Seattle may get to defend its title after all- just not the way anyone expected.
Kartik Krishnaiyer
Major League Soccer (MLS) is preparing to resume play with closed-door neutral site matches. Last week, The Washington Post’s Steve Goff reported MLS is strongly considering resuming its season behind closed doors in a Florida “bubble.”
My own reporting confirms that MLS is currently in the process of talking to local Orlando and state of Florida officials about such a plan.
COVID-19 is a deadly serious matter and our two major domestic men’s pro leagues, MLS and USL, must both be given enormous credit for taking early and quick action in March. Unlike leaders in Europe that dithered on decisions and UEFA, whose own negligence may have directly led to an increased spread of the virus, authorities in this country have been by comparison responsible.
Under the plan, per published reports more than 1,000 players and staff would live under quarantine at a Disney resort. Disney owns ESPN and ABC who are media partners of MLS.
Facilities across Central Florida would likely be used for closed-door matches. My understanding is training would begin in early June with the July 4 holiday a target to begin competitive matches. Intensive testing would take place during the quarantine to protect players and staff from being exposed to the virus. The competition format is yet to be determined.
This past weekend, the German Bundesliga resumed play in home venues behind closed-doors. However, it must be noted Germany had administered more per capita COVID-19 tests than the USA as of May 17 and also has a lower per capita infection and death rate than the US per data obtained the same day. Comparisons betweent the two situations, as a result, is counterproductive given the aggresssive, forward-thinking nature of the German response compared to what’s occurred in the United States.
With the unevenness of the virus’ distribution in the US as well as a federal system where some localities are likely to continue to ban sporting events, even closed door competitions for the foreseeable future, a neutral-site controlled environment is MLS’ best option moving forward.
A Disney competition is not without merit or a fair share of positives.
What are the upsides for MLS’ doing this?
Simply put, under MLS’ plans they’d be first-to-market among major US sports leagues and likely enjoy a run of largely uncontested primetime showings on ESPN. Given the league’s difficulty in obtaining high English-language television ratings when placed against major US sports, the gamble might well be worth it.
MLS is currently in a phase where they continue to expand and consolidate control over the men’s game in the United States. The recent announcement of the MLS Elite Player Development Platform effectively puts the league in control of the highest level of player development on the boys side. MLS is also making other moves currently behind the scenes to grow its footprint even further nationally.
The league could help consolidate its position as a soccer leader and a mainstream major North American sports property by kicking off earlier than other US sports leagues and airing matches on ESPN and other broadcast partners several times a week in primetime. The target audience is not necessarily those watching the Bundesliga and aching for a return to the Premier League, but those missing the NBA, NHL, MLB and college sports.
Potential pitfalls:
The obvious health risks involved with this pandemic is why personally, people like me do not want to see sports restarted until we have a vaccine or at least a good handle on a potential second wave and its timing. But given that doesn’t appear a viable financial option for any league, let’s focus on some other possible problems with MLS’ proposed restart.
Canadian clubs
MLS is a cross-border league that has three Canadian teams and it is unclear how the league relocates clubs whose players are either domestic Canadians or have work visas for Canada to the United States over a long period of time. The league has outstanding immigration attorneys but this seems to be a potential issue IF the league is playing in Florida long-term. That said, if the competition resembles a one-month World Cup or European Championship like tournament it likely isn’t a problem at all. We will have to wait and see on this.
Testing
Contrary to the narrative being spun by the President of the United States and others, the US is not a leader in testing. Having administered per capita less COVID-19 tests than most other western nations, a “testing and tracing,” regime has yet to be properly put in place in the mass scale MLS would need, anywhere in this country. The potential liability issues or public relations headache if it goes wrong are enormous. Additionally, Florida has seen little decline in confirmed cases since its phase one reopening two weeks ago. In South Florida, which just reopened Monday, there was actually a spike in newly diagnosed cases, though Governor DeSantis has suggested this is solely due to a testing results lag.
DeSantis has taken a data-based approach to reopening unlike several other Governors, which means it is possible Florida will not be as “open” as other areas while MLS is playing in the state. But this is impossible to accurately predict right now. e
Quarantine
A hypothetical: A young staffer who is already feeling cooped up gets out of line, breaks quarantine, going out to sample the nightlife in Orlando. This staffer gets infected, and before being properly tested has spread the virus.
This hypothetical may seem far-fetched but as someone who has worked in the game for years, I must say there are always one or two people who are going to break rules. Obviously MLS’ is going to take every precaution even with training and off-field interaction to limit the chances of a spread at any point, BUT the mere action of having so many people in contact with others even within a “bubble” limits the ability to completely rule out a communal spread. In Germany, punishments for quarantine breaking has been swift. Will MLS follow the Bundesliga’s lead?
No atmosphere neutral sites
We already saw how lifeless some matches can be where a normally intense atmosphere carries the audience this past weekend in the Bundesliga. One of MLS’ great assets is its home atmospheres in places like Seattle, Portland, Atlanta and Kansas City. But with every match presumably streamed via ESPN+/MLS Live, home fans at least will see their favorite clubs in action. Losing atmosphere is a tradeoff unfortunately MLS has no choice but to make in this circumstance.
After being reminded of the aesthetics of an empty-stadium games, having a hard time believing it will be a good thing for MLS to have empty-stadium games at an amateur field at the Wide World of Sports presented on national TV.
— Paul Tenorio (@PaulTenorio) May 16, 2020
Beyond MLS – Other domestic men’s soccer
My understanding from multiple sources is the USL Championship, the nation’s second division is nowhere near a restart.
Unlike MLS, USL largely plays its home matches in rented facilities and, even more than MLS, USL is heavily dependent on gameday ticket, parking and concession revenue. Without meaningful television or sponsorship revenue at a league level, USL has a different set of circumstances to deal with. USL probably needs progression in terms of localities allowing gatherings with fans to properly restart.
USL also runs a third division, USL League One which faces an even stiffer uphill battle. That league is very well run from a central office in Tampa and has already made enormous sacrifices to ensure player and staff safety. I assume this policy will continue, and we won’t see League One soccer until 2021 or a vaccine.
NISA, one of two third divisions in the country has similar considerations as the USL Championship and appears miles away from restarting. Unlike USL, NISA does not have a strong central office. As is the case in other leagues, however, to other leagues has wisely put player, fan and staff safety at the forefront of decision making.
The decision by UPSL, one of the nation’s fourth divisions governed as an adult amatuer league, to allow a voluntary restart to its clubs was surprising especially given NPSL, another national league at the same level had already opted to cancel its season outright.
Bottom Line
MLS is taking a major risk accelerating a restart. But given the opportunities for a major breakthrough on the American sporting landscape have been limited, it’s an opportunity likely worth taking. If MLS pulls this off, the 25th Anniversary season of the league will be worth remembering for multiple reasons.
A lifelong lover of soccer, the beautiful game, Krishnaiyer has been watching the US Men’s National Team closely for well over two decades. He served from January 2010 until May 2013 as the Director of Communications and Public Relations for the North American Soccer League (NASL) and South Florida club The Miami FC. Raised on the Fort Lauderdale Strikers of the old NASL, Krishnaiyer previously hosted the American Soccer Show on the Champions Soccer Radio Network, the Major League Soccer Talk podcast and the EPL Talk Podcast. His soccer writing has been featured by several media outlets including The Guardian and The Telegraph. He is the author of the book Blue With Envy about Manchester City FC. Follow him on Twitter @kkfla737.