Weston McKennie and Christian Pulisic led a USMNT youth movement in 2020.
The USMNT thrashed El Salvador 6-0 in Fort Lauderdale last Wednesday night. The newfound depth of the pool was on full display and it’ll be essential heading into a very busy 2021 for the program.
Here are a few brief takeaways from the last three friendlies and a big picture analysis of how young the World Cup squad is shaping up to be, with context and a couple of audacious comparisons.
– Depth will be critical in qualifying but if John Brooks and Tyler Adams can stay healthy we should cruise to Qatar without turbulence.
With the emerging attacking options, there is less reason to be worried about Pulisic’s durability issues. If he’s not available, the drop off at winger shouldn’t be the reason we have an issue getting to the World Cup. Jordan Morris, is at the very least, a lethal LW against CONCACAF level competition. Gio Reyna can score world class goals from the left side if he’s deployed there and drifting in, and there’s other emerging attacking options. Pulisic isn’t replaceable, but Brooks and Adams definitely aren’t as of today.
– The evolving CB competition
Brooks overshadowed Miazga’s sweet moments of distribution against Wales only to see his best moments offset by Miazga’s performance vs Panama. If no center back emerges from the pack based on form to partner with Brooks, the first tiebreaker could be speed and that likely keeps Aaron Long, who Berhalter also trusts from a leadership standpoint, in the picture. But in 2021 Chris Richards and/or Mark McKenzie can take the next step in their career by becoming regulars in Europe, potentially sliding into the senior team eleven.
– While he wasn’t tested defensively Wednesday, Mark McKenzie’s distribution is mouthwatering.
We can’t earnestly evaluate McKenzie or Yueill as a starter yet, or suggest they are anything beyond options to use should Tyler Adams falter, at this point, until they are under more pressure against better opponents, whether that’s at the club or international level. But it’s a pleasure to watch them pass the ball, and exciting the US is developing these types of options as depth pieces.
– In possession, both fullbacks bombing forward is an encouraging, expected development considering the ever increasing options there, particularly on the right side.
Reggie Cannon on the right and Dest on the left is currently the optimal solution, and it’s a wild testament to what MLS Academies are doing right that Cannon’s replacement at FC Dallas is already being linked to bigger European clubs than the ones Cannon is already being linked to after he just transferred to a European club. That Reynolds could, in theory, push Cannon for a senior team starting spot before the World Cup blows my mind. But again, it’s the ever-increasing accumulation of depth that is astounding given where the program was a cycle ago.
– The willingness to press appears here to stay, the flaccid 4-4-2 very much in the rearview mirror.
Other than March and maybe the Olympics, the US won’t have the chance to assess its press against a legit opponent besides Mexico. If/when that happens next year, that’ll be interesting, as Berhalter will be attempting to press on the road in CONCACAF. Effectively pressing would be the beautiful evolution of the USMNT’s identity, built on strengths of spirit, speed and athleticism. If Gregg Berhalter can successfully transition the USMNT defensively from never-say-die to let’s (occasionally) kill anyone in their own half – balancing that with disorganizing the opponent with the ball – that could quiet those clamoring for Jesse Marsch next cycle. Of course, a second cycle for any international manager is dangerous, but let’s not dive down that rabbit hole…
Tyler Adams and a young United States seem poised to make noise in 2022. But how much noise?
HOW FAR CAN THIS TEAM GO IN A WORLD CUP?
This is a question that’s beginning to surface outside of just the American soccer bubble. Let me qualify (pun intended) this part by acknowledging it’s impossible to project a World Cup roster two years in advance, and equally foolish to set expectations for the tournament before the draw. At TYAC, we try not to traffic false hope on the Internet, as tempting as that is when it feels like we’re suddenly teeming with U23 talent. But we’re also about to flip the calendar to 2021. Qatar isn’t in the distant future and it’s fair to wonder just how far such a young squad could go.
Prior to the 2014 World Cup, Jurgen Klinsmann told Sam Borden, “We cannot win this World Cup, because we are not at that level yet. For us, we have to play the game of our lives seven times to win the tournament. Realistically, it is not possible.” Klinsmann’s comments were seized and criticized by the media. It was perceived as culturally tone deaf to tell the American public to defuse their dream of miracles on grass, but the reality is Klinsmann was being brutally honest. More important, he was right.
Ahead of the Hex in his second cycle, Klinsmann said, “We set an ambitious goal for the 2018 World Cup — to reach the semifinals. And, if we start with the end goal in mind, we obviously want to win the World Cup one day. There are huge challenges, and it will take a lot of hard work. But things are definitely moving in the right direction. Our goals are challenging but achievable.”
