Is it his time?
Group D: Argentina, Nigeria, Croatia, Iceland
A difficult group to project, with talent everywhere, and the world’s greatest player.
This isn’t the best supporting cast Lionel Messi has had with Argentina, primarily because the legendary bulldog of a holder Javier Mascherano is no longer in his prime.
Messi has also grown frustrated with the incredible external pressure of playing for Argentina and the lack of on-field support, famously retiring briefly following La Albiceleste’s loss in the 2016 Copa America Final.
The difference this time, I think, is Jorge Sampaoli, a confident and innovative manager who has tried a variety of tactics and player combinations to make Messi most comfortable.
At present, the best idea has been to ignore the dynamic Juventus star Paulo Dybala in favor of Manuel Lanzini, who is a tactically intelligent player well-suited to filling in the spaces left behind by Messi when he roams about from his central number ten starting point.
Kun Aguero has almost never played as well for country as club, but he’s the more talented option up front, with Higuain perhaps relegated to substitute duty. Angel Di Maria, as ever a man without a true position, will occupy some netherland in the left channel, waiting for Messi’s beckon call to combine.
This is a bad team defensively, perhaps even worse than usual, given the struggles in goal even before top choice keeper Sergio Romero was ruled out with a knee injury. Presumably, Chelsea backup Willy Caballero will start, but he struggles to play well, or at all, in Cup games, and at 36, it’s shocking he’s a Chelsea player at all.
Ahead of him the center back pairing of Federico Fazio and Nicolas Otamendi are too often dragged out of position, especially against elite pace. The draw softened some of that bad news, as neither Iceland or Croatia field a team of speed merchants, but the Argentines do close with the blistering pace and counter of Nigeria, though history says Argentina (5-0 vs the Super Eagles in international competition) will survive.
Nigeria swag is elite. The nation plays brilliant football as well.
I do like Nigeria to finish second in this group, however, and not just because they have the Wakanda-inspired clothing line.
Nigeria are built to counterattack, but with special quality in the central midfield as well, meaning they don’t have to cede the lion’s share of possession if they don’t want to. Jon Obi Mikel is a delight in his preferred central attacking midfield role ahead of two steady holders, Wilfried Ndidi, a jitterbug of a ball-winner with a huge soccer brain, and Ogenyi Onazi, a ball-winner who plays professionally in the Turkish league.
If they don’t keep possession, the ball-winning midfielders behind Mikel are adept at shuttling the ball to Mikel and a trio of Premier League attackers, Alex Iwobi, Victor Moses and Kelechi Iheanacho, who as a collective are fast, physical, tidy on the ball and clever.
This is also the steadiest back four Nigeria have fielded in at least two World Cups, with four starters based in top European leagues. Avoid a large defeat against Argentina, and the Super Eagles could certainly advance.
Like Peru, Iceland will be a global favorite, having captured hearts with the Viking-clap and SKOL!! Chant during their improbable run to the EURO quarterfinals two summers ago.
Whatever the buzz around Iceland, recent results aren’t favorable.
They failed to win a single tune-up game and most concerning, have conceded several goals, including two to a middling Ghana side that was in the process of abolishing its football federation. If Iceland aren’t compact defensively and difficult to play against, their chances of Viking-Clapping in the Round of 16 are minimal, because they simply aren’t dynamic enough going forward.
Aron Gunnarsson is a tidy passer, but not necessarily a creator, and Gylfi Siggurdson is a masterful free-kick taker but not someone who unlocks defenses 1 v 1, and in truth, he was in better form two summers ago.
As the smallest nation to qualify for the World Cup, Iceland have already moved mountains of ice and fire. The Round of 16 may be a glacier too far.
Croatia are more talented than Iceland, and feature the criminally-underappreciated maestro Luka Modric, but rarely seem to play to the sum of their parts.
When Zlatko Dalic took over, he moved Ivan Rakitic behind Modric, and initially, the move paid dividends, helping Croatia weather their qualifying playoff against a testy Greece.
Mario Mandzukic gives Modric a reliable option up top, and he’s flanked by the versatile line-buster Andrej Kramaric, who helped Hoffenheim to a Champions League place this past season. Dalic has elite options off the bench as well, with Real Madrid’s Mateo Kovacic and Inter’s Marcelo Brozovic substantial talents.
In the end, I don’t trust Iceland on talent and don’t believe Croatia can put it all together for three games despite theirs. That leaves Nigeria, perhaps the team in this group playing with the least pressure, and with just the type of ultra-talented youthful core that often mesmerizes at the World Cup.
I like Argentina to win the group, with Nigeria second, largely because their match order, which involves playing Nigeria last, suits them a bit and puts all the pressure on Croatia to capture full spoils in the Kaliningrad Stadium opener Saturday.
Neil W. Blackmon co-founded TYAC. Follow him on Twitter @nwblackmon.