The Arnos Vale Cricket Ground from a distance. It will host a World Cup qualifier today.
Neil W. Blackmon and Jon Levy
For the second consecutive cycle under manager Jurgen Klinsmann, the US enter the final weekend of the Fourth Round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying needing at least one win to secure passage to the final qualifying round, affectionately called “The Hex.”
Last cycle, the US actually fell behind Guatemala in the decisive game, before storming back to win in Kansas City and earn passage into the final CONCACAF qualifying round. This time around, the US sit second in their group, and could need as many as 4 points to assure a spot in The Hex.
Our detailed breakdown of all the weekend’s qualification scenarios can be read here.
For the Yanks, the scenarios are simple:
- If US win tonight and Trinidad and Tobago defeat Guatemala, the US advance to the HEX.
- If US win tonight and Guatemala defeat Trinidad and Tobago, the US will enter the September 6 game against Trinidad and Tobago needing at least a draw to advance
- If US draw or lose tonight, the US can’t be eliminated but would need a win over Trinidad and Tobago September 6 to advance
Coming off a surprise 4th place finish this summer at the Copa América Centenario, the US should enter these matches with confidence and self-belief. But under Jurgen Klinsmann, the Americans have stumbled in the Caribbean before. The US lost to Jamaica on the road in the 2014 World Cup cycle and, later in the cycle, needed a tremendous chipped ball by Alan Gordon and incredible athleticism from Eddie Johnson to win in the final minute at Antigua and Barbuda.
That match, on a narrow cricket pitch that makes Yankee Stadium look like a Greek agora, is similar to the converted cricket field the US will play on today at Arnos Vale Stadium in Kingstown, St. Vincent and the Grenadines (3:30 PM, BEIN SPORTS). Couple the pitch with a sold-out crowd and the fact the US will be playing its first meaningful soccer game in over 5 years without the services of Michael Bradley (yellow card suspension), Jermaine Jones (injury), and Clint Dempsey (irregular heartbeat), and this is unlikely to be the stroll to three points many US fans circled it as when the qualification match schedule was released.
The usual- albeit abridged- TYAC preview, then.
Series: United States lead 1-0. The Yanks won the first meeting between the two sides in St. Louis on a chilly night last November, posting a 6-1 victory to begin their World Cup qualification campaign with 3 points. Simply reaching this round was a tremendous accomplishment for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, an archipelago of 32 islands with a population roughly the size of Fargo, North Dakota (115,000). Of the 12 CONCACAF sides to reach this stage, the “Vincy Heat” are the one nation eliminated, and in this their final home fixture, they’d love nothing more than to earn a historic result against a desperate United States.
Weather: Hot. 89 degrees with humidity around 75 percent. The stadium sits just off the Caribbean Sea, and their will likely be a warm Caribbean summer breeze, but this is a game where a FIFA water break is probable and player cramping probable. Fabian Johnson, who enjoys the gentle autumn weather in Bavaria, and has lamented to TYAC that he “can never get comfortable in heat”, will be miserable. Fabian Johnson Misery Index: 9.
Jon Levy on What to Watch For From St. Vincent and the Grenadines:
For the most part these guys don’t play their club soccer at high levels. Most have dayjobs and some, like the Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens, look more like accountants than athletes or coaches. Of course, they might be accountants, which is the fun part.
They’re not especially notable at either end of the pitch, and I’ll spare you the overdone borderline racist platitudes about “sheer physicality,” or whatever the buzz-phrase is this week.
This is not a great team.
But they’ve probably already overachieved just to get this far.
Top twelve in CONCACAF is nowhere near a given for Saint Vincent (or the Grenadines!), and it’s taken good solid coaching to get them here. I don’t want to oversell it. Teams aren’t crawling over each other to poach manager Cornelius Huggins, but he’s got this team playing a style that seeks to minimize mistakes on their own end, while taking advantage of opponents’ slip-ups at the other. Yes, I’m oversimplifying, but I’d rather do that than try to convince you SV & G’s kits are really The Emperor’s New Clothes.
We saw this team take advantage of an American defensive miscue last fall (first minute of this video).
A moment like that, mixed with half a measure of bunker defense, and a splash of CONCACAF road/ref juju could be real bad news for a fragile USMNT psyche. It’s up to Jurgen’s boys to make sure this match isn’t close late in the second half.
Neil W. Blackmon on What To Watch For From The United States:
I’ll spare the more lengthy tactical discussion about the US and how things trended at the Copa América until the Trinidad and Tobago match next week.
In part, that is because the US have some key absences today that may force tactical changes. But perhaps more simply, that’s because the US doesn’t need to do complicated things in Kingstown this afternoon. They just need to protect against the counter and make sure they have the tactical nous to get the ball to the forwards up top and find a goal. The US have one job: win the game. How that happens, at least today, is less important than the macro-level mission.
Now, there are two extremely interesting developments.
It has been nearly a decade since the US went into a critical game without either Dempsey or Bradley on the field.
