3-1 formation); this World Cup was a bold step in the other direction, to more offensive, attacking play and, as such, much more entertaining football. What can be gleaned from this World Cup tactically will be hashed out by the great tactical writers in the months to come, but despite the existence of contrarian opinions, on the field, this was a magnificent World Cup that deserves a classic final.
Will we get one? It’s possible, at the very least. Here are a few thoughts on what to watch for today.
Mascherano saved the day, even if he shouldn’t have been playing.
Key Player for Argentina that isn’t Leo Messi: Javier Mascherano
I wrote before the tournament, and, probably at the expense of boring Twitter followers, have tweeted throughout the tournament that Javier Mascherano is the key non-Messi piece for this Argentina side and the tournament has validated that belief.
Argentina have been maligned for their weaknesses, and it’s true that if they win they’ll be one of the less-impressive looking outfits to call themselves champions– but Mascherano is the straw that stirs the organizational drink. He functions, essentially, as a third center half and you’ll rarely see him more than 15 yards ahead of the back four. This is different than the swashbuckling role he played earlier in his career and to some extent the fact his club role (he’s sometimes a CB at Barca) closely mirrors his international role has helped him immensely.
Mascherano has been tremendous this tournament, and saved Argentina’s bacon in the semifinal despite suffering what had to be close to a concussion in the match. Whether he should have continued playing is another debate (the take here is no), but there’s no question he was massive and his late tackle against Arjen Robben who had split the defense through the left channel saved the day for Argentina.
Today, he’ll be tasked with marshaling organization ahead of Argentina’s uninspiring back four, and whether he wins the battle of the holding midfielders against a resurgent Sami Khedira will have a big say in how the match ends.
What has been surprising about Mascherano in Brazil has been his distribution. Throughout qualifying, he was asked to keep things simple (walk the dog- think Kyle Beckerman) in the back but in Brazil he’s played some outstanding passes to the likes of Angel Di Maria (who will miss the final, sadly) and Ezequiel Lavezzi. If he can continue to spray the ball around diagonally as he has often at this tournament, Argentina will have a chance.
The reality is they’ll need him too: Fernando Gago, usually the conduit between the back five and front four, has had a poor tournament and Argentina have won in spite of him. World Cup finals aren’t usually the stage where you correct what has gone wrong in a tournament. Ask Johnny Heitinga. Gago’s poor play has shifted distribution from the back responsibilities to Mascherano without correcting his longstanding problem of going “walkabout”; Gago has continued to get too far ahead of the ball at defensive transitions, leaving Argentina open on the break and placing more pressure on Mascherano in particular to destroy. That’s an issue that Germany is well-suited to exploit.
Since his early goal against Portugal, Muller has stamped this tournament with his head, and his boots.
Key German Player: Thomas Müller
Not exactly reinventing the wheel with this selection but I think the matchup favors Müller more than any of his front line mates Mesut Özil, Mario Götze and/or Miroslav Klose.
Müller’s deployment this tournament, perhaps only second to Toni Kroos’, is a testament to the tremendous job Jogi Low does managing the German side and one of the most fascinating questions of the final, for me, is where they’ll utilize Müller today.
Müller was never really a true forward when he began the tournament up front and he’s even less a winger in the spot on the right he’s occupied since the France match in the quarterfinal. Müller instead remains advanced and prepared to sweep in from the channels and play either as a second striker behind Miroslav Klose, where he can either support Klose directly or serve as an outlet for Khedira and Toni Kroos.
What’s interesting about that is two-fold: 1) it leaves space behind where a fullback and winger can threaten the Germans on the overlap- something France did quite well, generating several overloads against the repositioned Phillip Lahm; and 2) it didn’t matter at all against Brazil, and in fact created massive amounts of space for Germany on the counter, who literally could walk into the box from the channels because Marcelo was so far forward.
Müller probably won’t change his game too much, but if he is deployed on the right it will be fascinating to see how Argentina defends him. Marcus Rojo is an attacking fullback, but wasn’t against Holland, sitting deeper to prevent Arjen Robben from breaking through on the flank. The thinking here is he’ll repeat the Holland role, sitting deeper to track Müller in the final.
This is probably the safest thing to do, but Müller is such an intelligent player that he’s bound to find space. There’s not a player in soccer who appears to be “unmarked” more than Müller. Even when he goes silent, he’s a threat to score from nowhere and very well may today in Rio.
Argentina will want to prevent Germany from countering at will-but must not forget set pieces.
Set Pieces, Set Pieces, Set Pieces
Germany entered the tournament remarkably ranked 32nd of 32 teams on scoring goals from set pieces. They didn’t score a single goal from a header and only one from a set piece in their qualifying campaign. They have proven these metrics to be an anomaly in the Finals, punishing Portugal, Ghana, France and Brazil on set pieces and setting the tone for their rout of Brazil with the early Müller goal in the semifinal.