Right before the 2018 World Cup, Klinsmann claimed that had he not been replaced by Bruce Arena the USMNT would’ve been in Russia and could’ve “realistically” advanced to the semifinal. Here, Klinsmann was wrong.
Qualifying has no bearing on the big dance, sure. But during his five year tenure, at its best Klinsmann didn’t elevate the USMNT beyond being what Alexi Lalas accurately described as a “better version of itself,” which at that point, with that pool, with that tactical (or less than tactical) approach, almost certainly didn’t translate to reaching the final four of a World Cup. However – to borrow a Klinsmann buzzword – could that benchmark be applicable to such a young USMNT in two years? How have the other youngest squads fared at recent World Cups?
In 2018, the average age of the squad of two of the semifinalists – England and France – was 26, tied for second youngest in the tournament (but we’re going to leave the world champions out of the 2022 comparison because the US is just not there yet). In 2010, Germany made the semis in South Africa with the third youngest squad at an average age of 25.
For a better idea of the level of these sides, these were the first choice lineups for Germany in 2010 and England in 2018, with an asterisk indicating that on the day of their group stage opener, the player’s birthday that year was yet to come.
2010 World Cup, Germany XI: Manuel Neuer (24), Philipp Lahm (26)*, Per Mertesacker (25)*, Arne Friedrich (31), Jérôme Boateng (21*), Bastian Schweinsteiger (25*), Sami Khedira (23), Mesut Özil (21*), Thomas Müller (20*), Miroslav Klose (32), Lukas Podolski (25)
Toni Kroos – then 20 – wasn’t first choice for Jogi Löw in 2010. The average age of this lineup was 24.8.
Sami KHEDIRA (GER), Jerome BOATENG (Deutschland), Mesut OEZIL (Deutschland) bei der Nationalhymne.
Spiel 59 – Viertelfinale: Argentinien – Deutschland , Kapstadt, 03.07.2010–
FIFA – Fussball Weltmeisterschaft 2010 in Suedafrika.
Match 59 – Quarterfinal: Argentina – Germany , Cape Town, 03th July 2010–
FIFA- Soccer World Championship 2010 in South Africa.
Germany’s young stars Sami Khedira, Jerome Boateng and Mesut Özil at the 2010 World Cup. Boateng’s move to Manchester City was agreed to ahead of the World Cup, while Real Madrid bought both Khedira and Ozil later that summer.
England’s starting lineup in Russia 2018.
2018 World Cup, England XI: Jordan Pickford (24), Kieran Trippier (27*), Kyle Walker (28), John Stones (24), Harry Maguire (25), Ashley Young (32*), Jordan Henderson (28), Jesse Lingard (25*), Dele Alli (22), Raheem Sterling (23*), Harry Kane (24*)
The average age of this lineup was 25.6.
Contrast those teams with a projected squad for the USMNT in 2022, with all ages reflecting 2022. Remember this is a rough accounting of a potential 2022 lineup, as it is impossible to know precisely what that team would look like. The point is we can evaluate age from potential members of the pool.
GK: Zack Steffen (27), Matt Turner (28), Ethan Horvath (27)
We settled on Horvath for the third keeper as the median between younger and older options and because if he is getting games with his club, wherever he’s based, he’s likely to make the cut.
DEF: Sergiño Dest (22), Reggie Cannon (24), Bryan Reynolds, (21), Antonee Robinson (25), John Brooks (29), Chris Richards (22), Mark McKenzie (23), Aaron Long (30)
Reynolds hasn’t been capped yet (definitely could’ve been Wednesday if he was available) but his ceiling is sky high and his imminent transfer will confirm that. Araujo and Vines, the fullbacks Wednesday, will be 21 and 23 respectively by Qatar. George Bello – who also could’ve made his MNT debut Wednesday had he been available – will be 20 and has the ability to leapfrog every left footed left back before the World Cup if he stays healthy. Tim Ream and DeAndre Yedlin would raise the average age at their positions. Ream will be 35 and while valued for his leadership and versatility, if LB is more of an attacking role the latter is diminished. If Richards and McKenzie are on the plane, whoever else the center back competition yields won’t drastically lift the average age there. Ream is a distant possibility also because Michael Bradley, who will be 35 in 2022, will be difficult to usher out for his leadership alone.
