Neil W. Blackmon
This week marks the beginning of May, which means the US Women’s National Team is just a month away from defending its 2015 World Cup championship. All that remains between the Americans and their June 11 World Cup opener against Thailand at the Stade Auguste-Delaune in Reims are three “Send-Off Series” games, the first of which will be played May 12 against South Africa in Santa Clara, California.
Given that window, an announcement of the 23-person roster seems imminent. That appears to be in the offing sooner rather than later, per longtime USWNT scribe Caitlin Murray, who reported earlier this week on Twitter that Jill Ellis has already informed the women who will make up the World Cup team of their inclusion.
With that in mind, here’s TYAC’s best guess at who will make the cut to help the US with its title defense in France.
Goalkeepers (3): Alyssa Naeher (Chicago Red Stars), Ashlyn Harris (Orlando Pride), Adrianna Franch (Portland Thorns)
For over a year, we’ve been writing about the concerns the US have at goalkeeper. Naeher is the presumed starter but she’s done little to separate herself from the group, raising concerns that the US lack a difference maker at the position for the first time in two decades.
The SheBelieves Cup, which was the last chance the US had at playing competitive matches against elite teams before France, did little to alleviate those concerns.
An injury to Naeher in the opener of that competition gave Jill Ellis the chance to play a different goalkeeper in every match at the tournament, but none of the options stood out above the rest.
At the club level, Naeher is the most consistent and Harris, who might be the best shotstopper, the most erratic. Franch may have the highest ceiling, but the forever-tinkering Ellis waited until early this year to give her a vital cap, meaning she’s simply lacks the experience necessary to play in this big a moment.
The USWNT, save the Solo-Scurry fiasco at the 2007 World Cup, have rarely had to worry about having a difference maker in net. For the first time ever, they do need to worry.
Centerbacks (3): Becky Sauerbrunn (Utah Royals), Abby Dahlkemper (North Carolina Courage), Tierna Davidson (Chicago Red Stars)
Sauerbrunn used the now defunct WPS to burst back onto the national team scene in 2010 and by 2015, she was the best defender in the world, an integral piece to a World Cup Champion.
“She’s perhaps the most instinctive, smartest player I’ve ever coached,” Jill Ellis told TYAC earlier this World Cup cycle. “She’s not the fastest, not the strongest, but she’s two-steps of ahead of the game in her mind and such a stabilizing force for the young players.”
This World Cup, along with the 2020 Olympic games in Tokyo, a city Sauerbrunn is fond of, will likely be her last hurrah. She wasn’t perfect in Rio; she’ll need to be for a US defense that has looked leaky in 2019 to defend its title.
Joining Becky is Abby Dahlkemper, who is still young and tends to play her best soccer with a stable number six ahead of her. Dahlkemper is an excellent passer from the back, something Jill Ellis values immensely, and she will likely start. Tierna Davidson, the youngest member of the team, adds depth. She had some tough individual moments at the SheBelieves Cup, but like Dahlkemper, sometimes those issues were less about technical or positional mistakes and more a result of covering for a disjointed midfield where Julie Ertz was given a walkabout role, leaving immense gaps between the US midfield and back four.
These tactical issues are questions that linger for the Yanks, but the personnel that will be tasked with addressing them remains fairly predictable.
Fullbacks (5): Crystal Dunn (North Carolina Courage), Kelley O’Hara (Utah Royals), Ali Krieger (Orlando Pride), Emily Sonnett (Portland Thorns), Casey Short (Chicago Red Stars)
Dunn, O’Hara and Sonnett are indispensable, with the first two the incumbent starters and Sonnett too versatile to leave at home. Sonnett is also a threat to score off set pieces, which is something the US may need to do given the questions about quality that remain in the central midfield.
In a world where O’Hara hadn’t been battling ankle issues for most the autumn and winter, Casey Short may be left home with an additional forward or midfielder added. But the US simply can’t bring enough fullbacks given the way Jill Ellis tasks them with providing width to incutting playmaking wings Tobin Heath and Megan Rapinoe.
Ali Krieger’s inclusion in the starting lineup in the last US match against Belgium speaks to her performance in the previous camp; she’s also a trusted international that Ellis knows won’t be overwhelmed by any moment if called upon in France.