First, as the introduction noted: the US are without three prize horses in this match. For the first time in the Klinsmann era, the US enter a meaningful soccer game without at least one of Michael Bradley, Jermaine Jones and Clint Dempsey on the pitch. In most situations, the US have had at least two of those players on the field. And the results when even one has been missing: a lopsided, uncompetitive defeat in Costa Rica without Michael Bradley, the embarrassing Copa América semifinal loss to Argentina without Jones– have been dismal.
There’s an argument to be made that the US sacrifices too much tactically to accommodate the aging Clint Dempsey. It was one that generated a host of hot takes in the build up to the Copa this summer, including the fatuous criticism that Dempsey, the player responsible for more than half of all American goals in competitive soccer matches since the beginning of the 2014 World Cup, shouldn’t start at that tournament. Others made the short-sighted argument Dempsey should be benched following the US’s opening game loss to top five global side Colombia.
All Dempsey did in response was score 3 of the 7 American goals in the competition, including one in the quarterfinal win over Ecuador, where he was also instrumental in setting up Gyasi Zardes’s game winner.
The debate over Dempsey’s future role with the United States is a useful one moving forward, and the US will have to adjust to the veteran’s absence long-term- (perhaps faster if the irregular heartbeat issue doesn’t resolve itself). But forcing the most creative player America has ever produced into early retirement isn’t something the US have planned for short-term and, given the player’s production, it probably isn’t in the side’s best interest either. Whatever your take in that debate, there’s no question the US haven’t played as critical a set of games as they face in the next five days without Clint Dempsey in a long time. That’s a heady challenge, as Jurgen Klinsmann acknowledged this week.
“Every time one of your leader players is missing, it’s a bummer,” Klinsmann said at a training session midweek. “In [Clint’s] case we wish him only the best. He has to go through these testings now and, hopefully, he gets cleared as soon as possible. Not having Clint is not good.”
In Dempsey’s absence, the US have a red hot and healthy Jozy Altidore, admittedly a luxury they haven’t had in tournament play in three years and one that has forced Dempsey to remain incredibly productive. And while this helps, having Altidore and an improving, in-form Bobby Wood does not, as some have argued, alleviate the pain of Dempsey’s absence entirely.
Who they pair together remains the question of the day.
With Dempsey, the US could settle comfortably into a 4-4-2 and rely on Dempsey to drop back, receive the ball and wait on help while Bobby Wood occupied deep defenders. The US have no like for like replacement for Dempsey in that regard, even with Altidore back in the fold. And the only player that might have been comfortable doing that is Gyasi Zardes, who is better as a CF facing the goal and who Klinsmann seems to prefer on a wing. Zardes is out for the year with a broken foot, and also unavailable.
So the question becomes about who to pair with Altidore. The Toronto FC forward has been among the best players in MLS since the Copa break- on my player of the week ballot more than once and showing individual technical improvements in keeping with a player just 26. Altidore can hold the ball up better than anyone else in the US pool, has been strong and confident on the ball, and has improved dramatically as a passer playing alongside Sebastian Giovinco.
Those are all great things- but there’s not a genuine complement. Wood, a CF Klinsmann is trying to jam into a winger’s hole, isn’t a player that wants to drop deep and help keep possession. At the Copa América, where Wood was by and large excellent, the moments where he was not came when he received and was asked to keep the ball away from the final third.
This also complicates matters because Wood is very much an imperfect option if Klinsmann decides to play a 4-3-3, which he did to mixed results this summer. Altidore can’t and won’t play on a wing, Morris struggled on one in Seattle, and Zardes is out with an injury. Perhaps one of the younger players can fill in: Paul Arriola, a genuine winger who starts in Mexico; Rubio Rubin, a versatile attacking player who features in Holland; Christian Pulisic, the Dortmund youngster and starlet of many American hearts. But Jurgen Klinsmann has shown an obdurate tendency to stick with his old guard in big moments, and today is undoubtedly a big moment. So expect the US to play an imperfect 4-4-2, which leads us to…
A sensible, while unlikely, US deployment.
The midfield questions.
With Bradley suspended for cards and Jones out, the Americans will be forced to go with a drastically different midfield look than they have in a competitive game in several years. The debate over whether Bradley and Jones work well as a pair should be over: they don’t. But they are two players you’d like to get on the pitch together if you can figure out a tactical setup that enables that with minimal weakness. On the one hand, having them both out represents a chance to look forward. On the other hand, Klinsmann’s inclination to play the old guard in critical moments almost assures that the 3 man midfield or two man central pairing many US fans long for won’t take the pitch this afternoon.
Kyle Beckerman is in the camp, and will likely start, though he shouldn’t. As good as Beckerman was in the 2014 cycle, he’s older now, slower moving laterally and continues to struggle with pace in the channels. That’s the one commodity St. Vincent and the Grenadines have and Klinsmann should shore that weakness by sitting the veteran Real Salt Lake man. Graham Zusi seems likely to start opposite Ale Bedoya, though Klinsmann could tuck Bedoya in, playing him in the center with Beckerman, and slot Nagbe out wide.
