The US Women’s National Team celebrate their Tournament of Nations victory after routing Brazil 4-1 to claim the title.
John Halloran
Less than a year away from the 2019 World Cup, the United States women’s national team is flying high.
They haven’t lost in over a year—including nine matches against opponents ranked in the top 10—and won both the SheBelieves Cup and the Tournament of Nations in the last six months.
Of course, the team still needs to qualify for the World Cup in this October’s CONCACAF Championship, but barring a total disaster, things couldn’t be going much better for the Americans. Since Jill Ellis switched the team to a 4-3-3 last year, the offensive has exploded and utterly dominated all-comers, outscoring their opposition 58-17, including 19-7 against the world’s top teams in England, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, Japan (twice), and Brazil (twice).
The Tactics
Since the 2016 Olympics, head coach Jill Ellis has looked at a number of different ways to get more players into the attack.
Following the team’s inability to effectively unlock Sweden’s low-block in Brasilia, Ellis looked at a three-back for the first six months of the 2019 cycle, convinced the new look would solve the team’s offensive struggles. However, the move—particularly with the personnel the coach used to implement it—did not work and the team was played off the field in the 2017 SheBelieves Cup.
Through April of last year and into July, Ellis moved the team into an “empty-bucket” 4-4-2. That proved enough to get the squad through a pair of April and June friendlies, but a loss to Australia in the opening match of the 2017 Tournament of Nations in July rattled the team again. Following that defeat, Ellis switched the team into a 4-3-3, which turned out to be an epiphany as it perfectly matched the talent at the coach’s disposal.
Adding in a dedicated No. 6 in Julie Ertz, the outside backs were able to go forward with abandon—as Ellis had been wanting for years—without totally destabilizing the backline. Ertz’s addition to the midfield also allowed the No. 8’s to play a more free-flowing, attacking style, and perfectly matched the strengths of the team’s wingers as well. Mallory Pugh and Megan Rapinoe, freed from the responsibility of tracking back as outside midfielders and now fully unleashed to attack at will as pure wingers, dominated in the wide spaces and brought the American attack to life.
Over the past year, the team has slowly adapted within its new set-up, seeing various players move seamlessly in and out of the lineup. During the recent Tournament of Nations, the team saw an excellent midfield performance from Lindsey Horan, whom Ellis partnered with a slew of virtuosos in Morgan Brian, Sam Mewis, and Rose Lavelle. On the wing, in the absence of Pugh, fans were treated to impressive performances from Christen Press and Tobin Heath.
In recent months, the team has also begun to play asymmetrically, using center back Emily Sonnett at “right back” to allow the team to slip into a three-player defense when left back Crystal Dunn bombs forward. That combination, with Rapinoe on the left wing slipping inside to devastating effect, has proved particularly troublesome for opposing defenses. On the right side, Horan now often drifts into wider spaces in the midfield with the right winger—higher up the field—maintaining another level of width, creating an off-balance, yet effective lineup.
How the USWNT lined up at the Tournament of Nations.
The Roster
Following the 2016 Olympics, Ellis embarked on a wide-ranging search for new talent and brought in 57 different players to U.S. camps over the past two years. Her rosters have become more predictable over the past several months as the coach has begun to significantly refine and narrow her player pool. Over the next 10 months will come the really tough part, picking 23 names to represent the Americans in the next World Cup.
At goalkeeper, Alyssa Naeher has clearly emerged as Ellis’ first-choice between the posts. There are plenty of fans and pundits who don’t agree and it’s a specious argument, at best, to say that Naeher has clearly won the job. Nonetheless, Naeher played every minute of the 2018 Tournament of Nations and the coach has done everything she can to instill confidence in her netminder, continuing to give her the overwhelming majority of starts and minutes, despite a handful of high-profile mistakes.
At this point, Ashlyn Harris seems like the clear back-up, but trying to predict who the third goalkeeper will be in France is a fool’s errand. The federation is subsidizing Jane Campbell, but she’s missed the last two camps. Adrianna Franch has earned high praise through her league play over the past few years, but has never earned a cap for the Americans. The same is true for Abby Smith. Casey Murphy won Division I Feminine Goalkeeper of the Year honors abroad last season and earned a June call-up, but missed the roster last month for the Tournament of Nations.
