Neil W. Blackmon
The Copa América Centenario begins tonight in Santa Clara, California. The tournament, which will last just over three weeks, is the largest men’s international soccer tournament held on American soil since the 1994 World Cup.
This special event, held in the United States as opposed to its traditional location in South America, commemorates the 100th anniversary of the first Copa América. The field features five of the world’s top ten teams, according to the latest FIFA rankings, including the United States’ first opponent, Colombia, who are ranked fourth. The Copa will be televised in more than 160 countries across the world, with Univision Network and FOX family of networks broadcasting all of the games live in the United States. In addition, all of the matches will also be available live on Futbol de Primera Radio in the United States.
The build-up to the tournament has been strange, given the fact that the tournament is expected to draw over a million fans across ten American cities. First, the tournament starts a week or two earlier than summer international competitions traditionally begin. This potentially impacts coverage, given that American sporting staples like the NBA and Stanley Cup Finals are just beginning. Second, even from a soccer perspective, there is competition. Overlapping with the European championship that begins June 10, the Copa marks the beginning a furious, saturated summer of soccer that will conclude in Brazil with the Olympic games, where the USWNT will aim to win another gold medal a summer after winning the federation’s third World Cup. Finally, there’s the general malaise surrounding the US Men’s National Team and its program over the last eighteen months. A home tournament at this stage in US Soccer’s progress would, one might argue, be perceived as more momentous if expectations for the US were higher. Here, they are not, and low expectation begets low anticipation. This has been reflected in the ticket sales at some of the venues, where MLS sides like Orlando and Seattle can fill large stadiums but the Copa has had to scramble to increase capacity, even with global powers like Argentina on the schedule.
Given these factors, excitement for the Copa has lagged, with little buzz surrounding the event and the perception by some participating countries that the competition is more a money-grab by the participating international federations, CONMEBOL and CONCACAF, than it is a genuine celebration of football. The excitement for these types of events usually builds in swells, with anticipation and expectation and layer after layer of coverage blending together like a simmering stew. Such is the case with a EURO or World Cup. This Copa has been different, with many fans and journalists paying very little mind until the last two weeks, when late-arriving coverage and analysis has flooded print, web and social media like an outlet mall at the holidays.
And yet, there’s plenty to be excited about. After all, this is the largest men’s international soccer tournament held on American soil in two decades. The competition will feature many of the world’s superstars, including its best player, Argentina’s Lionel Messi. It will provide maligned US manager Jurgen Klinsmann an opportunity to alter the seemingly rudderless course the US Men’s National Team and its program have been charting over the last eighteen months, win some games and build momentum for the remainder of the 2018 World Cup cycle. And it will provide a showing ground for America’s top domestic league, MLS, a now rapidly growing and ascending league that didn’t exist the last time the US hosted this large a tournament. What’s more, and maybe most important, it will provide an incredible opportunity for a young generation to see soccer players and teams at the highest level close to home, a gift that paid dividends in 1994 and now, with millions more kids playing soccer, should deliver a payload again.
With this in mind, we at TYAC thought up 100 reasons to watch the Copa celebrate its 100th birthday, starting tonight in Santa Clara.
Can Messi deliver Argentina its first senior side trophy since 1993?
Favorites
World Cup runner-up (1) Argentina are here, with the best player in the world, (2) Leo Messi, and their embarrassment of other attacking riches, including Manchester City’s (3) Kun Agüero, PSG’s (4) Angel Di Maria, and Napoli star (5) Gonzalo Higuain. La Albiceleste don’t lack their normal drama, having threatened until yesterday to pull out of the competition as part of a larger statement of protest against their national government, which has been seeking complete control over the country’s governing soccer body, the AFA. Drama or no, Argentina have won this competition 14 times, and have not lost since October. They haven’t won a senior team international tournament since 1993, but the time for Leo Messi and company to make a breakthrough may be now.
