By Sanjay Sujanthakumar
Last week Concacaf announced a new format for 2022 World Cup qualifying which essentially sends the USMNT straight to the Hex. The US had never failed to reach the Hex in its six editions to date, but it did lose on the road and stumble into anxious, must-win situations in the semifinal round of qualifying for the the 2002, 2014, and 2018 World Cups. With the Concacaf Nations League already clogging the calendar, the four team, double round robin stage (remember that game in Guatemala?) being scrapped is good news. But the Hex starts next September and 6 of the 10 qualifiers are next fall – two per window in September, October, and November – giving Gregg Berhalter about a year to construct a team that can get the job done.
At the press conference after the Catastrophe in Couva, Bruce Arena said, “If we had qualified for the World Cup, there needed to be a number of changes for the World Cup roster.”
Arena’s statement was wildly arrogant, mostly because it conceded he felt the team could qualify for Russia without the best possible group. He knew the team needed reinforcements, such as Weston McKennie or Jonathan Gonzalez, but refused to call them until… after the team qualified. Prior to the final pair of qualifiers against Panama and Trinidad & Tobago, Arena offered this tepid excuse: “We don’t have the luxury of doing that. This is not experimental time. We pretty much have to go with who we have.” Very little of that makes sense, but it’s important because it frames the timeline Berhalter is operating under ahead of the Hex in the autumn of 2020.
Berhalter is not stuck in the same spot as Arena, but suddenly the clock is ticking. For perspective, Berhalter will have only five camps with the entire pool available until qualifying begins.
Here are a few quick thoughts on the timetable for the remainder of this cycle and the big picture for the MNT:
— Qualifying for the Olympics is certainly a priority, but with World Cup qualifying beginning sooner than expected, even if there are simultaneous U23 and senior team camps ahead of Olympic qualifying – that tournament could be as late as next year – Berhalter can’t wait to call up the cream of the youth national team crop who can improve the USMNT immediately. At this point, it’s abundantly clear that Daniel Lovitz, Omar Gonzalez, Wil Trapp, Cristian Roldan, Djordje Mihailovic, and Gyasi Zardes can’t improve the team immediately or long-term. This means the US will do the obvious if need be, and privilege World Cup qualification over Olympic qualification.
— In terms of integrating the next batch, the first name on the list is Paxton Pomykal, who continues to prove with brilliant play in MLS that he could walk into the MNT XI when called. A move to Europe seems inevitable for Pomykal, the question is just where. Ideally for the US, that transfer would happen in the winter, rather than next summer, so the FCD’s starlet will have more than only one preseason to establish himself at his next club before World Cup qualifying. Another issue to monitor: should the US qualify for the Olympics and Pomykal head to Europe next summer, will his club be willing to release him? And if he were to transfer in the summer, would he have to choose between that crucial club preseason and representing his country at the Olympic games, just like Jozy Altidore in 2008. Altidore chose the latter and would regret it.
— Jackson Yueill could also be in the same boat as Pomykal. Matias Almeyda said in May, “I think he’s one of the players with the brightest futures in this league… he is very complete, and I see a big European future for him.” Assuming the right offers are on the table (not from England) and considering the international calendar, it’s preferable Pomykal and Yueill would arrive in Europe during the winter break instead of summer 2020.
— Pomykal’s U-20 teammates who could also help the senior team soon (ex. Richie Ledezma) are already in Europe, and the timing of transfers in the short-term doesn’t seem to apply to them. Loans are always possible, but they’re aiming to earn first team minutes in the upcoming campaign with their current clubs. Hannover duo Chris Gloster and Sebastian Soto are entering the final year of their contracts with the relegated club and while PSV bid for Gloster and were among the clubs interested in Soto, if both stay put in Hannover and play regularly in 2. Bundesliga they’d surely get their chance to impress Berhalter before qualifying.
— The progress of Gloster is particularly important to the MNT. Regardless of the role and responsibilities of his left back – if they’re getting forward or staying to form a back three in possession – Berhalter can’t rely on just Tim Ream next fall. So if it’s a left footed center back capable of defending in wider areas, such as Auston Trusty or Erik-Palmer Brown, or an outside back like Gloster, Nick Lima, or (best case scenario) Ajax’s Sergino Dest, or an MLSer who’s not on the radar at the moment, or we trust our depth at center back enough to try Aaron Long… a year from now there needs to be options at left back. In another perfect world, Timothy Weah earns plenty of club time at Lille, opening the door to even push back Paul Arriola to left back, a spot the player recently said he’d be comfortable at internationally. As short term qualifying fixes go, this would seem to be a good one.
— First team minutes aren’t really the expectation yet for Ulysses Llanez at Wolfsburg. But when it comes to call ups, I’ve always advocated for making an exception or two based on ability, especially if a player who hasn’t broken in to their first team is still an upgrade over anyone on the MNT roster. If/when Weah returns to the fold and Pomykal pushes Pulisic wide, with Paul Arriola and Tyler Boyd also in the mix, winger quality and depth wouldn’t seem like an issue. However, if Pulisic is injured and you take him out of the equation, the US is deficient in danger off the dribble and the overall attacking spark provided by the Pennsylvania native which it still heavily relies on. Llanez is a rare breed who brings the 1 v 1 verve that alone can unbalance a defense whenever the ball is at his feet. Even if he isn’t playing in the Bundesliga, he’s worth a senior team look over Jonathan Lewis.
— I do realize we just failed to qualify… but if the US can qualify comfortably, meaning with at least two games to spare, that would allow Berhalter to experiment for an extended period of time beginning with the 2021 Gold Cup. If the US still needs any results in September 2021, there would be no looking beyond it, and even if qualifying went down to the last day or the intercontinental playoff, there would still be three international windows in 2022 ahead of the World Cup to transition the squad from Concacaf-mode to compete-with-the-world’s-elite-mode. But if the US can punch its ticket to Qatar in March 2021, with the World Cup kicking off in November 2022, that’s a ton of time to keep “gathering information,” in Berhalter’s words, about tactics and personnel. By that point in the cycle, there could be a wave of youngsters (think Geo Reyna, Kobe Hernandez-Foster, another goalkeeper perhaps) waiting to be introduced to the international game, and the ones based in Europe would have an extra preseason plus the first half of their club season in 2022 to impress Berhalter and slide into the World Cup squad.
Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a coach and journalist based in California. He is writing specially for The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @the_Real_Kumar.