Franch is currently the front-runner for the third spot in goal, but based on the past year, it appears that could change at any moment.
As far as the defense is concerned, Ellis seems to have three capable center backs in veteran Becky Sauerbrunn and relative newcomers Abby Dahlkemper and Tierna Davidson. For most of her career, Sauerbrunn has gained recognition for playing mistake-free soccer. And while a few cracks in the armor have appeared over the past two years (she’s no longer the best defender in the world), few would argue that she’s not the top option in the back at the moment.
For now, it appears that Ellis will partner Davidson with Sauerbrunn in the center of the U.S.’ defense with the 19-year-old earning starts in 10 of the team’s 11 matches this year. However, the youngster has made a number of mistakes in recent matches. Ellis has written those off, for the most part, as related to Davidson’s lack of competitive matches outside U.S. camps for a collegian about to begin her junior year at Stanford. But it is a concern, and how Ellis manages that lack of games for Davidson next spring ahead of the World Cup will be worth monitoring closely in the next few months.
As of now, it doesn’t appear that Ellis will elect to bring along a fourth dedicated center back to France, instead relying on several other players who will likely be heading to the World Cup and can play the position in a pinch, including Ertz, Emily Sonnett, and Casey Short.
At outside back, Kelley O’Hara is still a first-choice selection, despite a long-injury layoff. Crystal Dunn has also now started eight straight games at the position and isn’t likely to move back up the field anytime soon. Sonnett has platooned at right back with the injury to O’Hara, and Short also looks extremely likely to make the final roster.
Of the remaining candidates, Merritt Mathias has earned call-ups into the last two camps, but only played in one short cameo. Sofia Huerta switched international affiliations and Ellis called her into camps for a solid year, but left her out for the Tournament of Nations. That snub seemed especially cruel after Huerta recently sought a club-level trade to get more time at right back to improve her national team prospects. Huerta is far from out of the picture, though, and it will be interesting to see if she returns for qualifying.
Jaelene Hinkle’s name is still in the picture with her recent call-up to the provisional roster for the Tournament of Nations. However, Ellis cut her from the squad after only two days and there is still broad speculation that the call-in was a pretextual attempt to avoid a discrimination lawsuit after Hinkle missed a year’s worth of rosters following her decision last year to not represent the U.S. last June because she didn’t want to wear the team’s Pride jersey. Whatever the truth about the call-up, any decision to include Hinkle comes with reasonable chemistry concerns Ellis may not want to manage ahead of France.
Midge Purce also remains in the picture, if only barely. Purce came into camp for the U.S. during last year’s Tournament of Nations camp, but then didn’t earn another call-up until June. An injury may have prevented her from earning a July call-up this year after a nasty tackle in league play took her out of action for several weeks. Purce, since moving to the back after a youth career as a forward, has all the tools to be an international-quality defender and may make a late run at a World Cup spot.
In midfield, the decisions seem pretty straightforward.
Ertz and Horan are givens. Mewis and Brian—who have both been dealing with injuries that have limited their minutes recently—are as good as anyone on the U.S. roster when fit and in-form.
Close observers of the U.S. team know the quality of Rose Lavelle, even though it has been in short supply over the past year with her own injury struggles. Against Brazil, Lavelle was a revelation in the midfield and, while limited to a single-half as the training staff managed her minutes, dominated proceedings through the first stanza. Her versatility also gives her an advantage, as she can play on the wing if needed.
The most interesting player in the midfield debate is McCall Zerboni. A professional journeywoman, Zerboni has helped lead various clubs to five championship games through her eight seasons in the pros and is a proven winner. Over the past year and a half, she has emerged as a legitimate national team prospect—at the age of 31—through her dominating play for the North Carolina Courage. For the U.S., she is the best like-for-like replacement at the No. 6 position, and while Ertz can obviously go 90 minutes game-in and game-out, Zerboni is the best choice for Ellis in France as a back-up defensive midfielder.
That leaves long-time national team player Allie Long, and newcomer Andi Sullivan, on the outside looking in. Long famously made a late run at the team in 2016 to secure a place on the Olympic roster, but suffered in 2017 when Ellis played her out of position. Now, a year later, Long has become a peripheral talent and, if the others stay healthy, won’t be needed in France.
