The United States fell 2-0 in Costa Rica, but qualified for the World Cup anyway on Wednesday night.
By Sanjay Sujanthakumar
We’re back. The USMNT officially qualified for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar on Wednesday night with a 2-0 loss in Costa Rica. The result was anticlimactic yet the cloud of Couva is no more, and this World Cup berth will fully sink in once the draw for the tournament is underway tomorrow.
The Ocho is over, and here’s how the standings finished:
For the final time: This is how they stand in World Cup qualification in the Concacaf region. Canada, Mexico & the United States qualify automatically. Costa Rica heads to the playoff. pic.twitter.com/IVfqoY56R7
— Jon Arnold (@ArnoldcommaJon) March 31, 2022
Firstly, it’s worth emphasizing that finishing third and our qualifying performances in general have no bearing on how we’ll do at the World Cup itself. That’s true for every country who reaches Qatar. The World Cup is a different animal, and give Gregg Berhalter credit for guiding an incredibly young squad to that point. The culture he’s created and the dual-nationals he’s recruited cannot be taken for granted. The team’s defensive foundation seems solid and pressing is becoming part of its identity. Sure, in hindsight Berhalter has been nudged by circumstances into a few personnel decisions he should’ve made on his own sooner. And it remains to be seen if we can execute Berhalterball (or if we’ll actually attempt it) and be more than the sum of our very talented parts against the type of opponents who stand, on the biggest stage, between hype and changing the way the world views American soccer. So let’s wait and see.
“Qualifying is not about the vision, so to speak. It’s about getting the job done. You get in some really difficult situations in qualifying,” Berhalter said.
Berhalter will be judged at the end of this year in Qatar. Expectations will be set on Friday and hopefully injuries won’t oblige us to modify them. The USMNT will be represented by the youngest and most diverse squad in its history – as well as the youngest squad in the tournament – at a World Cup unlike any other.
LOOKING AHEAD
– The draw for the next edition of the Concacaf Nations League is on April 4th. There will be two CNL games in the summer window (May 30 – June 14) as well as two friendlies, and then two more friendlies in September 2022. One of those four friendlies is rumored to be against Argentina in the US.
A friendly vs Argentina would be the first time under Berhalter we’ve faced a team that is currently top-10 in the FIFA rankings or Elo. Mexico is not a measuring stick, we need a few tests vs the elites to learn where we really stand and we need to transition out of Concacaf mode, which has basically been Berhalter’s entire tenure.
“We’ll definitely look at playing countries from other continents and get that experience of a different type of soccer. We’ll play some European teams, South American teams, African and, hopefully, Asian teams and really get an understanding of what these different regions are bringing to the World Cup,” Berhalter said.
– MLS moved up its postseason so it ends before the World Cup. Decision Day is October 9th, the following weekend the playoffs begin, and MLS Cup is on November 5th. The World Cup player release date is November 14th, and the tournament kicks off a week later on November 21st.
A long break for any MLSers in the pool (whose teams don’t make the playoffs or are eliminated early) prior to the World Cup wouldn’t be ideal. To maintain the readiness of MLSers for the winter qualifying window during their offseason, Berhalter and his staff spent extended time exclusively with that group in December as well as January. December camp culminated in a friendly vs Bosnia, and three scrimmages were scheduled in January vs USL side Phoenix Rising, Grand Canyon University and Sporting Kansas City.
Surely there’ll be a plan to keep MLSers as sharp and in shape as possible, but the purpose isn’t exactly that of December and January, where two of the games we were preparing for were against El Salvador and Honduras at home. There’s no substitute for match fitness, and the calendar may benefit European-based players… unless they get hurt close to the tournament.
– We’re still waiting to find out how big the final World Cup squad can be, and we already know FIFA are open to enlarging it. For context, due to Covid-19, last summer UEFA permitted up to 26 for the Euros and CONMEBOL allowed up to 28 for the Copa America, while Concacaf kept it at 23 for the Gold Cup. This year CAF allowed 28 for the African Cup of Nations. Considering there will be more teams and more games at the World Cup than any of those tournaments – and more people traveling from more places to what is the smallest country to ever host the World Cup – I’d be surprised if FIFA does not green-light (at least) 26.
