The United States begins the decisive week of World Cup qualifying at historic Estadio Azteca, where the Americans have never won.
Sanjay Sujanthakumar
It’s time.
The USMNT kicks off the decisive window of World Cup qualifying tonight against Mexico at the iconic Estadio Azteca. When Gregg Berhalter’s remarkably young team began The Ocho with back-to-back draws in September, it was clear that even a potential golden generation wouldn’t coast to Qatar and there was no avoiding this nerve-wracking week in March 2022.
Points will be needed with a home game vs Panama sandwiched between trips to Mexico City and San Jose, Costa Rica, places where the Americans have never won a qualifier. The magic number is 4 (5 mathematically clinches but 4 will definitely do), and the priority is certainly a win Sunday in Orlando to fend off Panama (who should handle Honduras tonight). Costa Rica dropping any points would also be ideal for American hopes and dreams.
As soon as the previous window concluded on an absurdly cold night in Minnesota, the conversation about how to approach the most pivotal week in the history of the program heated up. A loss tonight wouldn’t be fatal, with the altitude (7,200 feet) and pollution of Azteca is especially taxing. For good measure, the Americans haven’t won the second match of any window in this cycle. That has to change on Sunday at Exploria Stadium.
Mexico is vulnerable.
The crowd will be limited to about 40,000, and tonight’s qualifier may soon be, to an extent, extinct. The US, Canada and Mexico will automatically qualify for the next World Cup, the first to feature 48 teams. The qualifying format for the 2030 cycle onwards is unclear, but with Concacaf receiving additional World Cup spots, future qualifiers between these two countries are poised to lose significance. A fourth straight win vs El Tri at its Mecca in this moment would ease the pressure ahead of Panama and send a resounding message.
“Our record here is horrendous. The odds are against us getting something out of this game. We know that, we realize that. That’s just how it is. We’re focused on going in and being difficult to play against, competing, but we certainly do have confidence from how we grew as a team in those three games,” Gregg Berhalter told the media of that message this week.
The US have, if you are looking for positives, earned a result at historic Azteca in both of the last two World Cup cycles. The hard-fought draw earned here in 2017, buoyed by a lengthy training camp at altitude that was the brainchild of Bruce Arena and rubber stamped by a moment of exquisite magic from US captain Michael Bradley, proves that even in the most difficult circumstances, the US can earn points in Mexico City.
This goal.
— The Yanks Are Coming (@YanksAreComing) March 23, 2022
Still can smell the beer that came flying into the press area and landed in my lap. pic.twitter.com/QZoJSkzitM
Despite the absences of Weston McKennie, Sergiño Dest, Brenden Aaronson, Chris Richards, and Matt Turner due to injury, this group is still confident and fearless. But is it walking into a trap?
John Brooks remains exiled.
I’m not that surprised that Berhalter chose to exclude him again, but his latest reasoning is bizarre. Berhalter was asked multiple questions about the Wolfsburg defender and elaborated: “I hate to get detailed about this regarding an individual player, but when you look at the window in October, he had an injury. November, we weren’t happy with his form. In January, we weren’t happy with his club form. Now he’s back playing and now it becomes about what our game plan is for this window. And there’s some details in his game that I talked to him that we need to improve to fit him into our game model. And we don’t have time on Tuesday to improve these things. The game’s on Thursday, the game’s on Sunday. There’s not a runway here. So I think when this whole thing settles down, and hopefully we’re in the World Cup, and we have the June window, the September window, I think there’ll be another opportunity for him where we can really start addressing where we think his deficiencies are to be the starting center back in our pool. But like a lot of players, or like all players, we’re never gonna rule a guy out. That’s not how we work.”
That Berhalter said “starting center back” instead of “in the squad” lends credence to the notion that he’d rather not call up Brooks if he’s not a starter. However, Miles Robinson’s form is a concern right now, and Aaron Long and Erik Palmer-Brown have never appeared in a World Cup qualifier. EPB hasn’t been capped under Berhalter, and his only Berhalter camp was a year ago, which was also Long’s last cap prior to his Achilles rupture.
If Brooks didn’t miss the final four matches of the previous qualifying campaign, the US almost certainly would have reached Russia. This time Brooks is not hurt, he’s just mystifyingly not trusted. If there was an incident we’re not aware of keeping him out of the squad, I really don’t think that’s the obstacle anymore, and that’s why this is all so exasperating. For now, I believe Brooks will be back in June, assuming we’ve dodged the playoff.
