Can Carlos Ruiz and Guatemala manufacture a miracle? This and other questions await CONCACAF Labor Day weekend.
Neil W. Blackmon
Labor Day marks the unofficial final stand of summer for most the country, particularly up north, where school beckons on the other side and barbeque grills linger, hoping to keep the smells of a summer well spent in the air just a moment longer.
For soccer fans, of course, the summer of soccer ended this weekend, with Neymar’s clinching penalty kick helping Brazil capture its first Olympic gold medal. With a whirlwind summer of soccer in the rearview, European club football back underway and MLS and NASL headed down the backstretch of their campaigns, autumn has already beckoned, with its Saturday morning coffee and football and Sunday evening MLS game of the week.
CONCACAF, however, offers a Labor Day last stand of its own, with next week’s international break the region’s final farewell to summer. Five days. Twelve nations. Two matches apiece for five remaining spots in the CONCACAF 2018 World Cup final qualifying round- lovingly referred to as “The Hex.”
Here’s a look nation by nation at what is at stake beginning next Friday night.
GROUP A
Here’s the points and goal difference break down to date:
Mexico 12, +10
Honduras 4, -1
Canada 4, -4
El Salvador 2, -5
GAMES:
SEPT 2:
CAN @ HON, San Pedro Sula
MEX @ ESV, San Salvador
SEPT 6:
HON @ MEX, Azteca
ESV @ CAN, Vancouver
And here’s where everyone stands:
After the 7-0 loss in the Copa quarters and Olympic failure, Mexico can use these two games to regain momentum.
Mexico:
The only team qualified for the HEX at present, El Tri have steamrolled their way through this qualifying stage, and until the disastrous 7-0 defeat to Chile in the quarterfinals of the Copa América Centenario, had been unbeaten under new manager Juan Carlos Osorio.
The calamitous defeat to La Roja at the Copa was just the beginning of a tough summer for Mexico, who failed miserably in their efforts to defend their 2012 Olympic Gold. Mexico were unable to even reach the knockout stages in Brazil, undone by a 1-0 surprise defeat to the Korea Republic in Brasilia in the final group stage match.
Despite being qualified for the HEX, El Tri will likely look to the Labor Day qualifiers as an opportunity to put a tough summer behind them and regain the momentum they carried into 2016 on the heels of their 3-2 victory over the United States in the CONCACAF Cup.
Honduras:
If Mexico’s summer was a struggle, Los Catrachos used the summer as medicine for a World Cup cycle that had otherwise ended in failure and sadness. Having failed to qualify for the Copa América, thanks to a stunning third place group stage finish at the 2014 Copa Centroamericana, legitimate questions were being asked as to whether this was a wasted cycle for a small country that had qualified for three consecutive World Cups. Even Jorge Luis Pinto, hero of the Costa Rican run to the quarterfinals in Brazil 2014, was short on answers.
Enter the Olympics, and a fourth place performance where Los Catrachos youth teams flashed a future filled hope, and for the first time in a while, goals. Time will tell if Honduras can fully embrace Pinto’s high-pressure, defend and frenetically counter style of play. But with young talents like Anthony Lozano, Alberth Elis Rommel Quito and Bryan Acosta at Pinto’s disposal, Honduras have the look of a side that could make noise in the HEX, if they can just get through these two games.
Thanks to a lead in goal differential, a single point should be enough to send Honduras to the HEX. But a trip to Azteca sits on the back end of the Labor Day weekend, which means Honduras’ fate in this qualifying round will likely be decided in the friendly confines of the San Pedro Sula, where Canada await September 2nd.
Canada:
The Canadians opened this round of World Cup qualifying with a 1-0 victory over Honduras at BC Place, and that’s given them a chance. The fact they haven’t scored a World Cup qualifying goal since has made the chance only a slim one.
Behind on goal differential, a trip to the HEX likely means Canada need six points from two games to advance, barring a total collapse by Honduras at Azteca, which isn’t out of the question but is far-fetched. Still, the back end of the draw favors the Canadians. A home match with El Salvador ought to yield three points. Win at the San Pedro Sula, somehow, someway, and Canada should go through.
El Salvador:
With two points, El Salvador are mathematically still in the World Cup 2018 tournament, but down five goals on difference they would likely need a miracle to advance.
Step one to that miracle? Find a way to beat Mexico in San Salvador next Friday night. Do that and the final game might be very meaningful.
Andre Blake is among the many Jamaican players who has been tremendous this World Cup Cycle. The national team has little to show for it.
GROUP B
A picture that is a bit clearer, with at least one strong CONCACAF side headed home.