Midfielders (6): Julie Ertz (Chicago Red Stars), Lindsey Horan (Portland Thorns), Rose Lavelle (Washington Spirit), Samantha Mewis (North Carolina Courage), McCall Zerboni (North Carolina Courage), Morgan Brian (Chicago Red Stars)
Let’s start with the last name because you probably did a double take reading it. Yes, Morgan Brian has been out of the US Women’s National Team for the better part of a year. But here’s the thing: when healthy, there’s no question Morgan Brian impacts winning. She’s also one of the largest reasons the United States won the World Cup in 2015, which means no one in the locker room will bat an eye if she’s added to the team.
Brian played an hour of terrific soccer last week before coming off, and she’s getting healthier and stronger. She’s not- and really hasn’t ever been- a terrific international player in the final third- but she does have good positional sense, a deft touch as a passer and the ability to get in passing lanes and either disrupt flow or win the ball. Her inclusion would be surprising, but shouldn’t be considered stunning, especially for a team that has searched for a cohesive midfield group throughout 2019. A healthy Brian offers more than other options like Danielle Colaprico and Allie Long, and should be evaluated as such.
As for the rest of the group, Lindsey Horan is one of the biggest keys to a US repeat. The Americans have to find a way to make long balls to Alex Morgan or diagonals to Tobin Heath a less predictable route of attack; a healthy Horan can score goals and give the US center the possession-retainer they lacked at times in the SheBelieves Cup.
Julie Ertz’s best role is as traditional number six, but Ellis’s three-woman midfield hasn’t functioned with enough of a cohesive shape for Ertz to understand this. We’ll write more about this later, but Ertz starting as the last line of defense ahead of the back four makes sense.
The money is on Rose Lavelle to lock down the other starting role. Ellis values her precision passing and playmaking ability despite her deficiencies on defense.
Her main competition for the other starting spot should be from Samantha Mewis, who gives the midfield the bite and defensive presence they sometimes lacked at the SheBelieves Cup. For our money, she’s a better-starting option than Rose Lavelle on a team that of late has struggled more to prevent goals than score them, but our money isn’t managing the US Women’s National Team.
McCall Zerboni edges out Allie Long for that last spot. Even if she’s unlikely to play much, she’s a hard-nosed defender and smart positional player who would be an asset when the US inevitably have to close out a game in the knockout rounds.
Wingers (3): Megan Rapinoe (Reign FC), Tobin Heath (Portland Thorns), Mallory Pugh (Washington Spirit)
Rapinoe remains the dynamic, wizard-with-the-ball playmaker we’ve admired for a decade. She’ll start on the left. While Rapinoe is always in incredible shape, she’s also tasked with a great deal of the team’s creativity on the left flank; Ellis will want to manage her minutes during the tournament as Rapinoe isn’t as young as she used to be.
Mallory Pugh’s role remains in the air. Her blend of athleticism and technical talent is nearly unrivaled in the player pool, which might be why Jill Ellis has tried her in so many different spots over the last eighteen months, hoping to find one that fit. In the end, the smartest thing might be to tuck her in behind Alex Morgan as a supporting forward, or allow her to be the second option off the bench, behind designated supersub Christen Press.
Tobin Heath is the most creative, exciting player in the history of the US Women’s National team. She’s a human joystick and she’s in her prime. If the US win the World Cup for the fourth time, she’ll almost certainly be the largest reason why.
Forwards (3): Alex Morgan (Orlando Pride), Christen Press (Utah Royals), Carli Lloyd (Sky Blue FC)
Press has carved out a role as the first player off the bench, where her speed is optimized against tired legs and she’s been devastating on the incut from the wing.
As plays like the one above demonstrate, Press is such a profoundly competent player in every respect: as a dribbler, passer, and target forward- that Ellis can get away with only bringing two forwards to France.
Carli Lloyd is well…Carli Lloyd. She’s not going to offer much in possession these days and she won’t be consistently influence a game for 90 minutes, but she still has an incredible nose for goal and if you need an off-the-bench poacher, you may as well use a former FIFA World Women’s Player of the Year winner.
Alex Morgan has gone from the “Baby Horse” who was simply told “Go play” by Pia Sundhage in the 2011 World Cup to a 100-goal scorer forward playing the final World Cup of her prime. She’s a much better hold-up player than she used to be, and those that shrug off her stardom as being mostly the product of overwhelming athleticism do little justice to how good she is technically.
When the US midfield struggle, Morgan often appears to be on an island too often. But she’s spent four years working towards this World Cup, having challenged herself in Europe, carried the water for an expansion team and stepped seamlessly into the leadership void left by Abby Wambach. This is her time and moment. The guess here is her summer is unforgettable.
Neil W. Blackmon is the co-founder and Executive Editor of The Yanks Are Coming. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.