Waiting in the wings if Argentina falter will be (6) Mexico, who have yet to lose under new manager (7) Juan Carlos Osorio. El Tri are the reigning champions of (8) CONCACAF, having won the 2015 Gold Cup by defeating Jamaica and having bested the United States in an epic extra-time playoff last October. The Mexicans are undefeated in 19 matches, with their last defeat coming, interestingly, at the 2015 edition of the Copa América, held in Chile. Mexico have plenty of star power, in (9) Chicharito, coming off his best year as a pro at Bayer Leverkusen, and (10) Andres Guardado, the midfielder who plays for PSV in Holland that willed El Tri to victory at the Gold Cup last summer. On paper, a defense paced by Porto’s (11) Miguel Layún and longtime US super villain (12) Rafa Márquez, now 37 years old, wouldn’t seem too daunting, but Mexico have not conceded a single goal in eight games under Osorio. This is a great chance for El Tri, twice Copa runners-up, to break through and become the first team outside of South America to claim the Copa.
Contenders
(13) Brazil are here, though how interested they are in the tournament remains to be seen. The general consensus, buttressed by the loose mood surrounding the team’s camp, is that they don’t care a great deal. Yes, Brazil’s fourth place finish at the 2014 World Cup was a source of national shame, with (14) Pele recently admitting that his son saw him weeping in the aftermath of Brazil’s crushing 7-1 defeat on home soil to eventual World Cup champion Germany. Brazil have won the tournament eight times, and wouldn’t mind a trophy of course, but there is little pressure on manager (15) Dunga, who knows a thing or two about glorious victory on American soil, and his side to deliver. The country is instead focused on capturing a gold medal at this summer’s Olympics in Rio. (16) Neymar Jr, still Brazil’s best player, as well as Real Madrid star (17) Marcelo, have both been left off this Selecao side with the Olympics in mind.
It isn’t baseless to suggest Brazil could contend and impress because there aren’t expectations to perform, and their most recent tournament failures- as hosts in Brazil, last summer’s Copa– were defeats that came with crushing domestic pressure. Indeed, the side won the 2013 Confederations Cup in the midst of a wave of national protests—with few watching, Selecao functionally ended Spain’s vice grip on international soccer. The difference here? Brazil aren’t at home and this side has no continuity. With (18) Rafinha and (19) Kaka the latest to leave the team due to injury, Brazil have now lost six players on their Copa roster due to injury withdrawal. Brazil can handle injuries, blessed with riches like PSG’s (20) Lucas Moura and (21) Ganso to call up in their stead, but at some point repetition and continuity matters. They will start the tournament with a team that trained together as a unit for one day.
Alexis and his fashionable shorts will help lead the defending champs.
The top five team in the world that is at the Copa no one is really talking much about is (22) Chile, the defending champion. There are reasonable explanations why La Roja are being overlooked. (23) Jorge Sampaoli, the manager who led the team to glory on home soil last summer, stunned the soccer universe when he resigned in January. (24) Juan Antonio Pizzi took over in his stead and has brought an incredible collection of top-class talent to the United States in Bayern Munich’s (25) Arturo Vidal, Arsenal’s (26) Alexis Sanchez and Barcelona’s (27) Claudio Bravo. The Chileans are the oldest team in the tournament, and sometimes don’t take themselves too seriously, as a pre-tournament friendly defeat to Jamaica demonstrated. But when they click the “on” button, they are as capable as anyone, and could certainly play deep into the month.
(28) Colombia, ranked fourth in the world, drew the most difficult group, and the unenviable position of opening the tournament against the hosts tonight. But (29) José Pékerman, architect of a joyous Los Cafeteros display at the 2014 World Cup, believes his side can win, and unlike some of the South American contingent, has not shied away from saying so. The talent is certainly there, particularly in attack, with target man (30) Carlos Bacca, Puskas Award winner (31) James Rodriguez and (32) Juan Cuadrado, off a brilliant year at Juventus, all in the fold. Sprinkle in young talent like (33) Monterrey’s Edwin Cardona and Colombia should be able to score goals nearly on command. Of course, that was the thinking at the Copa last year as well, and the team scored only once before falling to Argentina in a bloody duel that ended in penalties. Colombia have entered the state of California with high hopes at an international tournament before, only to see the dreams end in despair. Their loss to the host US in the 1994 World Cup, which led to the tragic death of (34) Andres Escobar, will never be forgotten. But it also serves as a motivator and an incentive to infuse that lasting sadness with a tinge of joy, beginning Friday evening.