The standings and goal difference at present:
Costa Rica 10, +5
Panama 7, +2
Jamaica 4, -4
Haiti 1, -3
And the matches:
SEPT 2:
CRC @ HAI, Port-Au-Prince
JAM @ PAN, Panama City
SEPT 6:
HAI @ JAM, Kingston
PAN @ CRC, Estadio Nacional, San Jose
Costa Rica:
Need only one point to assure they get through, and might not even need that, given the way the group sets up.
The Ticos weren’t great at the Copa América, but they did win a thrilling match against Colombia that reminded the world of the not insubstantial talent at Óscar Ramírez’s disposal. The Ticos will enter the HEX as one of the favorites to qualify for Russia, and with good reason.
Next weekend, they’ll travel to Haiti and play a Haitian team mostly playing for pride before returning to San Jose to meet Panama. The second game, at the Estadio Nacional, could be entirely meaningless or absolutely vital, depending on what happens September 2nd when Panama and Jamaica get together in Panama City.
Panama:
Thanks to goal difference, the Canal Men are in fairly good shape for a return to the HEX and a chance, albeit with an aging team, to qualify for the country’s first World Cup. Hernán Darío Gómez’s side, the country and American and Mexico fans alike remember how close Panama were to qualifying in 2014, only to lose out in the waning moments thanks to Graham Zusi’s perfectly placed header. A point of emphasis during Labor Day weekend will be avoiding a situation where everything can be lost in an instant against a superior team- which is what lies in wait at Costa Rica on the backend of the weekend.
Panama were a pleasant surprise at the Copa América this summer, defeating Bolivia in a tropical storm in Orlando and playing a fun, uptempo game with Chile in the group stage finale before losing 4-2. That match and the win over Bolivia should give them confidence heading into September 2nd’s decisive home match against Jamaica.
Goal difference will also matter. Even if Los Canaleros fall to Jamaica on home soil next Friday night, they enter play with a six goal edge on goal difference. Jamaica will need to overcome that should the teams remain tied, or Panama will go through.
Jamaica:
The 2015 Gold Cup finalists really ought to be better. Wes Morgan captained Leicester City to the Premier League title, one of the most shocking accomplishments in the history of sport; Andre Blake has been the central figure in the Philadelphia Union’s MLS renaissance; Giles Barnes made headlines when he was traded to bolster the Vancouver Whitecaps front line; Chelsea youngster Michael Hector found a quality loan to Eintracht Frankfurt waiting for him after the arrival of Antonio Conte in London. This is a team with some terrific pieces, and one that defends well under manager Winnie Schäfer.
And yet for all the good moments under Schäfer, whether at the 2015 Copa América or the 2015 Gold Cup triumph over the United States, the Reggae Boyz have struggled to find any extended run of good form internationally.
Wes Morgan, literally still partying after Leicester City’s Premier League triumph, arrived for the Copa this summer fat and out of shape, and Jamaica failed to score a single goal, losing three times.
Meanwhile, Jamaica could not parlay a Gold Cup final into any terrific results in qualifying, leaving them on the edge of elimination despite being decidedly more talented than Panama.
A last reprieve comes next Friday, with a trip to Panama City. Win and Jamaica can force Group B into a free for all on September 6th. Lose, and the Reggae Boyz will turn the page on Russia 2018, and Wes Morgan’s talented generation, wondering what happened.
Haiti:
The Haitians are almost certainly eliminated, though there is one potential path. They need to win both their matches, first with Costa Rica and then away at Jamaica. Then they need:
- Jamaica to win at Panama
- Panama to lose to Mexico
- Make up 5 goal difference on Panama
The odds are long, and truthfully, for a federation still recovering from the devastating 2010 earthquake, which destroyed many of the country’s soccer fields and shut down its nascent development program for two years, that’s okay. There’s a talent deficit, and it isn’t Haiti’s fault.
What’s great is that the Haitians will never, ever, under any circumstances quit. And it is their passion that draws us to them anyway. Passion that is unrivaled in any other sport, like we saw in Orlando when, hopelessly behind, James Marcelin of the NASL’s Carolina Railhawks scored this goal against Brazil at the Copa América this summer.
GROUP C
Here’s where we’re at standings wise.
Trinidad and Tobago, 10, +8
United States, 7, +7
Guatemala, 6, +1
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0, -16
SEPT 2:
USA @ SVG, Kingstown
GUA @ TTO, Port-of-Spain
SEPT 6:
SVG @ GUA, Guatemala City
TTO @ USA, Jacksonville
With Kevin Molino back in the fold, Trinidad and Tobago are well positioned to reach the HEX for the first time since the 2010 cycle.