Sullivan, for her part, made a strong debut with the senior team in 2016, before suffering an ACL injury. She has fully recovered and earned more call-ups and caps this spring, but has now missed the last two U.S. camps.
Alex Morgan has been sensational for club and country over the last several months.
Up front, Alex Morgan, Heath, Rapinoe, Pugh, Press are all easy locks to make the roster. Morgan has proved over the past year that she is the best forward in the U.S., if not the world. Heath, Rapinoe, and Pugh all have notched mind-blowing performances on the wing in the past year and Press—even if playing slightly out of position out wide—simply has too much quality to leave at home.
Lynn Williams has the physical profile to back-up Morgan at the No. 9 position in France, but still lacks the technical quality and finishing to be a truly effective force for the Americans and has missed the last two U.S. rosters. Savannah McCaskill is a skilled, but ultimately unnecessary player for the U.S. up top at this point and Ellis has never seemed to rate Kealia Ohai—despite Ohai’s recent call-in for the provisional Tournament of Nations’ roster.
The last two spots on the front line, and the roster itself, seem most likely at this point to go to Carli Lloyd and Amy Rodriguez. Some might be surprised by Lloyd’s inclusion among the forwards, but that’s where Ellis has used her—as a sub for Morgan—in recent camps. Lloyd won’t be a starter in France, but can provide the U.S. a target forward should Morgan go down with an injury, or need a rest at some point along the way. Rodriguez is largely in the same boat, a seasoned veteran that will probably earn the last spot on the U.S. roster as a possible emergency replacement at the No. 9 position.
TYAC predicted World Cup roster:
Goalkeepers: Alyssa Naeher, Ashlyn Harris, Adrianna Franch
Defenders: Becky Sauerbrunn, Abby Dahlkemper, Tierna Davidson, Kelley O’Hara, Crystal Dunn, Casey Short, Emily Sonnett
Midfielders: Julie Ertz, Lindsey Horan, Sam Mewis, Morgan Brian, McCall Zerboni, Rose Lavelle
Forwards: Alex Morgan, Megan Rapinoe, Tobin Heath, Mallory Pugh, Christen Press, Carli Lloyd, Amy Rodriguez
Going Forward
With the formation and tactics set, the offense humming, and the lineup choices becoming clearer each camp, the last remaining thing for Ellis and the team to do over the next 10 months is lock things down on the defensive side of the ball.
Despite everything that’s going well right now for the U.S., there are still troubling signs with the backline. In two of the three matches at the Tournament of Nations, the U.S. conceded first and the team didn’t manage to pick up a clean sheet in a single match of the tournament.
The team also seems to have a bad habit of downshifting when they get a lead, instead of driving home the dagger when they have the chance. On every occasion this year, the offense has been able to pull the team out of such lapses, but there will be a game or two during next summer’s World Cup when they need the defense to carry them. Every tournament, there is at least one contest where the offensive is misfiring—missing chances, or not creating them—or an opponent’s defense is dialed in, blocking shots, making last-ditch tackles, and playing with an outstanding keeper saving everything that does manage to get through.
Against Japan, Australia, and Brazil, the U.S. gave up goals on the counter—and more than a few fans had post-traumatic flashbacks of the Olympic match against Sweden in 2016 in which the Americans utterly dominated play and still lost.
Some of this may resolve itself naturally, with Dahlkemper and Davidson accruing more experience, and O’Hara returning to the fold. But Becky Sauerbrunn will turn 34 before the tournament in France kicks off and certainly not be any faster than she is now. Davidson is making more mistakes than she did when she first came into the team over the winter and Naeher still has to prove that she can come up with a big stop when needed at the international level.
Most forget that in 2015, it was the U.S. defense that carried it through most of the tournament with many of its key offensive players in slumps during the tournament. To defend their title in France, the Americans and Ellis will need to find the right combination of players and tactics in the back over the next 10 months.
John Halloran has been a longtime contributor to The Yanks Are Coming. A decorated and championship winning women’s soccer coach, Halloran’s writing has appeared at American Soccer Now, The Equalizer, Bleacher Report, Four Four Two and a host of other publications. In our view, he’s one of the most important voices in American soccer today. Follow him on Twitter @JohnDHalloran.