No country has been champions of South America more than (35) Uruguay. La Celeste, ranked ninth in the world according to the June FIFA rankings, begin the quest for their 16th championship in brilliant form, sitting atop the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying table. Led by (36) Edinson Cavani and (37) Luis Suarez, they’ll look to take a bite out of Mexico Sunday night in Glendale, Arizona- though that’s as close to an all-out road fixture as you’ll play in an international tournament. And while (38) Oscar Tabarez is correct that Uruguay’s travel schedule for the Copa, which sees his side travel from Arizona to Philadelphia and back to California, is brutal, it is part of the Uruguayan cultural identity to give everything in these types of tournaments Suarez will be out with an injury until the quarterfinal, but the fact he’s remained in the team despite the injury says something larger about Uruguay’s level of interest in the competition.
As the late, magnificent Uruguayan storyteller (39) Eduardo Galeano wrote: “Every time the national team plays, … the country holds its breath. Politicians, singers and street vendors shut their mouths, lovers suspend their caresses, and flies stop flying.” Mexico will have its hands full in Glendale.
Bryan Ruiz leads Costa Rica, but the Ticos will miss Keylor Navas.
Sleepers
Two summers ago, (40) Costa Rica became the smallest nation to ever reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup. That they did after winning a “Group of Champions” that included England, Uruguay and Italy was even more astonishing. The federation has been stuck in the mud, to some extent, since. (41) Jorge Luis Pinto, the manager who led The Ticos to the World Cup quarterfinals, left after a heated contract dispute. (42) Paulo Wanchope took over for Pinto, vowing to largely play the same system, only to see his team eliminated from the Gold Cup the next summer in the quarterfinals. He was sacked after getting into a fight at a U23 match, and replaced by (43) Óscar Ramirez. Ramirez’s team were placed in the tournament’s toughest group, alongside Colombia, the United States and Paraguay, but are motivated, determined to show that the World Cup quarterfinal was no fluke.
The Ticos possess one of the most talented starting 11’s in the tournament, with (44) Joel Campbell of Arsenal, (45) Bryan Ruiz of Sporting CP, Espanyol’s (46) Óscar Duarte and (47) Cristian Gamboa of West Brom Albion. Still, this was a team that relied heavily on Real Madrid goalkeeper (48) Keylor Navas to make the big saves for them in critical moments, and the drop-off from a Champions league winning goalkeeper to anyone would be substantial. For Costa Rica, in a difficult group, it could mean the difference between advancing and bowing out after the group stages.
Under (49) Gustavo Quinteros, (50) Ecuador are sitting second in CONMEBOL qualifying and shocked Argentina in Buenos Aires last fall, the win something of a signal that this generation of Ecuadorian footballers may be set to make a splash on the world stage. What better spot than a Copa América?
Ecuador feature a trio of brilliant attacking players who ply their trade in the Barclays Premier League, and in Manchester United’s (51) Antonio Valencia, West Ham United’s (52) Enner Valencia and the incredibly fast and skilled dribbler (53) Jefferson Montero of Swansea City, the team shouldn’t struggle to score.
Ecuador, who play most their home matches at an altitude of 9,000 feet, often struggle at sea level. They won’t get much help on that front in the States, having drawn Brazil in Pasadena (100 feet), (54) Peru in Glendale (1,152 feet) and (55) Haiti in East Rutherford, New Jersey (3 feet). But the talent and form are there to win games in this tournament.
Jurgen Klinsmann has a talented squad. Can he manage it?
Hosts
What to make of the chances for (56) The United States? Hosting a tournament of this magnitude should be a dream for a federation that has talked and acted like an international power player since the 1994 World Cup. And the US has had success on the international stage, reaching the World Cup quarterfinals in 2002, the Confederations Cup Final in 2009 and winning a World Cup group in 2010. While manager (57) Jurgen Klinsmann has not delivered on his promise to develop a proactive, attacking style of soccer, he’s isolated this tournament as an opportunity to demonstrate how far the US have come, both to the world and to a skeptical portion of the homeland where soccer still doesn’t register as a top-tier sport.
Expectations are low, as noted in the introduction. The Yanks are coming off one of the worst 18 month spans in recent memory for the US program, failing to qualify for the Olympics, failing to win the Gold Cup, failing to win a Confederations Cup playoff against rival Mexico, and fighting off potential World Cup elimination in March. The Copa is an opportunity to generate much-needed momentum.