Against this threat, Argentina, like most CONMEBOL teams (save Brazil), struggle both to defend set pieces and score from set pieces. Sabella’s side entered the tournament 31st of 32 teams in both metrics, and, despite Lionel Messi’s gorgeous set piece goal earlier in the competition, have done little to disprove the allegation that they are a weak set piece side, often appearing threatened on opposition set pieces, particularly against Iran, who were unfortunate not to win.
Here, Argentina will have to remember 2010, when an early Müller set piece goal staked the Germans to a lead and set them on a path to a 4-0 rout. Argentina have set-piece threats too – Martin Demichelis, Ezequiel Garay and Marcos Rojo are all dangerous in the air, as is Gonzalo Higuain, and Messi is a threat to make magic anytime he stands over a free kick– but statistically, the Argentines haven’t punished teams in set piece situations in qualifying or in Brazil. That may need to change if they are to win a third World Cup today. At the least, they’ll need to prevent Germany from scoring a cheap one. And remember- when Germany has scored early, they’ve been naturally devastating, because the space opens up immediately for their rapid counters.
Holland harassed Messi in the channels. Will Germany do the same?
Messi at the Maracanã– Is it His Time?
The greatest players, the ones canonized in history, by and large have had their moments in a World Cup final, whether it be Pele or Bobby Moore or Diego Maradona or Jurgen Klinsmann or Brazil’s Ronaldo or Garrincha. Leo Messi’s legacy is a silly conversation piece because it is already, of course, secure– but his overall place among the greatest to ever play the game can be cemented emphatically with a magisterial performance in today’s final.
To prevent this from happening, Germany will have to do two things: 1) Help defend, particularly in the channels where Messi likes to operate and get the ball to his preferred left foot (something Holland did exceptionally well); and 2) hope Bastian Schweinsteiger, who has had a strong tournament, plays a tremendous game.
If this sounds difficult, it is– but the name of the game is of course not to stop Messi but simply to contain him so he doesn’t control the game. Germany, perhaps more so than any other team in this tournament, have the personnel to do it.
Schweinsteiger has played well as the deep-lying midfielder for Jogi Low since the France match, and he’ll have to do the grunt work against Messi in that role today. How much help the Bayern man has is another big tactical question. Against France and Brazil, Sami Khedira and Toni Kroos pressed high up the field against the opposing midfields, leaving space between themselves and Schweinsteiger but also serving to cut the ball and service off to the playmakers up front. It’s reasonable to think Jogi Low could go that route again in the final, and/but if he does, Schweinsteiger’s job becomes a bit more difficult.
Complicating matters, Messi is a much more effective player for country now than he was in 2010, despite criticisms of Sabella for his deployments. There have been times this tournament where one wondered why Sabella insisted Messi play as a classic Argentinian number ten– to some extent, it prevents him from attacking the box with the same gusto you see at Barca, thus neutralizing one of his greatest strengths as a player.
Schweinsteiger has played quite well in the deep-lying role Low assigned to him after the Algeria match.
At the same time, Messi has appeared comfortable at other times lying a bit deeper, receiving the ball and waiting for support. He’s also shown a deftness in his movements- drifting right and then running with the ball through the channels with an eye on getting the ball to his preferred left foot. It’s in this instance where Schweinsteiger will need the most help, especially if Germany plays a high pressure system with Kroos and Khedira and there is little “help” from the midfield zone. Benedikt Höwedes is a center back playing out of position on that side, and whether he’s up to the task of containing and helping on Messi after he drifts and cuts toward the channels is a question that could influence the outcome. Höwedes may opt to not chase Messi, giving him space on the outside and hoping Germany can clear away any crosses. This gives Messi time to make passes, but is probably a better bet than chasing him through the channel where he can access his left foot.
The good news is that Germany’s ability to press both Mascherano and Lucas Biglia up the field through Khedira and Kroos could make it more difficult for Messi to receive the ball in deep attacking positions, and if that’s the case, Schweinsteiger’s help against Messi will rely less on Höwedes and the Germans remaining compact in the back, and more about simply preventing the ball from getting to Messi in threatening areas. That’s obviously optimal.
To counter all of this, Alejandro Sabella may decide to force the Germans to do something beyond counter attack. The irony here is that this was the aim of Jogi Low in the aftermatch of EURO 2012 and really, World Cup 2010 elimination– to build a side capable of playing attacking and proactive soccer for long periods of time. It’s a goal that isn’t a finished project.
Should Sabella defend deeper than Brazil, allowing Biglia, Enzo Perez (tucked in from the right flank), and Mascherano to simply defend in numbers and not allow the Germans to control the midfield zone and quickly break into space on the counter, the match may be much tighter, and begin to favor Argentina, who with Messi win the “Moment of Magic” debate. As much as Argentina have been criticized (rightly, in my view) for their weaknesses, they defend well in numbers and have conceded zero goals in the run of play since the Nigeria match. If you deny Germany the chance to counter attack consistently, Jogi Low’s side are beatable, as anyone who watched the United States fly forward late should recognize.
Either way, it’s a final fit for the venue.
Neil W. Blackmon is Co-Founder and Co-Editor of The Yanks Are Coming. He can be reached at nwblackmon@gmail.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @nwb_usmnt.