MID: Tyler Adams (23), Johnny Cardoso (21), Yunus Musah (19*), Weston McKennie (24), Sebastian Lletget (30) OR Michael Bradley (35), Giovanni Reyna (20)
If Musah commits to the USMNT that’s significant in terms of age. Jackson Yueill instead of Cardoso lifts the average age – Yueill will be 25 – but don’t sleep on James Sands at the 6, who will be 22 and whose versatility could also be enticing. The injury histories of Sands, Paxton Pomykal (22*), and now Richy Ledezma (22) tearing his ACL are a sober reminder of why we need depth and injuries in general are why – as Taylor Twellman understandably opined on air Wednesday – imagining the squad for 2026 is premature. Lletget is versatile and consistent – Berhalter was effusive in his praise for the Californian in the postgame presser, lauding his quality but also locker room presence – and while there will probably be younger options like Brenden Aaronson (22), I’m not dropping him just yet. Michael Bradley doesn’t play Lletget’s position, but he is at the top of Berhalter’s circle of trust and a veteran leader is almost assured to make the trip to Qatar. Reyna is listed here instead of forward, but if he’s (nominally) on the wing there could be an extra spot for said and unsaid younger options.
FWD: Christian Pulisic (24), Jordan Morris (28), Josh Sargent (22) Gyasi Zardes (31), Paul Arriola (27), Ulysses Llanez (21)
Daryl Dike, Sebastian Soto, Ayo Akinola and Nicholas Gioacchini will all be 22 and the average age of the group would drop if one of them can beat out Zardes. Jozy Altidore will be 33 and would raise the average age. I’m not betting on the injury prone Altidore being an option and at the moment I’m not betting against Zardes making it.
Counting Gio as a winger, or another younger winger like Tim Weah (22) or Konrad (21) rather than Arriola would affect the average age, but Arriola has clearly carved out a role in this group, in the locker room and on the field. There is no winger in the pool better suited to diligently track back, running like his feet are on fire to defend for dear life (hopefully to protect a late lead), than Paul Arriola. Chris Mueller will be 26.
The average age of this squad (including Lletget and not Bradley) is 24.7. That’s 3.1 years younger than the 2014 squad and 2.1 years younger than the 2010 squad.
It’s poised to be one of, if not the youngest at the first ever World Cup in the Middle East. The average age of this XI, arguably the best one as of today – Steffen, Cannon, Richards, Brooks, Dest, Adams, McKennie, Reyna, Pulisic, Sargent, Morris – is 24.1.
This is an educated guess that will, to some degree, be wrong. But I think in terms of age it’s a reasonable, objective, and perhaps conservative projection. It’s truly tough to see the average age climbing substantially in any group and not for the starting lineup. The pool is still getting even younger and there’s more downward pressure percolating on the average age than in the other direction for 2022.
Will that be a top four team in the world in two years? No. Could it reach the semis? That’s a completely different question, but with a bit of context it’s not at all crazy to believe that’s possible.
The US was VAR away from having a penalty kick to equalize – and be a man up – vs Germany in the 2002 quarterfinals with 40 minutes left in a match in which it was probably the better team anyway. When the US won its group in South Africa in 2010, there was a sense that a relatively navigable path to the semis had opened up – Ghana and then Uruguay would stand in the way – but we couldn’t clear the first hurdle (with an average age of 24, Ghana had the youngest squad in South Africa and should’ve been another team in the semis to compare to).
No one would trade the delirium of Landon Donvan’s goal vs Algeria for anything, but if there was VAR then too and Maurice Edu’s goal vs Slovenia stands, the US doesn’t need a physically and emotionally draining win vs Algeria and maybe has more in the tank for the knockout rounds. Regardless, the point isn’t to trap the imagination in VAR-based hypotheticals (and maybe there’s moments I’m forgetting where it would’ve hurt the USMNT). The point is that there’s the inevitable element of luck necessary – with the draw or officiating or other variables – to make a deep run that we didn’t have enough of then. But the team for 2022 should be indisputably better.
Just for reference, comparing that potential 2022 USMNT to those German and English lineups on paper, what immediately stands out is their striker (Neuer wasn’t a God yet in 2010). But besides that, I don’t think these comparisons could be a stretch, especially with the England side that was blessed by their draw.
The Germany lineup sounds intimidating now but keep in mind that even they were not immune from a bit of good fortune, and how early in their careers it was. Yes, Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Müller and Klose were with Bayern Munich. But Neuer (Schalke), Boateng (Hamburg), Khedira (Stuttgart), and Özil (Bremen) didn’t graduate to bigger clubs until after the 2010 World Cup (Neuer moved to Bayern in 2011). Podolski returned to Köln from Bayern a year before the tournament.
On Wednesday, Twellman also talked about World Cup contenders having their core play at least two World Cups together young and in their prime. Indeed, 8 of Germany’s starters in 2010 – Neuer, Lahm, Boateng, Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Özil, Müller, Klose – were also in the lineup in 2014, by which time Toni Kroos had broken through.