THE LINEUPS
The fundamental decision facing Berhalter in terms of the lineups in the first two matches: does the necessity of three points Sunday vs Panama carry enough weight to warrant sparing most of the American regulars from the exhausting Azteca experience? This would also include Tyler Adams, who is on a yellow card and would be suspended if he gets another one Thursday night.
The internet has been ablaze with this debate, and Berhalter suggested he won’t be too cautious with some of his troops.
“The important thing is first, to look at the starting point of where these guys are coming from.” Berhalter said. “So if a guy is fully fit and playing every week and has 90 minutes under his belt for a considerable amount of weeks, he’ll be fine. They’ll be fatigued a little bit at altitude, but they’ll be able to get through it. I’ve had personal experience there. Getting feedback from other countries that have played there already, getting feedback from MLS teams that have played there already, it’s something you can get through. And so our job is to put 11 players on the field that can win the game. That’s what we’re here for. We’re here to win soccer games and we’re gonna put guys on the field against Mexico, against Panama and against Costa Rica that we feel can win the game.”
The irony is Berhalter’s reflex to overthink and get cute with lineups actually seems like the right plan here, in the sense that there is obvious danger in opting for a nearly full strength lineup Thursday night. “For us, it’s not trying to get cute. It’s trying to put teams on the field in each game that we think can win the game,” Berhalter said.
Berhalter did acknowledge that before camp, he “heard that argument” about deploying a B team vs Mexico and debated it with his staff. “We looked at all sides of it. We said, ‘Hey, does this have merit?’ It was an important exercise to do for us. And we came out with our answer, and you’ll see tomorrow. There’s no harm in looking at both sides of this thing.”
Here’s my prediction for the lineups Thursday and Sunday, followed by my overall thoughts on how the puzzles will be pieced together and why.
– In goal, Zack Steffen should get the nod after starting Man City’s FA Cup Saturday vs Southampton. Steffen’s first minutes since his latest injury struggles were a relief, as is Ethan Horvath seizing the starting job at Nottingham Forest.
– An inconclusive Covid test kept Reggie Cannon out of practice Wednesday. DeAndre Yedlin was probably starting regardless given his Azteca experience. Yedlin is on a yellow card, as is Steffen, Tim Weah, and last but not least, Tyler Adams.
– There’s an argument to start Adams Thursday because if he does pick up a yellow then he’d still be back for the final game in Costa Rica, whereas if he’s saved for Sunday and gets the yellow vs Panama, it’s a one-and-done window for the New York native. Considering his outsized importance I’d prefer we don’t risk Adams Thursday, but I expect Berhalter to hedge, if not gamble with lineups hoping to offset it with judicious subbing. Antonee Robinson and Walker Zimmerman are set to start both matches in the back, and so will the in-form Pulisic on the left wing. Adams’s club minutes have dried up recently, so if he and Musah end up starting both that’s rather audacious.
Another question heading into Mexico City is whether or not we’ll see a back 3.
The Yanks battered El Tri out of the base 4-3-3 in November, but without McKennie, given Adams is on a yellow, and in order to avoid starting Busio – who I’m not convinced is ready for substantial minutes in a must-win – there’s logic to playing the 343 and sacrificing a center mid vs Mexico when you look at the (shortage of) reliable 8s on this roster and desire rotation in Orlando.
No one was anticipating both James Sands and EPB getting called up, and both are suited to a back 3. But regardless of his form for Troyes, it would be extremely surprising to see EPB in a must-win game. I’m a big fan of Sands and I wish he’d have been more involved in qualifying. He did have about 100 minutes in a back 3 with Miles Robinson and Walker Zimmerman in the Gold Cup group stage before an injury ended Zimmerman’s tournament. However, there is a chance Miles is benched for Aaron Long.
A prospective US starting 11 against Panama.
Gio Reyna going 90 over the weekend was quite reassuring, and if he’s viewed as an option in the middle too, there’s sufficient ammo to comfortably stick to 4-3-3s this whole window.
“I’d feel perfectly comfortable playing there. No. 10 is probably my best position where I grew up playing,” Reyna told the media this week. “I’m pretty versatile, I don’t think it’ll change the way I play. I’ve played there for Dortmund recently, I’ve played on the wing for Dortmund, but my favorite position is probably through the middle,” Reyna said.