ROSTER PROJECTION
Below I’ve listed 26 names, including three players with asterisks who would be dropped if the roster were only 23.
GOALKEEPER (3): Zack Steffen, Matt Turner, Gabriel Slonina
So long as Slonina continues to shine in MLS (and be linked to top European clubs), bringing him is an increasingly sensible move. The Chicago Fire keeper turns 18 in May, he is the future at the position, and he is a priority dual-national who Poland will not get a sniff of.
Superb window for Matt Turner.
— The Yanks Are Coming (@YanksAreComing) March 31, 2022
Steffen’s very shaky last two games may leave the door open to a competition with Matt Turner for the No. 1 job.
Missing out: Ethan Horvath and Sean Johnson
FULLBACK (4): Sergiño Dest, DeAndre Yedlin, Antonee Robinson, Joe Scally
Dest and Jedi are locks. Yedlin would be one of only two players on this roster with World Cup experience and Berhalter has trusted him this cycle. Dropping Yedlin or Reggie Cannon is not an easy decision – both are clearly valued in the locker room – but Scally provides cover at both left and right back. I think Berhalter will appreciate that more after what happened in this window at fullback, although Scally has to stake his claim if/when he gets a second chance in the summer.
Cannon is five years younger than Yedlin, so if Berhalter takes four fullbacks (I doubt 5 is necessary, especially with Kellyn Acosta as that extra break-in-case-of-emergency type) and he’s choosing between the two because we’re taking two left backs (yes please), he may weigh Cannon gaining experience for 2026 more than Yedlin’s 2014 experience. It’s a toss-up.
Missing out: Reggie Cannon, George Bello, Bryan Reynolds, Sam Vines, Shaq Moore
CENTER BACK (5): Walker Zimmerman, Miles Robinson, Chris Richards, John Brooks, James Sands*
Zimmerman, Miles and Richards are locks. Zimmerman’s stock rose more than anyone (along with Antonee) in qualifying. I expect Brooks to be in the next camp, and even if he doesn’t crack the lineup before Qatar, Berhalter has to bring him and Brooks has to accept his role. If all of our center backs are fit, I’d like to see further experimentation with a back 3 because all of these CBs have operated in that at club level.
Berhalter did hint at the possibility. “The 4-3-3 system has been good for us. We might work with some other systems just to have some flexibility in the World Cup. It’s important to see who we’re playing and start planning out how we can be successful there.”
As a CB in the heart of a 3/back up 6, James Sands sneaks in over other CBs because of the flexibility he gives Gregg. But Sands was not as convincing as a CB in a 4 during the Gold Cup and hasn’t been tried as such since, so I’ve got him rooted to 5th on the CB depth chart. If any of the first four CBs aren’t fit (or Brooks doesn’t return), I’m anticipating a battle between Long, Palmer-Brown, and perhaps Cameron Carter-Vickers. CCV is reportedly on Berhalter’s radar, and his successful loan spell at Celtic also has him on the radar of Premier League teams.
Missing out: Aaron Long, Erik Palmer-Brown, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Matt Miazga
MIDFIELDERS (7): Tyler Adams, Kellyn Acosta, Weston McKennie, Yunus Musah, Luca de la Torre, Giovanni Reyna, Paxton Pomykal*
LDLT is sealing his place in the squad and the versatile, gritty Acosta isn’t going anywhere. Reyna’s effectiveness as a winger in this system shouldn’t overshadow how influential he could be as an 8, and we’ll see if Berhalter is ready to try it in the summer.
I’ll keep calling for Pomykal until he gets a look. He’s in the same system under Gregg’s former assistant, and developing chemistry with a few MNT forwards doesn’t hurt, either. If he’s solid for Dallas over the next two months, he needs to be in the summer camp because Busio, Roldan, Lletget, etc. won’t help this team as an 8 at a World Cup. Busio is very talented and he may develop into a fine regista next cycle, but Pomykal is a much more complete option to immediately shore up our midfield depth.