The US have historically worn the underdog label well, exceeding expectations repeatedly. Couple the Americans traditional success as underdogs with the fact that Jurgen Klinsmann has the most talented team of his tenure at his disposal, and the US could surprise. How Klinsmann balances and deploys a team that has players on the tail-end of their international careers, like (58) Jermaine Jones and (59) Clint Dempsey, players in the prime of their careers, like captain (60) Michael Bradley, and a new generation of stars, in Borussia Dortmund teenage sensation (61) Christian Pulisic, Hertha Berlin CB (62) John Brooks and Liberian immigrant and Portland Timbers star (63) Darlington Nagbe, will define the American Copa.
Klinsmann, who also serves as the technical director of US Men’s Soccer, appears to have made strides with the American player pool. Can Klinsmann the manager capitalize? He has set the semifinals as a goal. It is a reasonable one.
Wes Morgan, the captain of the Premier league champion is here. He plays for Jamaica.
Stories in the Rest of the Field
(64) Jamaica are here, led by (65) Winnie Schäfer, who helped the side impress at the Copa América and Gold Cup last summer before seeing his team struggle in World Cup qualifying. With a chance to reach Russia very much in doubt, the Reggae Boyz may only have this Copa to show their wares on the international stage. A 2-1 win at Chile recently also signals how capable Jamaica can be.
By and large, the team is a blend of MLS and lower-division players from England. But there is talent, and one player, (66) Wes Morgan, is the captain of Leicester City, who of course just won the Barclay’s Premier League in one of the most fantastical stories in the history of sport. Here’s a tremendous story on West Morgan by English journalist John Percy. And my favorite story on Leicester, by SI’s Grant Wahl.
(67) Haiti are here, which is remarkable given that the entire infrastructure of the country and its soccer program was destroyed less than a decade ago. Soccer has been an integral part of the nation’s rebuild. The team won’t qualify for the final round of World Cup qualifying, but have shown in the past they can trouble the big boys, outshooting the United States at the Gold Cup last summer and playing a back and forth friendly with Colombia in the build-up. A great story? How about (68) Jozy Altidore, the Haitian-American US star who will miss the Copa due to injury, making a donation to the St. Luke’s Foundation to assure that the Copa is broadcast across Haiti, a gesture that reminds us that for all its flaws, soccer heals and unites more than it divides.
(69) Panama are here, drawn into a difficult group with Argentina and Chile. Nonetheless, Colombian manager (70) Hernán Darío Gómez understands the meaning of a Copa and will have his team prepared. He took over after the wildly popular and successful Dely Valdes brothers fell just short of qualifying for Brazil 2014, and he has improved the team’s ability to keep possession without losing much of its frenetic defensive qualities. Players like (71) Alberto Quintero, (72) Felipe Baloy and (73) Blas Perez will be familiar to the CONCACAF and MLS crowd, but is that enough quality in that group?
South American sides Peru, (74) Venezuela, (75) Bolivia and (76) Paraguay round out the field. Of the four, Los Guaraníes of Paraguay possess the most talent, with stars like (77) Nelson Valdez of the Seattle Sounders and Ingolstadt’s (78) Dario Lezcano, who has replaced longtime striker Roque Santa Cruz as the leader of the Paraguayan counterattack. Still, Paraguay will play the tournament without influential midfielder (79) Néstor, and the side have struggled over the past year, winning only twice in ten games entering the competition and sitting 7th in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying. None of this means (80) Ramón Ángel Díaz’s team will be an easy out—Paraguay are historically stout defensively, and the team’s fighting spirit- or garra- is a part of Paraguayan cultural identity.
Andre Blake has guided the Philadelphia Union to an outstanding start. He’ll have a chance to shine here.
Five “Other” Players to Watch
So you know about Leo Messi and Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani and Angel Di Maria and Clint Dempsey and Chicharito and you’ll probably tune in to see them play anyway, correct? Here are five “other” players, all stars in their own right, you’ll want to keep an eye on at the Copa América Centenario.
1- (81) Andre Blake, the Jamaican goalkeeper, has helped the Philadelphia Union race out to a four point lead in MLS’s Eastern Conference. His brilliant play has underpinned everything else the Union have done, and with Costa Rican star keeper Keylor Navas missing the tournament after winning the Champions League, Blake will have an enormous spotlight for his talents.