“I wouldn’t rule out Gio being able to play there. The issue is just his rhythm, his fitness, and his game time in these last five months. Eventually I think it’s a position he can play, and we’ll have to see if it happens in this window,” Berhalter said.
Reyna has never featured as a center mid for the US but if he and Weah don’t start vs Mexico, getting both on the pitch with Pulisic vs Panama makes it worth a shot. Without McKennie and potentially Adams if he’s suspended, any permutation of a midfield three for Panama would be lacking continuity anyway.
Adams plus Acosta and Musah as the 8s would be the most steely trio to grind out at least 60 minutes at Azteca, and Acosta was integral to the Americans earning a result in their last trip, joining Arriola and Pulisic as holdovers that started that match. That said, starting both Adams and Acosta (in either a 4-3-3 or a 3-4-3) is rather risky due to the fact that Acosta – who played late Sunday night – would have less gas to fill in at the 6 vs Panama if Adams gets suspended. All indications are that Adams will start. If Acosta does not, that likely opens the door for Luca de la Torre. Acosta is a sturdier defensive presence but LDLT’s work rate is more than adequate, and what he offers driving the game and connecting in possession could be a serious headache for El Tri.
Paul Arriola is one of 4 US regulars who started in the last US qualifying trip to Azteca. He’s also played there during his time in Liga MX
McKennie’s influence on and off the pitch is unmatched, and Berhalter admitted he can’t be replaced. McKennie’s ball-winning in particular will be missed, but a balanced, three-man midfield can still be constructed.
On the right wing, Paul Arriola seems like a safe bet to start opposite Pulisic. Like Acosta, Arriola has Azteca experience – in addition to starting with Pulisic, Yedlin and Acosta there in 2017, Arriola visited Azteca during his time with Tijuana – and he is tailor-made for the running and attrition of the opening 60 minutes. Jordan Morris and Tim Weah are options off the bench. Weah has been electric in The Ocho but he’s on a yellow card and Berhalter noted he’s among the players whose minutes ought to be managed.
“Timmy’s been getting a little bit more game time lately, but certainly not the 90 minutes we expect out of him. And that is a little bit of a concern, we’re gonna have to use him in spots in this window. I don’t think it’s realistic to think that Timmy can play three 90 minute games, but he’s certainly gonna be valuable for us in this window.”
Up top, Berhalter sounded very open to the idea of starting Pefok against Panama. “The type of form that Jordan’s in, the type of game we see happening – specifically in Orlando – we think we’re going to need a box presence, we think we’re going to need someone there that can finish off crosses. And he’s been doing great, he’s been doing a really good job, a very physical presence in Switzerland scoring a ton of goals.” I endorse this. We cross the ball a lot – too much to my liking – and Pefok is the biggest, most proven target on this roster. However, Ferreira did time his movement well to finish two crosses en route to a hattrick Saturday night, and that surely has the Berhalter favorite set to start Thursday night.
“I think he’s been doing a great job. And what Jesus is gonna have to come to terms with is that he may not always score a hattrick but he can still be a very effective player on the team given his skillset… he’s such a good soccer player, such a smart soccer player that he makes it easy for those around him, and that’s what you’re seeing at Dallas. Not only did he score a hattrick on the weekend, he also had an assist. He’s an excellent player, I thought highly of him from the first day we worked with him, and we were ecstatic when he changed over to our country from Colombia. We think he can be a big part of this program,” Berhalter said.
Berhalter preached patience with Ricardo Pepi, stressing the FC Dallas export – who hasn’t scored since October and was an unused sub in Augsburg’s last two games – is still adjusting to the Bundesliga while dealing with significant expectations. Despite the goal drought, it sounds like Pepi could still be sprinkled in as a sub. “If he gets in good positions, we’re comfortable he’s gonna score. He’s asked to play slightly different for Augsburg when he’s on the field. They’re creating chances by him running behind the back line, not so much from service. We hopefully will get some more service into the penalty box and that’ll help him out a little bit when he plays.”
Sanjay Sujanthakumar is a longtime contributor to The Yanks Are Coming. He was most recently the head soccer coach of Trojans FC at the University of Southern California. Follow him on Twitter at @tha_real_kumar.