Toni Kroos and Germany have a tremendous chance to retain the World Cup.
Group F Predicted Order of Finish: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea
No one has retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1962, but this incarnation of Die Mannschaft is more complete than the group that broke through for Europe on South American soil in 2014.
Joachim Löw started four CB’s in the back four in Brazil, only to limp through the Round of 16 game against Algeria before adjusting, moving the great Phil Lahm out of the midfield and back to fullback to provide width. This year, they bring a diverse portfolio of defenders, mostly with familiarity with each other from Bayern Munich. Jonas Hector steps in at left back, a significant upgrade over Benedikt Howedes, the right-footed center back Löw started with in that spot four years ago.
In midfield, Löw has a plethora of options, but mainstays Sami Khedira and Toni Kroos, the tournament’s best deep-lying playmaker, steer the ship. Most countries would panic about the fitness of a playmaker like Mesut Özil, who Löw wouldn’t commit to starting this week when asked. That Löw doesn’t have to play him hurt is a luxury to German depth, which is so good the country won the Confederations Cup last summer with a “B” team. In his stead, German fans can be excited about the prospect of Ilkay Gündoğan, who had a brilliant year under Pep Guardiola at Manchester City. Those types of depth “problems” are a luxury only a couple of teams in Russia have.
How deep are Germany? Leroy Sane was dropped from the side and a few shrugged and blinked, but even Sane acknowledged it as part of the game when you play for Germany.
Löw prefers 4-2-3-1, but he’ll mix and match his formations to suit opponents, which in turn means he’ll utilize his full bench. The Germans can play seamlessly on the break, largely thanks to Kroos, or they can hold the ball and out-think and possess you, while suffocating you with a press when you’re in possession.
Up top, the brilliant Thomas Müller, a goal-scoring, space-finding machine who is also one of the most intelligent footballers alive, will play on the right while Marco Reus, who missed out on the Cup due to injuries in 2014, is the top choice on the left. There’s a debate about who they’ll play at the tip of the spear, but whether it’s Mario Gomez (31 goals in 75 caps) or 22-year-old prospect Timo Werner, Germany has fine options.
All told, a scary team.
The marvelous Mexican captain, Andres Guardado, leads a different sort of El Tri.
Germany’s first opponent is Mexico, who I wrote about at length here.
El Tri are playing with a golden generation of players that won Olympic gold now entering their prime, and led by the wonderful Andres Guardado and Porto’s Hector Herrera, their best player in Brazil in 2014 and even better four years later, coming off a masterful club campaign.
Juan Carlos Osorio, the professorial, American-educated Colombian who has righted the Mexico ship and led the side to its easiest qualification campaign in ages, has relied on smart squad rotations and new nutrition and psychological regimes to try to change the fortunes of a nation that has bowed out in the Round of 16 at their last 6 World Cups.
He prefers to play with four in the back, a switch from the three he used when Rafa Marquez was a younger man. Of the four, Diego Reyes is the Marquez stand-in, a good passer who helps the team build from the back. Collectively, Mexico play a high line to support their pressing style, and Osorio gives Miguel Layun in particular license to get forward, where he helps a pair of quality wide players, Hirving Lozano and Carlos Vela, bomb in after Chicharito occupies defenders centrally.
Mexico’s goalkeeper, Memo Ochoa, was excellent in Brazil and while his distributions aren’t terrific, he is capable of monstrous performances, such as the one he delivered to draw Brazil in 2014.
Sweden are Mexico’s primary competition for second place in the group. There’s no Zlatan, but there is a young and well-organized team led by Janne Andersson in its stead that make life difficult on opponents defensively. In an easier group, they’d be a huge threat to advance, but here, they lack the creativity in attack to legitimately threaten Mexico or Germany. The best player is Emil Forsberg, who does a little bit of everything from the left wing, and had a great year at Leipzig in the Bundesliga. A three-time Swedish midfielder of the year, he has six international goals and nine assists.
South Korea are sure to finish last, but the young Taeguk Warriors don’t lack exciting players, including Son Heung-Min, who can play on either wing or in behind the central forward. If he has time and space, he’s lethal, with a deft first touch, lovely dribbles and blazing speed to get out on the break.
If South Korea are to surprise, they’ll need to win their opener Sunday, against Sweden in ancient Niznhy Novogorod on the banks of the Volga River.
Neil W. Blackmon co-founded TYAC. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.