2- (82) Paolo Guerrero of Peru has created more chances and taken more shots than anyone in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying. Peru can advance in a group that has a disjointed Brazil, Ecuador and Haiti but only if Guerrero has a masterful tournament. The Incas have finally moved on from the likes of (83) Jefferson Farfan and (84) Claudio Pizarro, so the onus will be on the former Bayern Munich youth product to produce goals. Here’s betting he does.
3- (85) Renato Augusto, Brazil- Is it weird to include a midfielder who plays for the most famous footballing nation on earth when he plays his club soccer in China, a country that is growing the men’s game but is still largely in soccer’s shadowlands? Yes. It is. And yet in a team that features stars like (86) Hulk and (87) Phillipe Coutinho, it is Renato Augusto who is the key to Dunga’s newfound shift away from counterattacking soccer and towards a possession-based type of football. Renato Augusto replaced Luiz Gustavo in World Cup qualification as the deepest man in the midfield, and the team has fascinated since, with a dynamic passer instead of a traditional destroyer anchoring the midfield for the first time in over a generation. Pay attention to Renato Augusto, as this could be his coming out party.
4- (88) Fabian Johnson, United States. Longtime American fans will shrug at this selection, but Johnson is the best field player the US have, despite the hot takes and excitement surrounding Christian Pulisic. The Bundesliga best 11 winger is being deployed as a left back by his manager, however, an odd decision for two reasons. First, there’s the traditional tactical maxim that you play your best wide player in the midfield. Second, Johnson isn’t a particularly good defender. How he handles the role of overlapping fullbacker with vital defensive responsibilities in a group with brilliant wide players will be one of the most pressing American questions at the Copa.
5- Javier Mascherano, Argentina- Messi, Higuan and Aguero won’t win the tournament if the bulldog in the center isn’t at his best. For all their attacking ability, the Argentines field a defense that features two CB’s who aren’t very good in (90) Ramires Funes Mori, coming off a miserable year at Everton, and (91) Nicolas Otamendi. Shielding those two liabilities is the job of El Jefecito, and how well the Barcelona man covers the spaces between could dictate whether Argentina hoist the Copa come the end of June. It’s a big ask, particularly in the summer heat, but Mascherano, who will be 34 come Russia, may sense this is his last best chance to shine internationally for Argentina.
Mexico’s Javier Hernandez should shine after the finest club year of his career.
Five Bold Predictions Sure To Be Wrong
(92) The US will defeat Brazil in the quarterfinals after finishing second in Group A. The US won’t earn the vital prize of a home quarterfinal in Seattle by winning their group, but they’ll earn six points and upset Brazil in New Jersey, setting up a gargantuan semifinal against Mexico in Chicago.
(93) Christian Cueva and (94) Miller Bolaños, who star in Brazil for Grêmio and São Paulo FC respectively, will be two of the tournament’s breakout stars. Bolaños will help Ecuador continue to move forward following the tragic death of Chucho Benitez; Cueva, who transferred from Toluca in Liga MX, is a marvelous dribbler and chance creator who will thrive in the higher tempo system absent Farfan and Pizarro.
(95) Chicharito will win the Golden Boot after a brilliant season in Germany.
(96) Bobby Wood will score multiple goals and the US, who have seen Clint Dempsey score 9 of their last 17 goals in international tournaments, will begin to move past the aging Texan and the injury-prone Jozy Altidore.
(97) The tournament will be a success despite attendance concerns and despite the fact the tournament is, to quote (98) Charlie Stillitano “a made-up cash-grab tournament created by criminals”, will be largely forgotten because the soccer will be brilliant. Yes, ticket prices are high- but they will be for an American World Cup too. It is a sad fact that hard-working people are priced out of Copa América Centenario matches, but the television coverage will be top-notch and the excitement of the tournament will build as the month moves forward.
(99) Surprise Team?
The United States. Hosting a tournament of this magnitude for the first time since 1994, the Yanks will exceed expectations and make a lengthy run.
(100) Winner?
Argentina, behind Angel Di Maria and Lionel Messi, will win the country’s first senior team trophy since 1993.
Neil W. Blackmon is co-founder of The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.