The smartest play? Inserting Sacha Kljestan into the center or the ten role and letting him serve as the intermediary between the US center and Wood and Altidore. Any combination on the wing at this point- Nagbe and Zusi, Zusi and Bedoya, Nagbe and Bedoya– can provide width and service to the two big targets in the center. Zusi, who has been playing fullback for Sporting Kansas City, probably gets the call because of his industry and ability to help shield an overlapping fullback. Bedoya is as close to a starting eleven lock as the US have right now, outside Michael Bradley when he’s available.
Reborn in New York, can Sacha make it anywhere?
Neil W. Blackmon on the US Player to Watch: Sacha Kljestan, MF, New York Red Bulls
The easier route would be to pick a player guaranteed to see the field today- Jozy Altidore or Bobby Wood. After all, we spent a few paragraphs noting that in the prior three years, the US hasn’t had much goal-scoring production in meaningful matches beyond Clint Dempsey.
But I’m going the tougher route. Kljestan was omitted from this team originally until an injury to John Brooks of all people resulted in his late inclusion. Kljestan, out of the national team for over two years, told ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle this week he didn’t even believe it when Klinsmann texted him Sunday night to tell him he’d been called into the side.
He should have been in the team a while ago, of course. Kljestan, who has 46 caps for the Yanks dating back to 2007, is an accomplished player who has played in the UEFA Champions League (for Anderlecht in Belgium). Under Bob Bradley, Kljestan was productive if not spectacular in the double pivot role alongside Michael Bradley in 2010 qualifying, but he was left out of the 2010 World Cup side, something that pains and motivates him to this day. And despite a few camps and games, has always seemed just outside of manager Jurgen Klinsmann’s plan.
But Kljestan, who returned to MLS in 2015, signing with New York Red Bulls for a fee that compared to many of his US mates is peanuts, has earned his way back. Playing with Dax McCarty, Kljestan was instrumental in the NYRB march to the Supporters Shield and he’s been even better this season. Kljestan carried the Red Bulls offensively through early season struggles and has the team staged for a strong playoff run. With fifteen assists, he seems poised to smash the 19 assist mark that is second best all-time in a single MLS season, and though he won’t touch Carlos Valderrama’s 26 assist year with the Tampa Bay Mutiny in 2001, MLS is a better league by miles now, making Kljestan’s accomplishments arguably more impressive.
One of the larger problems throughout Kljestan’s US career has been deployment- Klinsmann has had no real idea what to do with him consistently and Bob Bradley’s deployment in the double pivot, while better than Jurgen’s, was also ill-suited for Kljestan’s strengths. In New York, Jesse Marsch has asked Kljestan to play the number ten position, and Kljestan has done it better than anyone in MLS, save perhaps Diego Valeri.
For a US team starved for technical, attacking playmakers in the center, and about to enter a key qualifying match without Michael Bradley, the decision for Jurgen Klinsmann to call Sacha in should have been simple.
For whatever reason, it wasn’t. Perhaps, given this chance, Kljestan can make the case it should be simple moving forward.
Oalex Anderson has already found the net once against the US. Can he do it again today?
Jon Levy on the St. Vincent and the Grenadines Player to Watch: Oalex Anderson (Seattle Sounders)
Anderson was one of two strikers I highlighted the last time these teams met. And he scored; so hey, I was right. Granted I did break my own rule for reasons beyond memory, featuring two players instead of one in this section. So maybe only give me half credit? That said, this time I’m featuring Anderson again, but with different rationale. Observe:
Last November Tevin Slater was the red-hot SV & G striker the Yanks had to keep an eye on. He was scoring for fun with the national team, so he was set to garner the most attention from the American defense. That meant that Seattle’s USL duo of Anderson and Myron Samuel might just have an opportunity or two to get loose and punish the US. Well that’s just what Oalex Anderson did, scoring an early goal to put the US in the hole and scare the crap out of American fans who were already pretty certain the sky was falling.
So how did Anderson follow up his brief big moment with the national team? He got the call from the big club and upgraded from USL’s S2 to MLS’s Seattle Sounders, then immediately established himself as an impact sub. No, he wasn’t scoring goals, but changing the game with an injection of pace as opposing defenses began to tire. That’s a thing. Ask Brek Shea or… Jermaine Pennant? Yeah, we’re going with mid-late 2000’s Liverpool Jermaine Pennant. Bring him on when Dirk Kuyt gets tired. But Dirk kinda runs for days. What was I writing about?
So this time around Oalex Anderson won’t be overlooked. He’s already got a goal against our guys, and he’s enjoyed the steepest ascent of any Vincentian (love that term) player since that first match. He’s also shown he’s got the speed and competitiveness to make the difference in a match even when he’s not being overlooked. We’ll be watching Oalex. Hopefully Geoff Cameron will too.
Prediction: United States 2, St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0. A scoreless first half gives way to US changes in the second half, and Jozy Altidore puts the US in position to advance to the HEX tonight, depending on proceedings in Port-of-Spain.