Spain’s triumph in 2010 was fueled almost entirely by starters from 2006 (ages in 2010): Iker Casillas (29), Sergio Ramos (24), Carlos Puyol (32), Xabi Alonso (29*), Xavi (30), David Villa (28*), Fernando Torres (26), Cesc Fabregas (22*). Two unforgettable exceptions: Iniesta – 26 in 2010 – was a reserve in 2006, and 2010 was Sergio Busquets’ first World Cup. Busquets turned 22 five days after winning it.
France had five holdovers from their 2014 lineup to 2018 in their lineup (ages in 2018): Hugo Lloris (32*), Raphael Varane (25), Paul Pogba (25), Blaise Matuidi (31), and Antoine Griezmann (27). Olivier Giroud was a reserve in 2014 but replaced the exiled Karim Benzema in Russia, and turned 32 later that year.
Looking back at the USMNT’s retention of starters (lineups in World Cups can obviously vary but for the sake of this comparison, the criteria for starter is starting multiple games) from tournament to tournament, there were four holdovers from 2010 to 2014 (ages when the 2014 tournament began): Tim Howard (35), Michael Bradley (26*), Clint Dempsey (31), and Jozy Altidore (24*). Landon Donovan (32) could’ve been the fifth.
There were five from 2006 to 2010 (ages when the 2010 tournament began): Steve Cherundolo (31), Carlos Bocanegra (31), Clint Dempsey (27), Landon Donovan (28), and Oguchi Onyewu (28). There were seven from 2002 to 2006: Eddie Pope (32*), Pablo Mastroeni (29*), Claudio Reyna (32*), Eddie Lewis (32), Damarcus Beasley (26), Landon Donovan (24) and Brian McBride (he turned 34 during the tournament). The US has had continuity, but not sufficient, essential elite European club pedigree. If we had qualified for Russia it would’ve been a pronounced problem given the generational gap in the pool, and Pulisic would’ve been alone in that category.
Now our stars with that impressive, prerequisite club pedigree – if they’re fit, at least five will be expected to feature in the Champions League knockout rounds – are, even by the global standard, very young. Apart from the goalie, there’s a real chance that the core of the USMNT is totally under 28 in 2026. According to U.S. News, “Italy is the only team to win a World Cup with an average player age older than 28 and “no country has ever won a World Cup with fewer than two players older than 30 on their rosters.” You can’t rule out players over 30 contributing to the USMNT when the World Cup is on home soil in six years, but you also can’t rule out younger players not in the pool yet (Caden Clark, Moses Nyeman, etc.) or not on the radar right now having a role. USYNT nerds are convinced the latter is inevitable.
I agree with Twellman that injuries and other factors can easily derail development and a career (Twellman understands that better than almost anyone and belongs in the National Soccer Hall of Fame, in part due to his success in raising concussion awareness and education), and 2026 is so far away that we should keep our feet on the ground. But even Gregg Berhalter, who tends to reflexively keep the optimism about this potential golden generation cautious in his comments to the media, didn’t exactly temper expectations about 2026. “We think we can build a team that can really perform well and potentially shock the world in 2026.” Before a pre-World Cup friendly vs Turkey kicked off in New Jersey in 2014, the American Outlaws raised this glorious tifo.
The New American Dream @AmericanOutlaws tifo for #USAvTUR pic.twitter.com/SM0IXHR2fp
— U.S. Soccer Men's National Team (@USMNT) June 1, 2014
It’s antithetical to being American to not let ourselves dream that on a summer night in New Jersey in 2026, humid with anticipation, we can win the World Cup. Of course, there’s no guarantee this glittering core will click immediately and capture the attention of the country with a semifinal or final appearance. Croatia’s world class core in Russia didn’t do it on their first, second, or third try in a major tournament, and for what it’s worth, Croatia didn’t qualify for the World Cup eight years before they were in the final (they very nearly didn’t get to Russia too).
Time is on the side of our new nucleus.
The USMNT will go to its moon one day, and the Apollo starting 11 may arrive sooner than we could have ever imagined.
Lastly, Rest in Peace Daryl Grove.
I started regularly listening to the Total Soccer Show in the aftermath of Couva, when the USMNT was rubble, and I was amazed at how Daryl and Taylor maintained such a warm, upbeat, witty and humorous conversation about soccer – whether it was the hollowest of USMNT friendlies or the American soccer presidential election, or the game beyond our borders – being based in the US following what felt like American soccer’s Armageddon. By all accounts, including TYAC friends here that knew him, Daryl was as good and genuine a person as he sounded like to so many of us who never had the pleasure of meeting him but felt like we actually knew him really well.
The United States has been losing a mentally numbing amount of people daily due to Covid. The total so far is stunning. The world – including the soccer world – has lost some legends this year. What we’ll remember about this year is loss. Daryl was a legend the American soccer community will never forget.
Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a longtime TYAC contributor. He coaches soccer at the University of Southern California. Follow him on Twitter @tha_real_kumar.