That is also true for Eryk Williamson. Williamson started the Gold Cup final over Busio, but tore his ACL later that month and missed all of qualifying. He’s about to return, and keep an eye on his progress ahead of the summer.
Missing out: Eryk Williamson, Gianluca Busio, Cristian Roldan, Sebastian Lletget, Tanner Tessmann
FORWARD (7): Christian Pulisic, Brenden Aaronson, Tim Weah, Paul Arriola, Jordan Morris*, Ricardo Pepi, Jesús Ferreira
Even with Reyna listed as a midfielder, there’s a glut of wingers. Arriola has proven he’s a soldier that can’t be left behind. At this point, the importance of Pepi being in decent form going into Qatar can’t be overstated. Ferreira will always be intriguing and rated by Berhalter, but there needs to be a more physical presence we can rely on. If other strikers in the pool step up prior to Qatar, that could squeeze out a winger like Morris or Arriola (unless he’s absolutely rotting on the Augsburg bench, I can’t see Pepi being axed). But it’s not an encouraging situation… Josh Sargent is a right winger for relegation-bound Norwich while Daryl Dike will return from injury to a West Brom team with a new manager that’s likely not getting promoted. Matthew Hoppe has played 168 minutes this season for Mallorca. Gyasi Zardes has been benched in Columbus, and his international career has faded since the Gold Cup.
Barring truly irresistible form, I can’t see Berhalter rolling the dice on a striker he hasn’t capped yet (and Jordan Pefok didn’t help with the form argument this window). Ahead of Qatar, we could see false 9 experimentation with Reyna or Pulisic, or perhaps Weah or Jordan Morris given a shot up top.
Missing out: Djordje Mihailovic, Konrad de la Fuente, Josh Sargent, Daryl Dike, Matthew Hoppe, Jordan Pefok.
PROJECTED LINEUP
The 11 that TYAC would start at the World Cup, if it began today and everyone were healthy.
In the pre-match presser on Wednesday, Berhalter briefly let himself look beyond Costa Rica to how his pool could evolve before Qatar. “I think there’s some players that may even make a step up that we don’t even really know about yet, or they’re just on the fringes.”
That doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be more kids (paging DeJuan Jones) but I’ll highlight three U20 candidates, one of whom Berhalter could make room for on a 26-man roster with 2026 in mind: Wolfsburg left winger/wingback Kevin Paredes, Real Sociedad left back Jonathan Gómez, and Seattle Sounders center mid Obed Vargas.
Paredes and Gómez were both in December camp with Berhalter. Paredes reportedly impressed but left the camp with an injury, while Gómez had an immediate impact as a late sub against Bosnia. Both moved to Europe in January and are yet to make first-team debuts, although Gómez is a regular for Real Sociedad B in the Spanish second division.
Vargas is a wonderful story. The 16 year-old from Anchorage, Alaska has started 6 out of 8 games so far for Seattle, appearing in every one and shining in Concacaf Champions League as well as MLS. He’s technically clean and comfortable running with the ball, and despite his age, he’s tenacious and closes space well. He’s got quite a ceiling.
Vargas has been playing up a cycle for the U20s. He and Paredes were both with the squad in Argentina, and all three may be with the U20s in June for the crucial Concacaf Championship that will double as qualification for both the 2023 U20 World Cup and 2024 Olympics.
As of right now, Paredes has the best shot at the senior team before Qatar. With a strong club preseason, he and/or Gomez could force their way into the picture if they’re getting first-team minutes before the September international window. Gómez and Vargas are both eligible to represent Mexico, and while Vargas is a longshot for Qatar, if he continues improving at this rate (he’s surrounded by quality, it’s certainly possible) I wouldn’t be surprised if senior national team interest heats up. I haven’t been this convinced about a prospect since Paxton Pomykal at the start of his breakout 2019 MLS season.
Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a longtime contributor to The Yanks Are Coming. He was most recently the head soccer coach of Trojans FC at the University of Southern California. Follow him on Twitter at @tha_real_kumar.