Trinidad and Tobago:
Still the smallest nation to ever qualify for a World Cup (Germany 06), the Soca Warriors need a point from two games. But don’t tell them that.
Orlando City’s Kevin Molino told TYAC this month that he and his teammates “know what’s at stake”, and that “they can’t approach the final two games like it is only one point in two matches, because that will assure failure.”
Stephen Hart should have his full complement of players, including Molino, who missed the first portion of this stage of qualifying, at his disposal for these two games, and he’ll likely put tremendous emphasis on the first match, next Friday night at Hasely Crawford Stadium in Port-of-Spain. Guatemala will be eliminated with a draw, and will have to go for it. How much Joevin Jones, Molino and company can slice them up on the counter will go a long way in determining whether Trinidad and Tobago reach the HEX for the first time since the 2010 cycle.
Should the Soca Warriors slip up against Guatemala, they’ll be forced into the difficult position of defeating the United States on American soil four days later. That’s not where you want to be, but the US under Jurgen Klinsmann are hardly invincible.
Bobby Wood and the US enter Labor Day weekend with no guarantees.
United States:
For the second consecutive World Cup cycle, the Americans enter the final games of this stage of qualifying without a spot in the HEX assured. Last cycle, it took until the final game, and when Carlos Ruiz (of course it was) scored early, the Americans appeared on the brink of colossal disaster. The US came through that evening in Kansas City, and they are in a good position to come through here.
There are a handful of qualifying scenarios:
If both the US and Trinidad and Tobago win September 2nd, then both qualify, as the US will have ten points and Guatemala will have only six. The results on the final match day will only determine who wins Group C, nothing else.
If the US win and Trinidad and Tobago tie on September 2nd, the US will win the group with a win in Jacksonville. Trinidad and Tobago will still go through to the HEX on goal difference.
If the US win and Guatemala defeat Trinidad and Tobago on September 2nd, then things become fascinating. Guatemala can go through by defeating St. Vincent and the Grenadines at that point. Trinidad and Tobago would need to defeat the US to go through. The U.S., holding a goal difference edge on Trinidad and Tobago at that point, would simply need a draw to advance. The Americans could win the group with a win.
The sense at TYAC is that Jacksonville is destined to become an American qualifying mainstay. The US have routed good sides there- whipping Scotland behind a Landon Donovan hat trick and crushing Nigeria in the 2014 Send-Off Series. This is the city’s first qualifier.
Michael Bradley said the American players are excited to play in a city they view as a fortress:
“When you play in Jacksonville, what really shines through is the pride and patriotism of the people in the city. As much as they appreciate soccer, they also reinforce the pride we feel in getting to represent the United States. It’s been an incredible atmosphere in the stadium when we’ve been there before, and on a day where so much is at stake for our team it will be great to have their support.”
Given the Yanks are likely to win at St. Vincent and the Grenadines, it is good to have Jacksonville as an insurance policy. But September 2nd’s results could change the stakes of the game.
Guatemala:
Most of what you need to know about Los Chapines chances of reaching the HEX is outlined above.
Walter Claveri’s side has been up and down throughout qualifying. As good as they were in pasting the US 2-0 at the Estadio Mateo Flores, they were equally as bad in a 2-1 defeat to Trinidad and Tobago that wasn’t as close as the score. And their performance in a 4-0 loss in Columbus only four days removed from beating the US was head-scratching.
Guatemala are an aging side that is long on heart and physicality and remarkably short on talent. Marco Pappa is one of the side’s only players who can make something out of nothing. But they are in a group where no one, including the United States, is invincible. And they close qualifying at home against a Saint Vincent and the Grenadines team that fields mostly amateur players.
Everything rides on their trip to Trinidad September 2nd. And for one game, we’ve already seen that the Guatemalans are wholly capable of a result.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines:
The only country already eliminated, what we’ll remember most about this country is that Oalex Anderson scored in the 5th minute against the United States to kick off the second qualifying campaign for the US under Jurgen Klinsmann. Here’s the goal, at the 6:30 mark of the video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYpplVIA8ws
Anderson, a fisherman, has not thrown away his shot, parlaying the goal into a contract with the Seattle Sounders, and some positive reviews in Seattle.
It’s the type of story that gets lost in the madness of a World Cup qualifying tournament, but part of the romance that makes the World Cup so compelling. And whatever happens for the team called “Vincy Heat” in these final two games, they’ve won a ton of respect for how hard they have competed in this round against impossible odds.
Neil W. Blackmon is Co-Founder of The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.