Odds on Newcastle United avoiding the drop?
Newcastle United are one of the teams to beat Premier League champions Chelsea, who have suffered only three defeats in the league, this season. After Alan Pardew had managed a 2-1 victory over José Mourinho’s team, it looked like Newcastle were heading for a comfortable top-10 finish. Yet, the entire face of the team changed in a matter of few months after Pardew left to be replaced by John Carver. Since his appointment in January 2015, Carver has managed only two league wins. An incredible run of eight straight victories from March up until May sees Newcastle placed at 6/1 in the Betfair Premier League relegation odds.
There has been a lot of criticism and anger towards Carver, but Newcastle go into the final game of the season against West Ham with their destiny in their own hands. The club are two points ahead of Hull City, who occupy the final relegation spot, and will stay up in the Premier League if they just manage to match Hull’s result. It may sound easy, but it will be extremely tough for fans to place their faith on a team that has taken just one point in almost three months of football.
Hull, Sunderland, and Newcastle are the teams that go into the final day of the season with the threat of relegation. Both Sunderland and Newcastle are two points ahead of Hull, which will give them a lot of comfort. Yet, Newcastle will be aware that they could have easily avoided any nervous moments against West Ham had they been concentrating for the full 90 minutes against QPR last weekend. Despite leading 1-0 against the already relegated QPR, Newcastle failed to secure the three points after falling 2-1 in just nine minutes of football.
The relegation in 2009 hurt the fans immensely, but it helped the club returned much stronger and in a much better financial position. Yet, owner Mike Ashley refusing to take advantage of the club’s good financial position appears to have been one of the reasons for the club’s Premier League survival being put under question once again. Fans have been questioning the decision began leaving more than £30 million in cash reserves at a time when they could have been reinvested in January. The new TV deal means that relegation could potentially incur losses of more than £70 million if a team drops to the Championship.
The gamble to place Carver in charge of the team till the end of the season may backfire quite spectacularly. He has been complaining a lot about the resources at his disposal, but a return of just two wins from 15 matches since he was announced as the manager till the end of the campaign. One of those victories came in the first match after he was confirmed as the temporary solution. Newcastle had spent almost a month searching for a replacement for Pardew. The club appeared to be in an extremely comfortable position when Carver was appointed. After all, they were 11th in the table and had just managed a 3-0 win over relegation threatened Hull City.
Will the gamble in putting Carver in charge prove fatal?
A drop into the second division of English football becomes much more serious when considering that Newcastle and West Ham are only a handful of teams that have managed to get back into the Premier League in the first attempt. Several relegated clubs end up mid-table in the Championship or falter in the play-offs. There have even been cases like Wigan and Wolves who have suffered drops to the League One almost immediately.
Such is the death trap called the Championship. Even though the parachute payments will increase because of the new TV deal, the lost revenue in terms of both TV money and sponsorship income will be astronomical.
Newcastle were able to get back straight up last time around due to the presence of quality players in the ranks. It would be hard to see the likes of Sissoko and Cisse staying at the club if they are playing in the second division.
Newcastle are 7/10 to get a win against West Ham. The possibility of a draw is given odds of 11/4. Newcastle have the worst goal difference amongst the trio of Sunderland and Hull. They will be able to feel safe only with a win. A few weeks ago, Hull would have daunted at the prospect of facing Manchester United on the final day. After having seen Louis Van Gaal’s men effectively give up on the third spot following a 1-1 draw with Arsenal, Hull will feel confident about getting a victory at the KC stadium.
A home match in the final game would have been the last thing Carver would have wished for in such circumstances. There will undoubtedly be nervousness amongst the fans and there is a danger of this transcending to the players as well.